ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-8-6103-2008 Assimilation of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures from MLS and SABER into a global NWP model Hoppel K. W. 1 Baker N. L. 2 Coy L. 1 Eckermann S. D. 3 McCormack J. P. 3 Nedoluha G. E. 1 Siskind D. E. 3 Remote Sensing Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington DC, USA Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, USA Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington DC, USA 22 10 2008 8 20 6103 6116 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/6103/2008/acp-8-6103-2008.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/6103/2008/acp-8-6103-2008.pdf

The forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ~100 km. This NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesospheric temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instruments. A 60-day analysis period in January and February 2006, was chosen that includes a well documented stratospheric sudden warming. SABER and MLS temperatures indicate that the SSW caused the polar winter stratopause at ~40 km to disappear, then reform at ~80 km altitude and slowly descend during February. The NOGAPS-ALPHA analysis reproduces this observed stratospheric and mesospheric temperature structure, as well as realistic evolution of zonal winds, residual velocities, and Eliassen-Palm fluxes that aid interpretation of the vertically deep circulation and eddy flux anomalies that developed in response to this wave-breaking event. The observation minus forecast (O-F) standard deviations for MLS and SABER are ~2 K in the mid-stratosphere and increase monotonically to about 6 K in the upper mesosphere. Increasing O-F standard deviations in the mesosphere are expected due to increasing instrument error and increasing geophysical variance at small spatial scales in the forecast model. In the mid/high latitude winter regions, 10-day forecast skill is improved throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere when the model is initialized using the high-altitude analysis based on assimilation of both SABER and MLS data.

 References Alexander, M. J., Gille, J. C., Cavanaugh, C., Coffey, M. T., Craig, C., Eden, T., Francis, G., Halvorsen, C., Hannigan, J. W., Khosravi,R., Kinnison, D. E., Lee, H., Massie, S. T., Nardi, B., Barnett, J. J., Hepplewhite, C., Lambert, A., and Dean, V.: Global estimates of gravity wave momentum flux from High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) observations, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15S18, doi:10.1029/2007JD008807, 2008. Allen, D. R., Coy, L., Eckermann, S. D., McCormack, J. P., Manney, G. L., Hogan, T. F., and Kim, Y.-J.: NOGAPS-ALPHA simulations of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric major warming, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 498–518, 2006. Baker, N. L., Hogan, T. F., Campbell, W. F., Pauley, R. L., and Swadley, S. D.: The impact of the AMSU-A radiance assimilation in the US Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), Naval Research Laboratory, NRL/MR/7500-05-8836, 2005. Baker, N. L., Goerss, J., Sashegyi, K., Pauley, P., Langland, R., Xu, L., Blankenship, C., Campbell, B., and Ruston, B.: An overview of the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation (NAVDAS) and NAVDAS-AR (Accelerated Representer) Systems, 18th AMS conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 25–29 June, Park City, UT, Paper 2B.1, 6 pp., online available at: http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124031.pdf, 2007. Ballish, B., Cao, X., Kalnay, E., and Kanamitsu, M.: Incremental nonlinear normal-mode initialization, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 1723–1734, 1992. Bloom, S., da Silva, A., Dee, D., Bosilovich, M., Chern, J.-D., Pawson, S., Schubert, S., Sienkiewicz, M., Stajner, I., Tan, W.-W., and Wu, M.-L.: Documentation and Validation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System – Version 4, Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation 104606, 26, online available at: http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/Bloom168.pdf, 2005. Chou, M.-D. and Suarez, M. J.: A solar radiation parameterization for atmospheric studies, NASA Tech. Memo. NASA/TM-1999-104606, 15, Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, edited by: Suarez, M. J., online available at: http://ntrs.nasa.gov, 40 pp., 1999. Chou, M.-D., Suarez, M. J., Liang, X.