ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-8-7755-2008 Interannual-to-decadal variability of the stratosphere during the 20th century: ensemble simulations with a chemistry-climate model Fischer A. M. 1 Schraner M. 1 Rozanov E. 1 2 Kenzelmann P. 1 Schnadt Poberaj C. 1 Brunner D. 3 Lustenberger A. 1 Luo B. P. 1 Bodeker G. E. 4 Egorova T. 2 Schmutz W. 2 Peter T. 1 Brönnimann S. 1 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland Physical-Meteorological Observatory/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland Empa, Materials Science & Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, Central Otago, New Zealand 23 12 2008 8 24 7755 7777 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/7755/2008/acp-8-7755-2008.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/7755/2008/acp-8-7755-2008.pdf

Interannual-to-decadal variability in stratospheric ozone and climate have a number of common sources, such as variations in solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol loading due to volcanic eruptions, El Niño Southern Oscillation variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Currently available data records as well as model simulations addressing stratospheric chemical climate variability mostly cover only the past few decades, which is often insufficient to address natural interannual-to-decadal variability. Here we make use of recently reconstructed and re-evaluated data products to force and validate transient ensemble model simulations (nine members) across the twentieth century computed by means of the chemistry-climate model SOCOL (SOlar Climate Ozone Links). The forcings include sea surface temperatures, sea ice, solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosols, QBO, changes in land properties, greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and emissions of carbon monoxides, and nitrogen oxides. The transient simulations are in good agreement with observations, reconstructions and reanalyses and allow quantification of interannual-to-decadal variability during the 20th century. All ensemble members are able to capture the low-frequency variability in tropical and mid-latitude total ozone as well as in the strength of the subtropical jet, suggesting a realistic response to external forcings in this area. The region of the northern polar vortex exhibits a large internal variability that is found in the frequency, seasonality, and strength of major warmings as well as in the strength of the modeled polar vortex. Results from process-oriented analysis, such as correlation between the vertical Eliassen Palm flux (EP flux) component and polar variables as well as stratospheric ozone trends, are of comparable magnitude to those observed and are consistent in all analysed ensemble members. Yet, trend estimates of the vertical EP flux component vary greatly among ensemble members precluding any robust conclusions. This suggests that internal variability in models must be accounted for in order to quantify the atmospheric model response in wave energy upon external forcings.

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