ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-7-2165-2007 A chemistry-transport model simulation of middle atmospheric ozone from 1980 to 2019 using coupled chemistry GCM winds and temperatures Damski J. 1 Thölix L. 1 Backman L. 1 Kaurola J. 1 Taalas P. 1 2 Austin J. 3 4 Butchart N. 4 Kulmala M. 5 Research and Development, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O.Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland Regional and Technical Cooperation for Development Department (RCD), World Meteorological Organization, case Postale 2300, CH-1211 Genève 2, Switzerland Geophysical fluid dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA Climate Research Division, Met Office, Exeter, UK Department of Physical Sciences, University of Helsinki, P.O.Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland 02 05 2007 7 9 2165 2181 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2165/2007/acp-7-2165-2007.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2165/2007/acp-7-2165-2007.pdf

A global 40-year simulation from 1980 to 2019 was performed with the FinROSE chemistry-transport model based on the use of coupled chemistry GCM-data. The main focus of our analysis is on climatological-scale processes in high latitudes. The resulting trend estimates for the past period (1980–1999) agree well with observation-based trend estimates. The results for the future period (2000–2019) suggest that the extent of seasonal ozone depletion over both northern and southern high-latitudes has likely reached its maximum. Furthermore, while climate change is expected to cool the stratosphere, this cooling is unlikely to accelerate significantly high latitude ozone depletion. However, the recovery of seasonal high latitude ozone losses will not take place during the next 15 years.

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