-Z., and Yan, M. M.-H.: A thermal infrared radiation parameterization for atmospheric studies, NASA Tech. Memo. NASA/TM-2001-104606, 19, Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, edited by: Suarez, M. J., online available at: http://ntrs.nasa.gov, 56 pp., 2001. Coy, L., Allen, D. R., Eckermann, S. D., McCormack, J. P., Stajner, I., and Hogan, T. F.: Effects of model chemistry and data biases on stratospheric ozone assimilation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2917–2935, 2007. Coy, L., Eckermann, S. D., and Hoppel, K. W.: Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the stratospheric sudden warming of 2006, J. Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1175/2008JAS2784.1, 2008. Daley, R.: Atmospheric Data Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 457 pp., 1991. Daley, R. and Barker, E.: NAVDAS Source Book 2001, NRL/PU/7530-01-444, Available from the Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, USA, online available at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sec7531.htm, 163 pp., 2001. Dee, D. P. and da Silva, A. M.: The choice of variable for atmospheric moisture analysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 155–171, 2003. Eckermann, S. D., McCormack, J. P., Coy, L., Allen, D., Hogan, T., and Kim, Y.-J.: NOGAPS-ALPHA: A prototype high altitude global NWP model, Preprint Vol. Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, American Meteorological Society, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, 14–17 June 2004, Paper P2.6, online available at: http://uap-www.nrl.navy.mil/dynamics/papers/Eckermann_P2.6-reprint.pdf, 23 pp., 2004. Eckermann S. D., Broutman, D., Stollberg, M. T., Ma, J., McCormack, J. P., and Hogan, T. F.: Atmospheric effects of the total solar eclipse of 4 December 2002 simulated with a high-altitude global model, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D14105, doi:10.1029/2006JD007880, 2007. Eckermann, S. D.: Hybrid σ-p coordinate choices for a global model, Mon. Weather Rev., doi:10.1175/2008MWR2537.1, 2008a. Eckermann, S. D., Hoppel, K. W., Coy, L., McCormack, J. P., Siskind, D. E., Nielsen, K., Kochenash, A., Stevens, M. H., Englert, C. R., and Hervig, M.: High-altitude data assimilation system experiments for the northern summer mesosphere season of 2007, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. (accepted), 2008b. Emanuel, K. A. and Zivkovic-Rothman, M.: Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1766–1782, 1999. Errico, R. M., Barker, E. H., and Gelaro, R.: A determination of balanced normal modes for two models, Mon. Weather Rev., 116, 2717–2724, 1988. Fomichev, V. I., Blanchet, J.-P., and Turner, D. S.: Matrix parameterization of the 15 μm CO<sub>2</sub> band cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere for variable CO<sub>2</sub> concentration, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 11 505–11 528, 1998. Fomichev V. I., Ogibalov, V. P., and Beagley, S. R.: Solar heating by the near-IR CO<sub>2</sub> bands in the mesosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L21102, doi:10.1029/2004GL020324, 2004. Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A., and Sassi, F.: Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09301, doi:10.1029/2006JD007485, 2007. Han, Y., Weng, F., Liu, Q., and van Delst, P.: A fast radiative transfer model for SSMIS upper atmosphere sounding channels, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D11121, doi:10.1029/2006JD008208, 2007. Harshvardhan, Davies, R., Randall, D., and Corsetti, T.: A fast radiation parameterization for atmospheric circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 1009–1016, 1987. Hoffmann, P., Singer, W., Keuer, D., Hocking, W. K., Kunze, M., and Murayama, Y.: Latitudinal and longitudinal variability of mesospheric winds and temperatures during stratospheric warming events, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 69, 947–961, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2007.06.010, 2007. Hogan, T. F.: Land surface modeling in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, Paper 11B.1, Preprint Vol., 22nd AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, USA, 25–29 June 2007, online available at: http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/paper_123403.htm, 2007. Hogan, T. F. and Rosmond, T. E.: The description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's spectral forecast model, Mon. Weather Rev. 119, 1186–1815. 