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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 14, issue 13
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6571-6603, 2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6571-6603, 2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 01 Jul 2014

Research article | 01 Jul 2014

Emission trends and mitigation options for air pollutants in East Asia

S. X. Wang2,1, B. Zhao1, S. Y. Cai1, Z. Klimont3, C. P. Nielsen4, T. Morikawa5, J. H. Woo6, Y. Kim6, X. Fu1, J. Y. Xu1, J. M. Hao2,1, and K. B. He2,1 S. X. Wang et al.
  • 1State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment,
    Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • 2State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex,
    Beijing 100084, China
  • 3International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
  • 4Harvard China Project, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 29 Oxford St,
    Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
  • 5Japan Automobile Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 6Department of Advanced Technology Fusion, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea

Abstract. Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia play an important role in the regional and global atmospheric environment. In this study we evaluated the recent emission trends of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in East Asia, and projected their future emissions up until 2030 with six emission scenarios. The results will provide future emission projections for the modeling community of the model inter-comparison program for Asia (MICS-Asia). During 2005–2010, the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 in East Asia decreased by 15 and 12%, respectively, mainly attributable to the large-scale deployment of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) at China's power plants, and the promotion of highly efficient PM removal technologies in China's power plants and cement industry. During this period, the emissions of NOx and NMVOC increased by 25 and 15%, driven by rapid increase in the emissions from China due to inadequate control strategies. In contrast, the NOx and NMVOC emissions in East Asia except China decreased by 13–17%, mainly due to the implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards in Japan and South Korea. Under current regulations and current levels of implementation, NOx, SO2, and NMVOC emissions in East Asia are projected to increase by about one-quarter over 2010 levels by 2030, while PM2.5 emissions are expected to decrease by 7%. Assuming enforcement of new energy-saving policies, emissions of NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and NMVOC in East Asia are expected to decrease by 28, 36, 28, and 15%, respectively, compared with the baseline case. The implementation of "progressive" end-of-pipe control measures would lead to another one-third reduction of the baseline emissions of NOx, and about one-quarter reduction of SO2, PM2.5, and NMVOC. Assuming the full application of technically feasible energy-saving policies and end-of-pipe control technologies, the emissions of NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 in East Asia would account for only about one-quarter, and NMVOC for one-third, of the levels of the baseline projection. Compared with previous projections, this study projects larger reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions by considering aggressive governmental plans and standards scheduled to be implemented in the next decade, and quantifies the significant effects of detailed progressive control measures on NMVOC emissions up until 2030.

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