Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 9 3 2009 10.5194/acp-9-865-2009 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/865/2009/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/865/2009/acp-9-865-2009.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/865/2009/acp-9-865-2009.pdf 865 878 2009-02-03 Quantification of the impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality K.-J. Liao E. Tagaris K. Manomaiphiboon C. Wang J.-H. Woo P. Amar S. He A. G. Russell ted.russell@ce.gatech.edu School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, MA, USA Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Boston, MA, USA Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand Department of Advanced Technology Fusion, Konkuk University, Seoul, Korea Uncertainties in calculated impacts of climate forecasts on future regional air quality are investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS and MIT IGSM global models and the CMAQ model in 2050 in the continental US. Differences between three future scenarios: high-extreme, low-extreme and base case, are used for quantifying effects of climate uncertainty on regional air quality. GISS, with the IPCC A1B scenario, is used for the base case simulations. IGSM results, in the form of probabilistic distributions, are used to perturb the base case climate to provide the high- and low-extreme scenarios. Impacts of the extreme climate scenarios on concentrations of summertime fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone are predicted to be up to 10 ppbV (about one-seventh of the current US ozone standard of 75 ppbV) in urban areas of the Northeast, Midwest and Texas due to impacts of meteorological changes, especially temperature and humidity, on the photochemistry of tropospheric ozone formation and increases in biogenic VOC emissions, though the differences in average peak ozone concentrations are about 1–2 ppbV on a regional basis. Differences between the extreme and base scenarios in annualized PM_2.5 levels are very location dependent and predicted to range between −1.0 and +1.5 μg m^−3. 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