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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACP</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACP</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7324</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acp-5-1655-2005</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Fall vortex ozone as a predictor of springtime total ozone at high northern latitudes</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kawa</surname>
<given-names>S. R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Newman</surname>
<given-names>P. A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stolarski</surname>
<given-names>R. S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bevilacqua</surname>
<given-names>R. M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>04</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2005</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>5</volume>
<issue>6</issue>
<fpage>1655</fpage>
<lpage>1663</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/5/1655/2005/acp-5-1655-2005.html">This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/5/1655/2005/acp-5-1655-2005.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/5/1655/2005/acp-5-1655-2005.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/5/1655/2005/acp-5-1655-2005.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Understanding the impact of atmospheric dynamical variability on observed
changes in stratospheric O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; is a key to understanding how O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; will
change with future climate dynamics and trace gas abundances. In this paper
we examine the linkage between interannual variability in total column
O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; at northern high latitudes in March and lower-to-mid stratospheric
vortex O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; in the prior November. We find that these two quantities are
significantly correlated in the years available from TOMS, SBUV, and POAM
data (1978-2004). Additionally, we find that the increase in
March O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; variability from the 1980s to years post-1990 is also seen in
the November vortex O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;, i.e., interannual variability in both
quantities is much larger in the later years. The cause of this
correlation is not clear, however. Interannual variations in March total
O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; are known to correspond closely with variations in winter
stratospheric wave driving consistent with the effects of varying residual
circulation, temperature, and chemical loss. Variation in November vortex
O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; may also depend on dynamical wave activity, but the dynamics in
fall are less variable than in winter and spring. We do not find significant
correlations of dynamic indicators for November such as temperature, heat
flux, or polar average total O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; with the November vortex O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;, nor
with dynamical indicators later in winter and spring that might lead to a
connection to March. We discuss several potential hypotheses for the
observed correlation but do not find strong evidence for any considered
mechanism. We present the observations as a phenomenon whose understanding
may improve our ability to predict the dependence of O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; on changing
dynamics and chemistry.</p>
</abstract>
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