Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9471-9489, 2009
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/9471/2009/
doi:10.5194/acp-9-9471-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Est modus in rebus: analytical properties of multi-model ensembles
S. Potempski1,2 and S. Galmarini1
1European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, 21020 Ispra VA, Italy
2Institute of Atomic Energy, 05-400 Otwock-Swierk, Poland

Abstract. In this paper we investigate some basic properties of the multi-model ensemble systems, which can be deduced from a general characteristic of statistical distributions of the ensemble members with the help of mathematical tools. In particular we show how to find optimal linear combination of model results, which minimizes the mean square error both in the case of uncorrelated and correlated models. By proving basic estimations we try to deduce general properties describing multi-model ensemble systems. We show also how mathematical formalism can be used for investigation of the characteristics of such systems.

Citation: Potempski, S. and Galmarini, S.: Est modus in rebus: analytical properties of multi-model ensembles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9471-9489, doi:10.5194/acp-9-9471-2009, 2009.
 
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