1991. Hogan, T. F., Rosmond, T. E., and Gelaro, R.: The NOGAPS forecast model: a technical description, Naval Oceanographic and Atmospheric Research Laboratory Report No. 13, 219 pp., 1991. Jung, T. and Leutbecher, M.: Performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in the Arctic during winter, Q. J. Roy Meteor. Soc., 133, doi:10.1002/qj.99, 1327–1340, 2007. Koshyk, J. N., Boville, B. A., Hamilton, K., Manzini, E., and Shibata, K.: Kinetic energy spectrum of horizontal motions in middle-atmosphere models, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D22), 27 177–27 190, 1999. Kutepov, A. A., Feofilov, A. G., Marshall, B. T., Gordley, L. L., Pesnell, W. D., Goldberg, R. A., and Russell III, J. M.: SABER temperature observations in the summer polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere: Importance of accounting for the CO$_2 \nu_2$ quanta V–V exchange, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21809, doi:10.1029/2006GL026591, 2006. Manney, G. L., Daffer, W. H., Strawbridge, K. B., Walker, K. A., Boone, C. D., Bernath, P. F., Kerzenmacher, T., Schwartz, M. J., Strong, K., Sica, R. J., Krüger, K., Pumphrey, H. C., Lambert, A., Santee, M. L., Livesey, N. J., Remsberg, E. E., Mlynczak, M. G., and Russell III, J. R.: The high Arctic in extreme winters: vortex, temperature, and MLS and ACE-FTS trace gas evolution, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 505–522, 2008a. Manney, G. L., Kruger, K., Pawson, S., Schwartz, M. J., Daffer, W. H., Livesey, N. J., Mlynczak, M. G., Remsberg, E. E., Russell III, J. M., and Waters, J. W.: The evolution of the stratopause during the 2006 major warming: Satellite data and assimilated meteorological analyses, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D11115, doi:10.1029/2007JD009097, 2008b. McCormack, J. P., Eckermann, S. D., Coy, L., Allen, D. R., Kim, Y.-J., Hogan, T., Lawrence, B., Stephens, A., Browell, E. V., Burris, J., McGee, T., and Trepte, C. R.: NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 2401–2423, 2004. McCormack, J. P., Eckermann, S. D., Siskind, D. E., and McGee, T. J.: CHEM2D-OPP: A new linearized gas-phase ozone photochemistry parameterization for high-altitude NWP and climate models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4943–4972, 2006. Mertens. C. J., Schmidlin, F. J., Goldberg, R. A., Remsberg, E. E., Pesnell, W. D., Russell III, J. M., Mlynczak, M. G., Lopez-Puertas, M., Wintersteiner, P. P., Picard, R. H., Winick, J. R., and Gordley, L. L.: SABER observations of mesospheric temperatures and comparisons with falling sphere measurements taken during the 2002 summer MaCWAVE campaign, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03105, doi:10.1029/2003GL018605, 2004. Palmer, T. N., Shutts, G. J., and Swinbank, R.: Alleviation of a systematic westerly bias in general circulation and numerical weather predictions models through an orographic gravity wave parameterization, Q. J. Ro Meteor. Soc., 112, 1001–1039, 1986. Peng, M. S., Ridout, J. A., and Hogan, T. F.: Recent modifications of the Emanuel convective scheme in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1254–1268, 2004. Polavarapu, S., Shepherd, T. G., Rochon, Y., and Ren, S.: Some challenges of middle atmosphere data assimilation, Q. J. Roy Meteor. Soc., 131, 3513–3527, 2005. Preusse, P., Ern, M., Eckermann, S. D., Warner, C. D., Picard, R. H., Knieling, P., Krebsbach, M., Russell III, J. M., Mlynczak, M. G., Mertens, C. J., and Riese, M.: Tropopause to mesopause gravity waves in August: Measurement and modeling, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 68, 1730–1751, 2006. Remsberg, E., Lingenfelser, G., Harvey, V. L., Grose, W., Russell III, J., Mlynczak, M., Gordley, L., and Marshall, B. T.: On the verification of the quality of SABER temperature, geopotential height, and wind fields by comparison with Met Office assimilated analyses, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D20), p. 4628, doi:10.1029/2003JD003720, 2003. Remsberg, E. E., Marshall, B. T., Garcia-Comas, M., Krueger, D., Lingenfelser, G. S., Martin-Torres, F. J., Mlynczak, M. G., Russell III, J. M., Smith, A. K., Zhao, Y., Brown, C. W., Gordley, L. L., Lopez-Gonzalez, M., Lopez-Puertas, M., She, C.