Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations H. J. Eskes, P. F. J. van Velthoven, and H. M. Kelder Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands
Abstract. The availability of near-real time ozone observations from
satellite instruments has recently initiated the development of ozone data assimilation systems. In this paper we present the
results of an ozone assimilation and forecasting system, in use since Autumn 2000. The forecasts are produced by an ozone
transport and chemistry model, driven by the operational medium range forecasts of ECMWF. The forecasts are initialised with
realistic ozone distributions, obtained by the assimilation of near-real time total column observations of the GOME spectrometer
on ERS-2. The forecast error diagnostics demonstrate that the system produces meaningful total ozone forecasts for up to 6 days
in the extratropics. In the tropics meaningful forecasts of the small anomalies are restricted to shorter periods of about two
days with the present model setup. It is demonstrated that important events, such as the breakup of the South Pole ozone hole
and mini-hole events above Europe can be successfully predicted 4--5 days in advance.
Citation: Eskes, H. J., van Velthoven, P. F. J., and Kelder, H. M.: Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2, 271-278, doi:10.5194/acp-2-271-2002, 2002.