ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-9-1503-2009 Evolution of NO<sub>x</sub> emissions in Europe with focus on road transport control measures Vestreng V. 1 6 Ntziachristos L. 2 Semb A. 3 Reis S. 4 Isaksen I. S. A. 5 Tarrasón L. 1 Air Pollution Section, Research Department, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Lab of Applied Thermodynamics, Aristotle University Thessaloniki, Greece Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway now at: The Norwegian Pollution Contorul Authority, Department of Climate and Industry, P.O. Box 8100 Dep, 0032 Oslo, Norway 23 02 2009 9 4 1503 1520 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/1503/2009/acp-9-1503-2009.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/1503/2009/acp-9-1503-2009.pdf

European emission trends of nitrogen oxides since 1880 and up to present are presented here and are linked to the evolution of road transport emissions. Road transport has been the dominating source of NO<sub>x</sub> emissions since 1970, and contributes with 40% to the total emissions in 2005. Five trend regimes have been identified between 1880 and 2005. The first regime (1880–1950) is determined by a slow increase in fuel consumption all over Europe. The second regime (1950–1980) is characterized by a continued steep upward trend in liquid fuel use and by the introduction of the first regulations on road traffic emissions. Reduction in fuel consumption determines the emission trends in the third regime (1980–1990) that is also characterized by important differences between Eastern and Western Europe. Emissions from road traffic continue to grow in Western Europe in this period, and it is argued here that the reason for this continued NO<sub>x</sub> emission increase is related to early inefficient regulations for NO<sub>x</sub> in the transport sector. The fourth regime (1990–2000) involves a turning point for road traffic emissions, with a general decrease of emissions in Europe during that decade. It is in this period that we can identify the first emission reductions due to technological abatement in Western Europe. In the fifth regime (2000–2005), the economic recovery in Eastern Europe imposes increased emission from road traffic in this area. Western European emissions are on the other hand decoupled from the fuel consumption, and continue to decrease. The implementation of strict measures to control NO<sub>x</sub> emissions is demonstrated here to be a main reason for the continued Western European emission reductions. The results indicate that even though the effectiveness of European standards is hampered by a slow vehicle turnover, loopholes in the type-approval testing, and an increase in diesel consumption, the effect of such technical abatement measures is traceable in the evolution of European road traffic emissions over the last 15 years.

 References % vor jede Referenz ACEA: DIESEL: Historical series: 1990–2006 by vehicle category, European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, 2007, data available at: http://www.acea.be, 2008. % vor jede Referenz AQEG: Trends in Primary Nitrogen Dioxide in the UK, Air Quality Expert Group, Prepared for: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Scottish Executive, Welsh Assembly Government, and Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland, London, UK, ISBN 978-0-85521-179-0, 156 pp., available at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/airquality/publications (last access: 16 February 2009), 2006. % vor jede Referenz Anderl, M., Kampel, E., Köther, T., Munik., B., Schodl, B., Poupa, S., and Wieser, M.: Austria's Informative Inventory Report 2007, Unweltbundesamt GmgH, Vienna, ISBN 3-85457-879-2, 378 pp., 2007. % vor jede Referenz Berg, W.: Legislation for the Reduction of Exhaust Gas Emissions, The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 3, 175–253, doi:10.1007/b10463, 2003. % vor jede Referenz Carslaw, D. C., Beevers, S. D., and Bell, M. C.: Risks of exceeding the hourly EU limit value for nitrogen dioxide resulting from increased road transport emissions of primary nitrogen dioxide, Atmos. Environ., 41, 2073–2082, 2007. % vor jede Referenz Cofala, J., Amann, M., Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., and Höglund-Isaksson, L.: Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and Methane until 2030, Atmos. Environ., 41, 