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Volume 18, issue 5
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3469–3483, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3469–3483, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3469-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 08 Mar 2018

Research article | 08 Mar 2018

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Pavle Arsenovic et al.

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Cited articles

Abreu, J. A., Beer, J., and Ferriz-mas, A.: Past and Future Solar Activity from Cosmogenic Radionuclides, SOHO 23 Underst. a Peculiar Sol. Minim., 428, 287–295, 2010.
Anet, J. G., Rozanov, E. V., Muthers, S., Peter, T., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Beer, J., Shapiro, A. I., Raible, C. C., Steinhilber, F., and Schmutz, W. K.: Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4420–4425, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50806, 2013.
Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014.
Armstrong, B. K. and Kricker, A.: The epidemiology of UV induced skin cancer, J. Photochem. Photobiol. B Biol., 63, 8–18, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1011-1344(01)00198-1, 2001.
Arsenovic, P.: CCM SOCOL3-MPOIM model output, available at: https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/hhrgx238sn, last access: 8 March 2018.
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Short summary
Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an unusually strong and long decline. Decreased ozone production caused by reduction of solar activity and change of atmospheric dynamics due to the global warming might result in further thinning of the tropical ozone layer. Globally, total ozone would not recover to the pre-ozone hole values as long as the decline of solar activity lasts. This may let more ultra-violet radiation reach the Earth's surface.
Global warming will persist in the 21st century, even if the solar activity undergoes an...
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