-Y., Taylor, M. J., and Thompson, R. E.: Assessment of the quality of the Version 1.07 temperature versus pressure profiles of the middle atmosphere from TIMED/SABER, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17101, doi:10.1029/2008JD010013, 2008. Ren, S., Palavarapu, S. M., and Shepherd, T. G.: Vertical propagation of information in a middle atmosphere data assimilation system by gravity-wave drag feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, doi:10.1029/2007GL032699, 2008. Rosmond, T. and Liang, X.: Development of NAVDAS-AR: non-linear formulation and outer loop tests, Tellus, 58A, 45–58, 2006. Russell III, J. M., Mlynczak, M. G., Gordley, L. L., Tansock, J., and Esplin, R.: An overview of the SABER experiment and preliminary calibration results, Proc. SPIE, 3756, doi:10.1117/12.366382, 277–288, 1999. Sankey, D., Ren, S., Polavarapu, S., and Rochon, Y. J.: Impact of data assimilation filtering methods on the mesosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24104, 10.1029/2007JD008885, 2007. Schwartz, M. J., Lambert, A., Manney, G. L., Read, W. G., Livesey, N. J., Froidevaux, L., Ao, C. O., Bernath, P. F., Boone, C. D., Cofield, R. E., Daffer, W. H., Drouin, B. J., Fetzer, E. J., Fuller, R. A., Jarnot, R. F., Jiang, J. H., Jiang, Y. B., Knosp, B. W., Kruger, K., Li, J.-L. T., Mlynczak, M. G., Pawson, S., Russell III, J. M., Santee, M. L., Snyder, W. V., Stek, P. C., Thurstans, R. P., Tompkins, A. M., Wagner, P. A., Walker, K. A., Waters, J. W., and Wu, D. L.: Validation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder temperature and geopotential height measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15S11, doi:10.1029/2007JD008783, 2008. Shepherd, T. G., Koshyk, J. N., and Ngan, K.: On the nature of large-scale mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 105(D10), 12 433–12 446, 10.1029/2000JD900133, 2000. Shepherd, T. G.: Transport in the middle atmosphere, J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn., 85B, 165–191, 2007. Simmons, A. J., Hoskins, B. J., and Burridge, D. M.: Stability of semi-implicit time scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 106, 405–412, 1978. Simmons, A. J. and Burridge, D. M.: An energy and angular momentum conserving vertical finite-difference scheme and hybrid vertical coordinates, Mon. Weather Rev., 109, 758–766, 1981. Simmons, A. J. and Jarraud, M.: The design and performance of the new ECMWF operational model. Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Numerical Methods for Weather Prediction, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, England, UK, 113–164, 1983. Simmons A. J., Burridge, D. M., Jarraud, M., Girard, C., and Wergen, W.: The ECMWF medium-range prediction model: Development of the numerical formulations and the impact of increased resolution, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 40, 28–60, 1989. Siskind, D. E., Eckermann, S. D., Coy, L., McCormack, J. P., and Randall, C. E.: On recent interannual variability of the Arctic winter mesosphere: Implications for tracer descent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2007GL029293, 2007. Slingo, J. M.: The development and verification of a cloud prediction scheme in the ECMWF model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113, 899–927, 1987. Teixeira, J. and Hogan, T.: Boundary layer clouds in a global atmospheric model: Simple cloud cover parameterization, J. Climate, 15, 1261–1276, 2002. Tiedtke, M.: The sensitivity of the time-scale flow to cumulus convection in the ECMWF model, Workshop on Large-Scale Numerical Models, 28 November–1 December 1983, ECMWF, 297–316, 1984. Trenberth, K. E. and Stepaniak, D. P.: A pathological problem with NCEP reanalyses in the stratosphere, J. Climate, 15, 690–695, 2002. Uppala, S., Kallberg, P., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Holm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J. F., Morcrette, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 29613012, 2005. Waters J. W., Froidevaux, L., Harwood, R. S., et al.: The Earth Observing System Microwave Limb Sounder (EOS MLS) on the Aura satellite, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote Sens., 44(5), doi:10.1109/TGRS.2006.873771, 2006. Webster, S., Brown, A. R., Cameron, D. R., and Jones, C. P.: Improvements to the representation of orography in the Met Office Unified Model, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 1989–2010, 2003. Wu, D. L. and Eckermann, S. D.: Global gravity wave variances from Aura MLS: Characteristics and interpretation, J. Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1175/2008JAS2489.1, 2008.