8486–8499, 2007. % vor jede Referenz COPERT: http://lat.eng.auth.gr/copert/, last access: 16 February 2009. % vor jede Referenz DEHLG, 2006: Paper prepared for the UNECE Implementation Committee to support Ireland's reasons for adjusting road transport inventories to meet Ireland's obligations under the Sofia Protocol, The Department of the Environment Heritage and Local Government (DEHLG), Dublin, Ireland, 2006. % vor jede Referenz Dignon, J. and Hameed, S.: Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980, JAPCA, 39, 180–186, 1989. EC: Council Durective 96/61/EC of 24 September 1996 concerning integrated pollution and control, OJ L 257, 10.10.1996, 26–40, available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu (last access: 16 February 2009), 1996. % vor jede Referenz EC: Directive 2001/81/EC. A consolidated NEC Directive for the EU 27 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pollutants/ceilings.htm (last access: 16 February 2009), 2001a. % vor jede Referenz EC: Directive 2001/80/EC of the European Parliament and Council of 23 October 201 on the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from large combustion plants, OJ L 309 of 27.11.2001, 1–21, available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu (last access: 16 February 2009), 2001b. % vor jede Referenz EDGAR emission data: http://www.mnp.nl/edgar, last access: 16 February 2009. % vor jede Referenz EEA: Europe's environment, The fourth assessment, (Belgrade report), EEA (European Environment Agency) and OPOCE (Office for Official Publications of the European Communities), Copenhagen, ISBN 978-92-9167-932-4, 452 pp., 2007, available at: http://reports.eea.europa.eu/ (last access: 16 February 2009), 2007. % vor jede Referenz EEA, 2008: Air pollution from electric-generating large combustion plants. An assessment of the theoretical emission reduction of SO<sub>2</sub> and NO<sub>x</sub> through implementation of BAT as set in the BREFs, EEA Technical report No. 4/2008, European Environmental Agency, Copenhagen, ISSN 1725-2237, ISBN 987-92-9167-355-1, 2008. % vor jede Referenz Ekström, M., Sjödin, Å., and Andreasson, K.: Evaluation of the COPERT III emission model with on-road optical remote sensing measurements, Atmos. Environ, 38, 6631–6641, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.07.019, 2004. % vor jede Referenz EMEP/CORINAIR guidebook: http://reports.eea.europa.eu/EMEPCORINAIR4/en, last access: 16 February 2009. % vor jede Referenz Fagerli, H. and Aas, W.: Trends of nitrogen in air and precipitation: Model results and observations at EMEP sites in Europe, 1980–2003 Environ. Pollut., 154, 3, 448–461, doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2008.01.024, 2008. GAINS model: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains, last access: 16 February 2009. % vor jede Referenz Glover, C. and Behrens, C. E.: Energy: Selected facts and numbers, Congressional Research Service Report RL31849, Washington, DC, USA, available at: http://www.ncseonline.org/NLE/CRS/abstract.cfm?NLEid=311 (last access: 16 February 2009), 2006. % vor jede Referenz Granier, C. and Brasseur, G. P: The impact of road traffic on global tropospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(2), 1086, doi:10.1029/2002GL015972, 2003. % vor jede Referenz Gros, D. and Steinherr, A.: Economic reform in the Soviet Union: Pas de deux between disintegration and macroeconomic destabilization, Princeton studies in international finance, 71, ISBN 0-88165-243-1, 88 pp., New Jersey, USA, 1991. % vor jede Referenz Hausberger, S. and Rexeis, M.: Emission behaviour of modern heavy duty vehicles in real world driving, Int. J. Environ. Pollut., 22, 275–286, 2004. % vor jede Referenz Jonson, J. E., Simpson, D., Fagerli, H., and Solberg, S.: Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 51–66, 2006. % vor jede Referenz Jonson, J. E., Tarrasón, L., Cofala, J., Whall, C. L., Klein, H., and Vestreng, V.: Effects of ship emissions on European ground level ozone in 2020, Int. J. Remote Sens., accepted, 2008. % vor jede Referenz Kirchstetter, T. W., Harley, R. A., Kreisberg, N. M., Stolzenburg, M. R., and Hering, S. V.: On-road measurement of fine particle and nitrogen oxide emissions from light- and heavy-duty motor vehicles, Atmos. Environ., 33, 2955–2968, 1999. % vor jede Referenz Kohler, M., Corsmeier, U., Vogt, U., and Vogel, B.: Estimation