Journal cover Journal topic
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8115-8130, 2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
23 Jul 2015
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
M. Sofiev1, U. Berger2, M. Prank1, J. Vira1, J. Arteta5, J. Belmonte3, K.-C. Bergmann4, F. Chéroux5, H. Elbern6, E. Friese6, C. Galan7, R. Gehrig8, D. Khvorostyanov9, R. Kranenburg10, U. Kumar11, V. Marécal5, F. Meleux12, L. Menut9, A.-M. Pessi13, L. Robertson14, O. Ritenberga15, V. Rodinkova16, A. Saarto13, A. Segers10, E. Severova17, I. Sauliene18, P. Siljamo1, B. M. Steensen19, E. Teinemaa20, M. Thibaudon21, and V.-H. Peuch22 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin Aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland
2Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
3Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
4Foundation German Pollen Information Service, Berlin, Germany
5Groupe d'Étude de l'Atmosphère Méréorologique/Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRS-Météo-France, Toulouse, France
6Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
7University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
8Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo Swiss, Zurich, Switzerland
9Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, France
10TNO, Utrecht, the Netherlands
11Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
12INERIS, Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil en Halatte, France
13University of Turku, Turku, Finland
14SMHI, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
15University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
16VNMU, Vinnitsa National Medical University, Vinnitsa, Ukraine
17Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
18Siauliai University, Siauliai, Lithuania
19MET Norway, Oslo, Norway
20Estonian Environmental Research Centre, Tallinn, Estonia
21RNSA, Brussieu, France
22European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading, UK
Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

Citation: Sofiev, M., Berger, U., Prank, M., Vira, J., Arteta, J., Belmonte, J., Bergmann, K.-C., Chéroux, F., Elbern, H., Friese, E., Galan, C., Gehrig, R., Khvorostyanov, D., Kranenburg, R., Kumar, U., Marécal, V., Meleux, F., Menut, L., Pessi, A.-M., Robertson, L., Ritenberga, O., Rodinkova, V., Saarto, A., Segers, A., Severova, E., Sauliene, I., Siljamo, P., Steensen, B. M., Teinemaa, E., Thibaudon, M., and Peuch, V.-H.: MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8115-8130, doi:10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015, 2015.
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
The paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment for forecasting the atmospheric dispersion of birch pollen in Europe. The study included 7 models of MACC-ENS tested over the season of 2010 and applied for 2013 in forecasting and reanalysis modes. The results were compared with observations in 11 countries, members of European Aeroallergen Network. The models successfully reproduced the timing of the unusually late season of 2013 but had more difficulties with absolute concentration.
The paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment for forecasting the atmospheric...