Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 8 9 2008 10.5194/acp-8-2519-2008 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/2519/2008/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/2519/2008/acp-8-2519-2008.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/8/2519/2008/acp-8-2519-2008.pdf 2519 2535 2008-05-09 A model intercomparison analysing the link between column ozone and geopotential height anomalies in January P. Braesicke peter.braesicke@atm.ch.cam.ac.uk C. Brühl M. Dameris R. Deckert V. Eyring M. A. Giorgetta E. Mancini E. Manzini G. Pitari J. A. Pyle B. Steil NCAS-Climate, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Institut f{ü}r Physik der Atmosph{ä}re, Wessling, Germany Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia e Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy A statistical framework to evaluate the performance of chemistry-climate models with respect to the interaction between meteorology and column ozone during northern hemisphere mid-winter, in particularly January, is used. Different statistical diagnostics from four chemistry-climate models (E39C, ME4C, UMUCAM, ULAQ) are compared with the ERA-40 re-analysis. First, we analyse vertical coherence in geopotential height anomalies as described by linear correlations between two different pressure levels (30 and 200 hPa) of the atmosphere. In addition, linear correlations between column ozone and geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa are discussed to motivate a simple picture of the meteorological impacts on column ozone on interannual timescales. Secondly, we discuss characteristic spatial structures in geopotential height and column ozone anomalies as given by their first two empirical orthogonal functions. Finally, we describe the covariance patterns between reconstructed anomalies of geopotential height and column ozone. In general we find good agreement between the models with higher horizontal resolution (E39C, ME4C, UMUCAM) and ERA-40. The Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern emerges as a useful qualitative benchmark for the model performance. Models with higher horizontal resolution and high upper boundary (ME4C and UMUCAM) show good agreement with the PNA tripole derived from ERA-40 data, including the column ozone modulation over the Pacfic sector. The model with lowest horizontal resolution does not show a classic PNA pattern (ULAQ), and the model with the lowest upper boundary (E39C) does not capture the PNA related column ozone variations over the Pacific sector. Those discrepancies have to be taken into account when providing confidence intervals for climate change integrations. Ambaum, M. H. P., Hoskins, B. J., and Stephenson, D. B.: Arctic oscillation or North Atlantic oscillation?, J. Climate, 14(16), 3495–3507, 2001. Baldwin, M. P.: Annular modes in global daily surface pressure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4115–4118, 2001. Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 104(D24), 30 937–30 946, 1999. Braesicke, P., Jrrar, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., and Pyle, J. A.: Variability of total ozone due to the NAO as represented in two different model systems, Met. Z., 12, 203–208, 2003. Braesicke, P. and Pyle, J. A.: Changing ozone and changing circulation in northern mid-latitudes: Possible feedbacks?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1059, doi:10.1029/2002GL015973, 2003. Braesicke, P. and Pyle, J. A.: Sensitivity of dynamics and ozone to different representations of SSTs in the Unified Model, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 2033–2045, 2004. Cariolle, D. and Déqué, M.: Southern hemisphere medium-scale waves and total ozone disturbances in a spectral general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res., 91, 10 825–10 846, 1986. Christiansen, B.: On the physical nature of the Arctic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(16), doi:10.1029/2002GL015208, 2002. Cohen, J. and Saito K.: A test for annular modes, J. Climate, 15(17), 2537–2546, 2002. Dameris, M., Grewe, V., Ponater, M., Deckert, R., Eyring, V., Mager, F., Matthes, S., Schnadt, C., Stenke, A., Steil, B., Brühl, C., and Giorgetta, M. A.: Long-term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry-climate model employing realistic forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2121–2145, 2005. Dameris, M., Matthes, S., Deckert, R., Grewe, V., and Ponater, M.: Solar cycle effect delays onset of ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03806, doi:10.1029/2005GL024741, 2006. Dethof, A. and Holm, E. V.: Ozone assimilation in the ERA-40 reanalysis project, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 2851–2872, 2004. Dobson, G. M. B.: Observations of the amount of ozone in the Earth's atmosphere and its relations to other geophysical conditions, Proc. Soc. London Ser. A, 129, 411–433, 1930. Eyring, V., Harris, N. R. P., Rex, M., et al.: A strategy for process-oriented validation of coupled chemistry-climate models, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86(8), 1117–1133, 2005. Eyring, V., Butchart, N., Waugh, D. W., et al.: Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys. Res., D22308, doi:10.1029/2006JD007327, 2006. Graf, H.F., and K. Walter: Polar vortex controls coupling of North Atlantic Ocean and Atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32(1), L01704, doi:10.1029/2004GL020664, 2005. Honda, M., and Nakamura, H.: Interannual seesaw between the Aleutian and Icelandic lows. Part II: Its significance in the interannual variability over the wintertime Northern Hemisphere, Journal of Climate, 14(24), 4512–4529, 2001. Kodera, K. and Kuroda, Y.: Regional and hemispheric circulation patterns in the northern hemisphere winter, or the NAO and the AO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1934, doi:10.1029/2003GL017290, 2003. Manzini, E., Steil, B., Brühl, C., Giorgetta, M. A., and Krüger, K.: A new interactive chemistry-climate model. 