of gaseous real-world traffic emissions downstream a motorway, Atmos. Environ., 39, 5665–5684, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.09.088, 2005. % vor jede Referenzs Konovalov, I. B., Beekmann, M., Burrows, J. P., and Richter, A.: Satellite measurement based estimates of decadal changes in European nitrogen oxides emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 2623–2641, 2008. % vor jede Referenz Kristensson, A., Johansson, C., Westerholm, R, Swietlicki, E., Gidhagen, L., Widequist, U., and Vesely, V.: Real-world traffic emission factors of gases and particles measured in a road tunnel in Stockholm, Sweden, Atmos. Environ., 38, 657–673, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2003.10.030, 2003. % vor jede Referenz Kühlwein, J. and Friedrich, R.: Uncertainties of modelling emissions from road transport, Atmos. Environ., 34, 4603–4610, 2000. % vor jede Referenz Lambrecht, U.: Legislation and future requirements for NO<sub>x</sub> reduction, IQPC Conference, 24th–26th September 2007, Frankfurt, Germany, 2007. % vor jede Referenz Matthes, S., Grewe, V., Sausen, R., and Roelofs, G.-J.: Global impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1707–1718, 2007. % vor jede Referenz McInnes, G.: EMEP/CORINAIR Atmospheric Emission Inventory guidebook, first edition, EEA, 950 pp., 1996. % vor jede Referenz Mitchell, B. R.: European Historical Statistics 1750–1975, second revised edition, Butler & Tanner Ltd., Frome and London, 868 pp., ISBN 0333 292154, 1981. % vor jede Referenz Naja, M., Akimoto, H., and Staehelin, J.: Ozone in background and photochemically aged air over central Europe: Analysis of long-term ozonesonde data from Hohenpeissenberg and Payerne, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D2), 4063, doi:10.1029/2002JD002477, 2003. % vor jede Referenz Ntziachristos, L. and Samaras, Z.: Speed-dependent Representative Emission Factors for Catalyst Passenger Cars and Influencing Parameters, Atmos. Environ., 34, 4611–4619, 2000. % vor jede Referenz OECD: Energy Statistics 1950–1964, OECD, Paris, 1966. % vor jede Referenz OECD: Energy Statistics, OECD, OLISnet, www.oecd.int/olis, 2004. % vor jede Referenz OECD activity data: https://www.oecd.int/olis, last access: 16 February 2009. % vor jede Referenz Olivier, J. G. J., Bouwman, A. F., Vender Hoek, K. W., and Berdowski, J. J. M: Global air emission inventories for anthropogenic sources of NO<sub>x</sub>, NH<sub>3</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O in 1990, Environ. Pollut., 102(S1), 135–148, 1998. % vor jede Referenz Pacyna, J. M., Larssen, S., and Semb, A.: European survey for NO<sub>x</sub> emissions with emphasis on Eastern-Europe, Atmos. Environ., 25A, 425–439, 1991. % vor jede Referenz RAINS/GAINS model: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/apd/gains, last access: 16 February 2009. % vor jede Referenz Reis, S., Simpson, D., Friedrich, R, Jonson, J. E., Unger, S., and Obermeier, A.: Road traffic emissions – predictions of future contributions to regional ozone levels in Europe, Atmos. Environ., 34, 4701–4710, 2000. % vor jede Referenz Samaras, Z. and Zierock, K.-H.: Road Transport, in: EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook, edited by: McInnes, G., first edition, 1996. % vor jede Referenz Schmid, H., Pucher, E., Ellinger, R., Biebl, P., and Puxbaum, H.: Decadal reductions of traffic emissions on a transit route in Austria – results from the Tauerntunnel experiment 1997, Atmos. Environ., 35, 3585–3593, 2001. % vor jede Referenz Schultz, M.: Reanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years, A long-term global modelling study of tropospheric chemistry, Emission data sets and methodologies for estimating emissions, Work Package 1, Deliverable D1-6, EU-Contract No. EVH2-CT-2002-00170, available at: http://www.retro.enes.org/reports/D1-6_final.pdf (last access: 16 February 2009), 2007. % vor jede Referenz Schöpp, W., Posch, M., Mylona, S., and Johansson, M.: Long-term development of acid deposition (1880–2030) in sensitive freshwater regions in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 436–446, 2003. % vor jede Referenz Schöpp, W., Klimont, Z., Suutari, R., and Cofala, J.: Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model, Environ. Sci. Policy, 8, 601–613, doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2005.06.008, 2005. % vor jede