Uncertainty assessment and applicability of an inversion method for volcanic ash forecasting

Steensen, Birthe Marie; Kylling, Arve; Kristiansen, Nina Iren; Schulz, Michael

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 14

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9205-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 14

Research article

|

31 Jul 2017

Research article |

| 31 Jul 2017

Uncertainty assessment and applicability of an inversion method for volcanic ash forecasting

Birthe Marie Steensen, Arve Kylling, Nina Iren Kristiansen, and Michael Schulz

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Final revised paper (published on 31 Jul 2017)
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Jan 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Mar 2017
- AC1: 'Response to referee review #2', Birthe Marie Steensen, 26 May 2017
SC1: 'Short comment on “Uncertainty assessment and applicability of an inversion method for volcanic ash forecasting” by Birthe Marie Steensen et al.', Sara Barsotti, 30 Mar 2017
- AC2: 'Response to short comment #1', Birthe Marie Steensen, 26 May 2017
RC2: 'review of ms', Roger Denlinger, 01 Apr 2017
- AC3: 'Response to referee review #1', Birthe Marie Steensen, 26 May 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Birthe Marie Steensen on behalf of the Authors (02 Jun 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (09 Jun 2017) by Thomas von Clarmann

Short summary

An inversion method is tested in a forecasting setting for constraining ash dispersion by satellite observations. The sensitivity of a priori and satellite uncertainties is tested for the a posteriori term. The a posteriori is also tested with four different assumptions affecting the retrieved ash satellite data. In forecasting mode, the a posteriori changes after only 12 h of satellite observations and produces better forecasts than a priori.