Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 6 12 2006 10.5194/acp-6-4427-2006 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/6/4427/2006/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/6/4427/2006/acp-6-4427-2006.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/6/4427/2006/acp-6-4427-2006.pdf 4427 4459 2006-10-04 Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI D. T. Shindell dshindell@giss.nasa.gov G. Faluvegi N. Unger E. Aguilar G. A. Schmidt D. M. Koch S. E. Bauer R. L. Miller NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, NY, USA Dept. of Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, USA Dept. of Applied Physics and Applied Math, Columbia University, NY, USA A model of atmospheric composition and climate has been developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) that includes composition seamlessly from the surface to the lower mesosphere. The model is able to capture many features of the observed magnitude, distribution, and seasonal cycle of trace species. The simulation is especially realistic in the troposphere. In the stratosphere, high latitude regions show substantial biases during period when transport governs the distribution as meridional mixing is too rapid in this model version. In other regions, including the extrapolar tropopause region that dominates radiative forcing (RF) by ozone, stratospheric gases are generally well-simulated. The model's stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) agrees well with values inferred from observations for both the global mean flux and the ratio of Northern (NH) to Southern Hemisphere (SH) downward fluxes. Simulations of preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) changes show tropospheric ozone burden increases of 11% while the stratospheric burden decreases by 18%. The resulting tropopause RF values are −0.06 W/m2 from stratospheric ozone and 0.40 W/m2 from tropospheric ozone. Global mean mass-weighted OH decreases by 16% from the PI to the PD. STE of ozone also decreased substantially during this time, by 14%. Comparison of the PD with a simulation using 1979 pre-ozone hole conditions for the stratosphere shows a much larger downward flux of ozone into the troposphere in 1979, resulting in a substantially greater tropospheric ozone burden than that seen in the PD run. This implies that reduced STE due to stratospheric ozone depletion may have offset as much as 2/3 of the tropospheric ozone burden increase from PI to PD. However, the model overestimates the downward flux of ozone at high Southern latitudes, so this estimate is likely an upper limit. In the future, the tropospheric ozone burden increases by 101% in 2100 for the A2 scenario including both emissions and climate changes. The primary reason is enhanced STE, which increases by 124% (168% in the SH extratropics, and 114% in the NH extratropics). 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