Est modus in rebus: analytical properties of multi-model ensembles 1European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, 21020 Ispra VA, Italy
2Institute of Atomic Energy, 05-400 Otwock-Swierk, Poland
Received: 03 Mar 2009 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 01 Jul 2009 Abstract. In this paper we investigate some basic properties of the multi-model
ensemble systems, which can be deduced from a general characteristic of
statistical distributions of the ensemble members with the help of
mathematical tools. In particular we show how to find optimal linear
combination of model results, which minimizes the mean square error both in
the case of uncorrelated and correlated models. By proving basic estimations
we try to deduce general properties describing multi-model ensemble systems.
We show also how mathematical formalism can be used for investigation of the
characteristics of such systems.
Revised: 24 Nov 2009 – Accepted: 01 Dec 2009 – Published: 16 Dec 2009
Citation: Potempski, S. and Galmarini, S.: Est modus in rebus: analytical properties of multi-model ensembles, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9471-9489, doi:10.5194/acp-9-9471-2009, 2009.