Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses B. M. Knudsen1, N. R. P. Harris2, S. B. Andersen1, B. Christiansen1, N. Larsen1, M. Rex3, and B. Naujokat4 1Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark 2European Ozone Research Coordinating Unit, Cambridge, UK 3Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany 4Free University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Abstract. Future increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases and water vapour
may cool the stratosphere further and increase the amount of
polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Future Arctic PSC areas have been
extrapolated from the highly significant trends
1958-2001. Using a tight correlation between PSC area and the total
vortex ozone depletion and taking the decreasing amounts of ozone depleting
substances into account we make empirical estimates of future ozone. The
result is that Arctic ozone losses increase until 2010-2015 and decrease only
slightly afterwards. However, for such a long extrapolation into the future
caution is necessary. Tentatively taking the modelled decrease in the ozone trend
in the future into account results in almost constant
ozone depletions until 2020 and slight decreases afterwards. This approach is
a complementary method of prediction to that based on the complex coupled
chemistry-climate models (CCMs).
Citation: Knudsen, B. M., Harris, N. R. P., Andersen, S. B., Christiansen, B., Larsen, N., Rex, M., and Naujokat, B.: Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 1849-1856, doi:10.5194/acp-4-1849-2004, 2004.