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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 16, issue 2
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 759–776, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-759-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 759–776, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-759-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 22 Jan 2016

Research article | 22 Jan 2016

The impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the greater North Sea region – Part 2: Scenarios for 2030

V. Matthias1, A. Aulinger1, A. Backes1, J. Bieser1, B. Geyer1, M. Quante1, and M. Zeretzke2 V. Matthias et al.
  • 1Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
  • 2DNV-GL, Brooktorkai 18, 20457 Hamburg, Germany

Abstract. Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea have been developed in the framework of the Clean North Sea Shipping project. The effects of changing NOx and SO2 emissions were investigated with the CMAQ chemistry transport model for the year 2030 in the North Sea area. It has been found that, compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the NO2 and O3 concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 and 5 %, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions is implemented in the North Sea area. PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur contents in ship fuels will be reduced as international regulations foresee. The effects differ largely between regions, seasons and date of the implementation of stricter regulations for NOx emissions from newly built ships.

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Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea were developed. Compared to today, the contribution of shipping to the nitrogen dioxide and ozone concentrations will increase due to the expected enhanced traffic by more than 20 % and 5 %, respectively, by 2030 if no regulation for further emission reductions is implemented. PM2.5 will decrease slightly because the sulfur content in ship fuels will be reduced.
Scenarios for future shipping emissions in the North Sea were developed. Compared to today, the...
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