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Volume 17, issue 6 | Copyright

Special issue: Coupled chemistry–meteorology modelling: status and...

Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 4005-4030, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-4005-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 24 Mar 2017

Research article | 24 Mar 2017

Volcanic ash modeling with the online NMMB-MONARCH-ASH v1.0 model: model description, case simulation, and evaluation

Alejandro Marti1, Arnau Folch1, Oriol Jorba1, and Zavisa Janjic2 Alejandro Marti et al.
  • 1Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Barcelona, Spain
  • 2National Center for Environmental Prediction, College Park, Maryland, USA

Abstract. Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.

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We describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a novel online multi-scale meteorological and transport model developed at the BSC-CNS capable of forecasting the dispersal and deposition of volcanic ash. The forecast skills of the model have been validated and they improve on those from traditional operational offline (decoupled) models. The results support the use of online coupled models to aid civil aviation and emergency management during a crisis such as the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull.
We describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a novel online multi-scale meteorological and...
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