Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 7 19 2007 10.5194/acp-7-5043-2007 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/5043/2007/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/5043/2007/acp-7-5043-2007.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/5043/2007/acp-7-5043-2007.pdf 5043 5059 2007-10-02 Nitrate aerosols today and in 2030: a global simulation including aerosols and tropospheric ozone S. E. Bauer sbauer@giss.nasa.gov D. Koch N. Unger S. M. Metzger D. T. Shindell D. G. Streets The Earth Institute at Columbia University, NY, USA NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NY, USA University of Vermont, Burlington, USA Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA Nitrate aerosols are expected to become more important in the future atmosphere due to the expected increase in nitrate precursor emissions and the decline of ammonium-sulphate aerosols in wide regions of this planet. The GISS climate model is used in this study, including atmospheric gas- and aerosol phase chemistry to investigate current and future (2030, following the SRES A1B emission scenario) atmospheric compositions. A set of sensitivity experiments was carried out to quantify the individual impact of emission- and physical climate change on nitrate aerosol formation. We found that future nitrate aerosol loads depend most strongly on changes that may occur in the ammonia sources. Furthermore, microphysical processes that lead to aerosol mixing play a very important role in sulphate and nitrate aerosol formation. The role of nitrate aerosols as climate change driver is analyzed and set in perspective to other aerosol and ozone forcings under pre-industrial, present day and future conditions. In the near future, year 2030, ammonium nitrate radiative forcing is about −0.14 W/m² and contributes roughly 10% of the net aerosol and ozone forcing. 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