1Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
2NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway
3Institute for Meteorology, Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
4Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
5NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA
6Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
7School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
8International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
9Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
10Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USA
11Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
12Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
Received: 07 Jul 2016 – Discussion started: 01 Aug 2016
Abstract. Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. −1 to −3 % yr−1 in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990–2015 period increased by +0.17 ± 0.08 W m−2, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5. The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
Revised: 12 Jan 2017 – Accepted: 07 Feb 2017 – Published: 22 Feb 2017
Myhre, G., Aas, W., Cherian, R., Collins, W., Faluvegi, G., Flanner, M., Forster, P., Hodnebrog, Ø., Klimont, Z., Lund, M. T., Mülmenstädt, J., Lund Myhre, C., Olivié, D., Prather, M., Quaas, J., Samset, B. H., Schnell, J. L., Schulz, M., Shindell, D., Skeie, R. B., Takemura, T., and Tsyro, S.: Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990–2015, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709-2720, doi:10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017.