Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations W. Steinbrecht1, B. Haßler1, C. Brühl2, M. Dameris3, M. A. Giorgetta4, V. Grewe3, E. Manzini5, S. Matthes3, C. Schnadt3,*, B. Steil2, and P. Winkler1 1Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany 2Chemie der Atmosphäre, Max Planck Institut für Chemie, Mainz, Germany 3Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 4Atmosphäre im Erdsystem, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany 5Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy *now at: Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Zürich, Switzerland
Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of
long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature
reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations
(1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient
experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas
concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle,
volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted
for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km).
For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it
includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave
spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa
(≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more
levels in this region. Despite some problems, both models generally reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of
the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability in
total ozone and lower stratospheric
temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C.
MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the long-term decline of total ozone, whereas
underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The
true long-term decline in winter and spring above the Arctic may be underestimated
by a lack of TOMS/SBUV observations in winter, particularly in the cold 1990s.
Main contributions to the observed interannual
variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come
from a linear trend (up to -10 DU/decade at high northern latitudes, up to -40 DU/decade
at high southern latitudes, and around -0.7 K/decade over much of the globe),
from the intensity of the polar vortices (more than 40 DU, or 8 K peak to peak),
the QBO (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up
to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year
solar cycle (generally less than 15 DU, or 1 K), or to ENSO (up to 10 DU, or
1 K). These observed variations are replicated well in the simulations.
Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to -30 DU, or
+3 K). At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric.
At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found
close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features
appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the
observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian
(or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at
high-latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar
cycle and ENSO.
Citation: Steinbrecht, W., Haßler, B., Brühl, C., Dameris, M., Giorgetta, M. A., Grewe, V., Manzini, E., Matthes, S., Schnadt, C., Steil, B., and Winkler, P.: Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 349-374, doi:10.5194/acp-6-349-2006, 2006.