Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 8 21 2008 10.5194/acp-8-6405-2008 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/6405/2008/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/6405/2008/acp-8-6405-2008.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/6405/2008/acp-8-6405-2008.pdf 6405 6437 2008-11-11 Influence of future air pollution mitigation strategies on total aerosol radiative forcing S. Kloster F. Dentener frank.dentener@jrc.it J. Feichter F. Raes J. van Aardenne E. Roeckner U. Lohmann P. Stier R. Swart European Commission, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (VA), Italy Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Switzerland University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford, UK EEA European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC), MNP, Bilthoven, The Netherlands now at: Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA We apply different aerosol and aerosol precursor emission scenarios reflecting possible future control strategies for air pollution in the ECHAM5-HAM model, and simulate the resulting effect on the Earth's radiation budget. We use two opposing future mitigation strategies for the year 2030: one in which emission reduction legislation decided in countries throughout the world are effectively implemented (current legislation; CLE 2030) and one in which all technical options for emission reductions are being implemented independent of their cost (maximum feasible reduction; MFR 2030). <br><br> We consider the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. The total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation between 2000 and pre-industrial times amounts to &minus;2.00 W/m². In the future this negative global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing will only slightly change (+0.02 W/m²) under the "current legislation" scenario. Regionally, the effects are much larger: e.g. over Eastern Europe radiative forcing would increase by +1.50 W/m² because of successful aerosol reduction policies, whereas over South Asia it would decrease by &minus;1.10 W/m² because of further growth of emissions. A "maximum feasible reduction" of aerosols and their precursors would lead to an increase of the global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing by +1.13 W/m². Hence, in the latter case, the present day negative anthropogenic aerosol forcing could be more than halved by 2030 because of aerosol reduction policies and climate change thereafter will be to a larger extent be controlled by greenhouse gas emissions. <br><br> We combined these two opposing future mitigation strategies for a number of experiments focusing on different sectors and regions. 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