Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results A. Riccio1, G. Giunta1, and S. Galmarini2 1Dept. of Applied Science, University of Naples "Parthenope", Napoli, Italy 2European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy
Abstract. In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble
The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also
used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release
of radioactive nuclides.
We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem)
and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1
We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach
called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b).
This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify)
model uncertainties, thus
supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities
in a very effective manner.
Citation: Riccio, A., Giunta, G., and Galmarini, S.: Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 6085-6098, doi:10.5194/acp-7-6085-2007, 2007.