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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 17, issue 4 | Copyright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709-2720, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 22 Feb 2017

Research article | 22 Feb 2017

Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990–2015

Gunnar Myhre1, Wenche Aas2, Ribu Cherian3, William Collins4, Greg Faluvegi5, Mark Flanner6, Piers Forster7, Øivind Hodnebrog1, Zbigniew Klimont8, Marianne T. Lund1, Johannes Mülmenstädt3, Cathrine Lund Myhre2, Dirk Olivié9, Michael Prather10, Johannes Quaas3, Bjørn H. Samset1, Jordan L. Schnell10, Michael Schulz9, Drew Shindell11, Ragnhild B. Skeie1, Toshihiko Takemura12, and Svetlana Tsyro9 Gunnar Myhre et al.
  • 1Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
  • 2NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway
  • 3Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
  • 4Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  • 5NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA
  • 6Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
  • 7School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
  • 8International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • 9Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
  • 10Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
  • 11Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
  • 12Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan

Abstract. Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. −1 to −3%yr−1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by +0.17±0.08Wm−2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the...
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