Journal cover Journal topic
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812, 2016
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/
doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
22 Mar 2016
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous
James Hansen et al.
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Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
SC C5202: 'SC Two papers that conflict with section 2.2. argument for Eemian "superstorm" activity', Andrew Revkin, 26 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5522: 'Is a 10% increase in wind speed enough to increase wave heights enough to move the Bahamian boulders in the Eemian?', Michael Wehner, 31 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C8101: 'Response to SC C5522', James Hansen, 15 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C5615: 'Boulders in the Bahamas: Response to Comment by A. Revkin on paper Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms', James Hansen, 04 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5885: 'Boulders show mega-tsunamis and multi-metre sea level rise could result from rapid Arctic warming; both precautionary and preventative actions are required urgently', John Nissen, 13 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7872: 'Response to SC C5885', James Hansen, 12 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6270: 'Speculations on superstorms', Max Engel, 26 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7633: 'Reply to SC C6270 'Speculations on superstorms', Max Engel, 26 Aug 2015', James Hansen, 06 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C5208: 'Evidence and validation', Erik Stabenau, 26 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6508: 'Antarctic sea ice growth', Steven Marcus, 03 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7963: 'Response to SC C6508', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C7962: 'Response to SC C5208', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
RC C5209: 'Very important but strenuous paper', David Archer, 27 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5270: 'Archer's comment on Hansen's new SLR paper', Rud Istvan, 27 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5316: 'RE: Rud Istvan's reply to 'Archer's comment on Hansen's new SLR paper'.', Tim Palmer, 28 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5336: 'Greenland ice mass loss', Rud Istvan, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7878: 'Response to SC C5336', James Hansen, 12 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7876: 'Response to SC C5316', James Hansen, 12 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7874: 'Response to SC C5270', James Hansen, 12 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5993: 'A layman's note on feedbacks', zachary jacobson, 18 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6361: 'A verifiable prediction would increase impact', Steven Marcus, 30 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7964: 'Response to SC C6361', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C7880: 'Response to SC C5993', James Hansen, 12 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C8226: 'Response to RC C5209 (David Archer, Referee) and RC C6089 (Peter Thorne, Referee)', James Hansen, 19 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C5268: 'SC', Nabil Swedan, 27 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5297: 'Denial of the GHE', Tony Banton, 28 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5303: 'Back-radiation is fiction', Nabil Swedan, 28 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5331: 'Heat transfers', Jack Dale, 28 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5334: 'Back-radiation is fiction-continues', Nabil Swedan, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5343: 'Second Law of Thermodynamics', Charles Holley, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5346: 'Back-radiations does not exist', Nabil Swedan, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5361: 'Continued denial of the GHE', Tony Banton, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5394: 'Back-radiation and greenhouse gas effect do not exist in the real world', Nabil Swedan, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5406: 'Re: No back-radiation exists', Tony Banton, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5408: 'No need for the greenhouse gas effect', Nabil Swedan, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5410: 'Temperature and Latitude', Jack Dale, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5416: 'GHE denial', Jack Dale, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5389: 'Second Law Clarification', Charles Holley, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5991: '2nd Law of Thermodynamics', Ray Siemankowski, 17 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6073: 'Second law of thermodynamics', Nabil Swedan, 20 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6079: 'Radiative heat exchange is taking place everywhere, all the time,', Michel de Rougemont, 20 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6101: 'No backradiation', Nabil Swedan, 20 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6103: 'Back radiation', Charles Holley, 20 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6293: 'Swedan should read the blog of THE denier (dr) Roy Spencer', Harry ten Brink, 27 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6298: 'I paricipated at Dr. Roy Spencer's Discussions', Nabil Swedan, 27 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6330: 'Swedan nonsense', Charles Holley, 28 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6346: 'Correction and reply-Backradiation is a radiation of the cold', Nabil Swedan, 28 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6350: 'Stop the nonsense', Charles Holley, 29 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
EC C6375: 'This thread is closed for further discussion', Frank Dentener, 31 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7828: 'Response to the thread SC C5268 through SC C6350 and two others that belong in that thread (C5377, C6662)', James Hansen, 09 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C5284: 'Objection to eemian sea level account, section 2.1', Matthew Whipple, 28 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7881: 'Response to SC C5284', James Hansen, 12 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5377: 'Second Law Clarification', Charles Holley, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7829: 'Response to SC C5377', James Hansen, 09 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5401: 'Missing historic sea level data, improbable heat transfer to produce sea level rise', Michel de Rougemont, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7961: 'Response to SC C5401', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C5419: 'Mega-tsunamis from Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration?', John Nissen, 29 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7907: 'Response to SC C5419', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5426: 'Prudency and Precautionary Climate Strategy in the light of the paper by Hansen', Aubrey Meyer, 30 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7909: 'Response to SC C5426', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5469: 'Model errors', Nabil Swedan, 30 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5479: 'Model problems?', Charles Holley, 31 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7911: 'Response to SC C5479', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6662: 'climate model', Harry ten Brink, 08 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7830: 'Response to SC C6662', James Hansen, 09 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