Referenz Simpson, D., Winiwarter, W., Börjesson, G., Cinderby, S., Ferreiro, A., Guenther, A., Hewitt, C. N., Janson, R., Khalil, M. A. K., Owen, S., Pierce, T. E., Puxbaum, H., Shearer, M., Skiba, U., Steinbrecher, R., Tarrasón, L., and Öquist, M. G.: Inventorying emissions from nature in Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 8113–8152, 1999. % vor jede Referenz Stohl, A., Williams, E., Wotawa, G., and Kromp-Kolb, H.: A European inventory of soil nitric oxide emissions and the effect of these emissions on the photochemical formation of ozone, Atmos. Environ., 30(22), 3741–3755, 1996. % vor jede Referenz Takacs, T. J., Juedes, D. L., and Crane, I. D.: Method estimates NO<sub>x</sub> from combustion equipment, Oil Gas J., 102(23), 48–52, 2004. % vor jede Referenz UNECE: Regulation 15, Annex to the 1958 agreement, Geneva, Switzerland, http://www.unece.org/trans/main/wp29/wp29regs1-20.html (last access: 16 February 2009), 1958. % vor jede Referenz UNECE: World energy supplies 1950–1974, Stat Pap No 19, United Nations, New York, USA, 1976. % vor jede Referenz UNECE: Yearbook of World Energy Statistics, United Nations, New York, USA, 1980. % vor jede Referenz UNECE: Energy statistics yearbook, United Nations, New York, USA, 1981. % vor jede Referenz UNECE: Emission Reporting Guidelines, Air Pollution Studies No 15, 2003, available at: http://www.unece.org/env/documents/2003/eb/air/ece.eb.air.80.E.pdf (last access: 16 February 2009), 2003. % vor jede Referenz UNECE: Handbook for the 1979 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and its Protocols, United Nations, New York and Geneva, ECE/EB.AIR.5, ISBN 92-1-116895-32004, http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/ (including amendment of December 2005), 2004. % vor jede Referenz UNECE: Review of the Gothenburg Protocol, Report from the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling of the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, available at: http://www.emep.int/ (last access: 16 February 2009), 2007. % vor jede Referenz US EPA: AP-42: US Environmental Protection Agency, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, available at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/ap42.htm (last access: 16 February 2009), Appendix H, 1991. % vor jede Referenz Van Aardenne, J. A., Dentener, F. J., Olivier, J. G. J., Klein Goldewijk, C. G. M., and Lelieveld, J.: A 1&deg;&times;1&deg; resolution dataset of historical anthropogenic trace gas emissions for the period 1890–1990, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15(4), 909–928, 2001. % vor jede Referenz Vestreng, V., Tarrasón, L., Rigler, E., Klein., H., and Benedictiw, A. C.: Emissions: progress towards the emission ceilings in the Gothenburg Protocol, Chapter 2 in EMEP Status report 1/2006 to support the Review of the Gothenburg Protocol, Transboundary acidification, eutrophication and ground level ozone in Europe since 1990 to 2004, ISSN 1504-6109, Oslo, Norway, available at: http://www.emep.int (last access: 16 February 2009), 2006. % vor jede Referenz Vestreng, V., Mareckova, K., Kakareka, S., Malchykhina, A., and Kukharchyk, T.: Inventory review 2007, Emission data reported to LRTAP and NEC Directive, Stage 1 and 2 review, review of gridded data and review of PM inventories in Belarus, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, EMEP technical report 1/2007, ISSN 1504-6079, Oslo, Norway, available at: http://www.emep.int (last access: 16 February 2009), 2007a. % vor jede Referenz Vestreng, V., Myhre, G., Fagerli, H., Reis, S., and Tarrasón, L.: Twenty-five years of continuous sulphur dioxide emission reduction in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 3663–3681, 2007b. % vor jede Referenz WEBDAB: http://www.ceip.at/emission-data-webdab, last access: 16 February 2009. % vor jede Referenz World Power Conference: Statistical yearbook of the world conference, No. 4: Data on the resources and annual statistics for 1936–1946, London, UK, 1948. % vor jede Referenz Yanowitz, J., Mccormick, R. L., and Graboski, M. S.: In-use Emissions from Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles, Environ. Sci. Technol., 34, 5, 729–740, 2000. % vor jede Referenz Zachariadis, T., Ntziachristos, L., and, Samaras, Z: The Effect of Age and Technological Change on Motor Vehicle Emissions, Transportation Research Part D, 6, 221–227, 2001.