Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models K. Tourpali1, A. F. Bais1, A. Kazantzidis1, C. S. Zerefos2, H. Akiyoshi3, J. Austin4, C. Brühl5, N. Butchart6, M. P. Chipperfield7, M. Dameris8, M. Deushi9, V. Eyring8, M. A. Giorgetta10, D. E. Kinnison11, E. Mancini12, D. R. Marsh11, T. Nagashima3, G. Pitari12, D. A. Plummer13, E. Rozanov14, K. Shibata9, and W. Tian7 1Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece 2Laboratory of Climatology, Faculty of Geology, University of Athens, Greece 3National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 4UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA 5Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany 6Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UK 7Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, UK 8Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 9Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan 10Max-Plank-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany 11National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA 12Università L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy 13Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada 14Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETHZ and Physical-Meteorological Observatory, Davos, World Radiation Centre, Switzerland
Abstract. We have estimated changes in surface solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation under
cloud free conditions in the 21st century based on simulations of 11
coupled Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs). The total ozone columns and
vertical profiles of ozone and temperature projected from CCMs were used as
input to a radiative transfer model in order to calculate the corresponding
erythemal irradiance levels. Time series of monthly erythemal irradiance
received at the surface during local noon are presented for the period 1960
to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the
surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected
stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of
the 21st century and smaller towards its end. This decreasing tendency
varies with latitude, being more pronounced over areas where stratospheric
ozone has been depleted the most after 1980. Between 2000 and 2100 surface
erythemal irradiance is projected to decrease over midlatitudes by 5 to
15%, while at the southern high latitudes the decrease is twice as much.
In this study we have not included effects from changes in cloudiness,
surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, which will likely be
affected in the future due to climate change. Consequently, over some areas
the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the
evolution of these parameters.
Citation: Tourpali, K., Bais, A. F., Kazantzidis, A., Zerefos, C. S., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Eyring, V., Giorgetta, M. A., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini, E., Marsh, D. R., Nagashima, T., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Shibata, K., and Tian, W.: Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1165-1172, doi:10.5194/acp-9-1165-2009, 2009.