EC C6667: 'This thread is closed for further discussion', Frank Dentener, 08 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7959: 'Response to SC C5469', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5493: 'Cryo-hydrologic warming and rapid ice sheet response to climate change', William Colgan, 31 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C5500: 'Incompleteness of IPCC AR5 scenarios for 'policy guidance'', Aubrey Meyer, 31 Jul 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7914: 'Response to SC C5500', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7912: 'Response to SC C5493', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5538: 'Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise', Mauri Pelto, 03 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7930: 'Response to SC C5538', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C5549: 'Interactive comment on “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ◦C global warming is highly dangerous” by J. Hansen et al.', William Ruddiman, 03 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7931: 'Response to SC C5549', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5878: 'Implications regarding uncertainty in future climate projections', Gregory Flato, 12 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7936: 'Response to SC C5878', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C5966: 'Comments on Hansen et al. 2015', Dale Berner, 17 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7934: 'Response to SC C5966', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C5984: 'Stratospheric ozone', Kenneth Towe, 17 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7937: 'Response to SC C5984', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C6086: 'Haven’t we already approached Eemian temperatures?', Kenneth Towe, 20 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6088: 'HadCRUT and GISS', Jack Dale, 20 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7945: 'Response to SC C6088', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7943: 'Response to SC C6086', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
RC C6089: 'Review of “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2oC global warming is highly dangerous” By J. Hansen and colleagues', Peter Thorne, 20 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6113: 'Response to Peter Thorne's Comments', Dale Berner, 21 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7947: 'Response to SC C6113', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6149: 'Second Reponse to Thorne Comments', Dale Berner, 22 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7949: 'Response to SC C6149', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6300: 'Reducing the risks from devastating sea level rise through an improved understanding of Earth System operation in past and present', John Nissen, 28 Aug 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7951: 'Response to SC C6300', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6658: 'Antarctic sea ice anomalies', Steven Marcus, 08 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6670: 'antarctic ice sheet anomaly increasingly variable?', zachary jacobson, 08 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6737: 'Heading for tipping point?', Steven Marcus, 09 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7971: 'Response to SC C6737', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C7966: 'Response to SC C6670', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C7965: 'Response to SC C6658', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C8227: 'Response to RC C5209 (David Archer, Referee) and RC C6089 (Peter Thorne, Referee)', James Hansen, 19 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C6684: 'The rapid sea level rise and climate change in the late Eemian could happen again as a result of accelerated Arctic warming; but catastrophe can be prevented by international collaboration to cool the Arctic', John Nissen, 08 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6954: '"Highly dangerous"?', Kenneth Towe, 17 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7954: 'Response to SC C6954', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7953: 'Response to SC C6684', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
 
SC C6715: 'questioning Greenland “rapid nonlinear growth of ice melt is not likely.”', Jason Box, 09 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
SC C6881: 'Our awesome responsibility', John Nissen, 15 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7957: 'Response to SC C6881', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C7956: 'Response to SC C6715', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
SC C6867: 'Collaborative Comment on Hansen manuscript : on projections of sea-level rise and changing storm tracks', Jason Williams, 15 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
AC C7958: 'Response to SC C6867', James Hansen, 13 Oct 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
EC C6973: 'Background information regarding the review process of the paper by J. Hansen et al', Frank Dentener, 18 Sep 2015 Printer-friendly Version 
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by James Hansen on behalf of the Authors (10 Nov 2015)  Author's response
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (11 Nov 2015) by Frank Dentener
RR by David Archer (23 Nov 2015)  
RR by Frank Raes (01 Dec 2015)  
RR by Peter Thorne (06 Dec 2015)  
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (09 Dec 2015)  
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (16 Dec 2015) by Frank Dentener  
AR by James Hansen on behalf of the Authors (05 Feb 2016)  Author's response  Manuscript
ED: Reconsider after minor revisions (Editor review) (16 Feb 2016) by Frank Dentener  
AR by James Hansen on behalf of the Authors (17 Feb 2016)  Author's response  Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (18 Feb 2016) by Frank Dentener  
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Short summary
We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel...
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