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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACP</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACP</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7324</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acp-3-73-2003</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dentener</surname>
<given-names>F.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Weele</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Krol</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Houweling</surname>
<given-names>S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Velthoven</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, I-21020 Ispra (Va), Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>KNMI, de Bilt, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>IMAU, Utrecht University, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>MPI Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>03</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2003</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>3</volume>
<issue>1</issue>
<fpage>73</fpage>
<lpage>88</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
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<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/3/73/2003/acp-3-73-2003.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/3/73/2003/acp-3-73-2003.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from
      multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global
      chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years
      (1979--1993) re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying
      emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;
      concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions
      (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S) we find good agreement in each region between (top-down) calculated
      emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up) estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic
      emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;
      yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the
      difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to
      calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been
      performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either
      varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important
      to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of
      8Tg CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or
      biomass burning.</p>
</abstract>
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