2. Sensitivity of the middle atmosphere to ozone depletion and increase in greenhouse gases: Implications for recent stratospheric cooling, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4429, doi:10.1029/2002JD002977, 2003. Orsolini, Y.J.: Seesaw fluctuations in ozone between the North Pacific and North Atlantic, J. Met. Soc. Japan, 82(3), 941–949, 2004. Orsolini, Y. J., Stephenson, D. B., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: Storm track signature in total ozone during northern hemisphere winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2413–2416, 1998. Orsolini, Y. J. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: Ozone signatures of climate patterns over the Euro-Atlantic sector in the spring, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 3251–3263, 2003. Perlwitz, J. and Graf, H. F.: The statistical connection between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation of the northern-hemisphere in winter, J. Climate, 8(10), 2281–2295, 1995. Perlwitz, J., Graf, H. F., and Voss, R.: The leading variability mode of the coupled troposphere-stratosphere winter circulation in different climate regimes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 105(D5), 6915-6926, 2000. Pitari, G., Mancini, E., Rizi, V., and Shindell, D. T.: Impact of future climate and emission changes on stratospheric aerosols and ozone, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 414–440, 2002. Pyle, J. A., Braesicke, P., and Zeng, G.: Dynamical variability in the modelling of chemistry-climate interactions – Faraday Discuss., 130, 27–39, doi:10.1039/b417947c, 2005. Randel, W., Udelhofen, P., Fleming, E., et al.: The SPARC intercomparison of middle-atmosphere climatologies, J. Climate, 17(5), 986–1003, 2004. \ Rex M., Salawitch R. J., von der Gathen P., Harris N. R. P., Chipperfield M. P., and Naujokat B.: Arctic ozone loss and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L04116, 2004. Schnadt, C. and Dameris, M.: Relationship between NAO changes and stratospheric ozone recovery in the northern hemisphere in a chemistry-climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi:10.1029/2003GL017006, 2003. Simmons, A. J. and Buridge, D.M.: An energy and angular-momentum conserving vertical finite-difference scheme and hybrid vertical-coordinate, Monthly Weather Review, 109(4), 758–766, 1981. Steil, B., Brühl, C., Manzini, E., Crutzen, P. J., Lelieveld, J., Rasch, P. J., Roeckner, E., and Krüger, K.: A new interactive chemistry-climate model. 1. Present day climatology and interannual variability of the middle atmosphere using the model and 9 years of HALOE/UARS data, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4290, doi:10.1029/2002JD002971, 2003. Steinbrecht, W., Claude, H., Kohler, U., et al.: Correlations between tropopause height and total ozone: Implications for long-term changes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 19 183–19 192, 1998. Steinbrecht, W., Haßler, B., Brühl, C., Dameris, M., Giorgetta, M. A., Grewe, V., Manzini, E., Matthes, S., Schnadt, C., Steil, B., and Winkler, P.: Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 349–374, 2006. Stenchikov, G., Hamilton, K., Stouffer, R. J., Robock, A., Ramaswamy, V., Santer, B., and Graf, H.-F.: Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in IPCC AR4 climate models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111(D7), D07107, doi:10.1029/2005JD006286, 2006. Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M.: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields, Geophy Res. Lett., 25, 1297–1300, 1998. Thompson, D. W. J., Baldwin, M. P., and Wallace, J. M.: Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for prediction, J. Climate, 15(12), 1421–1428, 2002. Uppala, S. M., Kallberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., et al.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, 2005. Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter, Monthly Weather Rev., 109(4), 784–812, 1981. Wallace, J. M.: North Atlantic Oscillation/annular mode: Two paradigms – one phenomenon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 791–805, 2000. Wallace, J. M. and Thompson, D. W. J.: The Pacific center of action of the northern hemisphere annular mode: Real or artifact?, J. Climate, 15, 1987–1991, 2002. Walter, K. and Graf, H. F.: The North Atlantic variability structure, storm tracks, and precipitation depending on the polar vortex strength, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 6127–6148, 2005.