Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 9 8 2009 10.5194/acp-9-2695-2009 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2695/2009/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2695/2009/acp-9-2695-2009.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/2695/2009/acp-9-2695-2009.pdf 2695 2714 2009-04-23 The impact of weather and atmospheric circulation on O₃ and PM₁₀ levels at a rural mid-latitude site M. Demuzere matthias.demuzere@ees.kuleuven.be R. M. Trigo J. Vila-Guerau de Arellano N. P. M. van Lipzig Earth and environmental Sciences, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee (Leuven), Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium Centro de Geofísica da Universidade de Lisboa (CGUL), IDL, University of Lisbon, Fac. Ciencias, Campo Grande, Ed. C8, Piso 6, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal Meteorology and Air Quality Section, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands In spite of the strict EU regulations, concentrations of surface ozone and PM₁₀ often exceed the pollution standards for the Netherlands and Europe. Their concentrations are controlled by (precursor) emissions, social and economic developments and a complex combination of meteorological actors. This study tackles the latter, and provides insight in the meteorological processes that play a role in O₃ and PM₁₀ levels in rural mid-latitudes sites in the Netherlands. The relations between meteorological actors and air quality are studied on a local scale based on observations from four rural sites and are determined by a comprehensive correlation analysis and a multiple regression (MLR) analysis in 2 modes, with and without air quality variables as predictors. Furthermore, the objective Lamb Weather Type approach is used to assess the influence of the large-scale circulation on air quality. Keeping in mind its future use in downscaling future climate scenarios for air quality purposes, special emphasis is given to an appropriate selection of the regressor variables readily available from operational meteorological forecasts or AOGCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Models). The regression models perform satisfactory, especially for O₃, with an (<i>R</i>² of 57.0% and 25.0% for PM₁₀. Including previous day air quality information increases significantly the models performance by 15% (O₃) and 18% (PM₁₀). The Lamb weather types show a seasonal distinct pattern for high (low) episodes of average O₃ and PM₁₀ concentrations, and these are clear related with the meteorology-air quality correlation analysis. Although using a circulation type approach can provide important additional physical relations forward, our analysis reveals the circulation method is limited in terms of short-term air quality forecast for both O₃ and PM₁₀ (<i>R</i>² between 0.12 and 23%). 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