<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "http://dtd.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACP</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACP</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7324</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acp-13-565-2013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860&amp;ndash;2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Turner</surname>
<given-names>A. J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fiore</surname>
<given-names>A. M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Horowitz</surname>
<given-names>L. W.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bauer</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>now at: School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>now at: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>16</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<issue>2</issue>
<fpage>565</fpage>
<lpage>578</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/565/2013/acp-13-565-2013.html">This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/565/2013/acp-13-565-2013.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/565/2013/acp-13-565-2013.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/565/2013/acp-13-565-2013.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Prior work indicates that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude
  cyclones tracking across the Great Lakes Storm Track (GLST, bounded
  by: 70&amp;deg; W, 90&amp;deg; W, 40&amp;deg; N, and
  50&amp;deg; N) are strongly anticorrelated with ozone (O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;)
  pollution episodes over the Northeastern United States (US).  We
  apply the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS)
  algorithm to 6-hourly sea level pressure fields from over 2500 yr
  of simulations with the GFDL CM3 global coupled chemistry-climate
  model.  These simulations include (1) 875 yr with constant 1860
  emissions and forcings (Pre-industrial Control), (2) five ensemble
  members for 1860–2005 emissions and forcings (Historical), and (3)
  future (2006–2100) scenarios following the Representative
  Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a sensitivity
  simulation to isolate the role of climate warming from changes in
  O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; precursor emissions (RCP 4.5*).  The GFDL CM3 Historical
  simulations capture the mean and variability of summertime cyclones
  traversing the GLST within the range determined from four reanalysis
  datasets.  Over the 21st century (2006–2100), the frequency of
  summertime mid-latitude cyclones in the GLST decreases under the RCP
  8.5 scenario and in the
  RCP 4.5 ensemble mean.
  These trends are significant when assessed relative to the
  variability in the Pre-industrial Control simulation.  In
  addition, the RCP 4.5* scenario enables us to determine the
  relationship between summertime GLST cyclones and high-O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; events
  (&gt; 95th percentile) in the absence of emission changes.  The
  summertime GLST cyclone frequency explains less than 10% of
  the variability in high-O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; events over the Northeastern US in the
  model, implying that other factors play an equally important role in
  determining high-O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; events.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="14"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
<ref-list>
<title>References</title>
<ref id="ref1">
<label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Austin,~J. and Wilson,~R J.: Ensemble simulations of the decline and recovery of stratospheric ozone, J Geophys Res., 111, D16314, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD00690710.1029/2005JD006907, 2003. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2">
<label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Aw,~J. and Kleeman,~M J.: Evaluating the first-order effect of intra-annual temperature variability on urban air pollution, J Geophys Res., 108, 4365, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002688doi:10.1029/2002JD002688, 2003. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3">
<label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Barnes,~E A. and Fiore,~A M.: Surface ozone variability and its response to climate change: Key role for jet position, available at: http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/eposters/eposter/a53d-0171/, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA,~2012. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4">
<label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Bauer,~M. and Del Genio,~A D.: Composite analysis of winter cyclones in a~GCM: influence on climatological humidity, J Climate, 19, 1652–1672, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5">
<label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Bauer,~M., Tselioudis,~G., and Rossow,~W.: A new climatology for investigating storm influences on the extratropics, J. Appl. Meteorol., in review, 2013. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6">
<label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Bengtsson,~L., Hodges,~K I., and Roeckner,~E.: Storm tracks and climate change, J Climate, 19, 3518–3543, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7">
<label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Bernard,~S M., Samet,~J M., Grambsch,~A., Ebi,~K L., and Romieu,~I.: The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States, Environ Health~Persp., 109, 199–209, 2001. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8">
<label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Clarke,~L., Edmonds,~J., Jacoby,~H., Pitcher,~H., Reilly,~J., and Richels,~R.: Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Tech. rep., Department of Energy, Office of Biological &amp; Environmental Research, Washington, DC, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref9">
<label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Cooper,~O R., Moody,~J L., Parrish,~D D., Trainer,~M., Ryerson,~T B., Holloway,~J S., Hübler,~G., Fehsenfeld,~F C., Oltmans,~S J., and Evans,~M J.: Trace gas signatures of the airstreams within North Atlantic cyclones: case studies from the North Atlantic Regional Experiment (NARE &apos;97) aircraft intensive, J Geophys Res., 106, 5437–5456, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000JD90057410.1029/2000JD900574, 2001. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref10">
<label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Dawson,~J P., Adams,~P J., and Pandis,~S N.: Sensitivity of \chemPM_2.5 to climate in the Eastern ES: a~modeling case study, Atmos Environ., 41, 1494–1511, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref11">
<label>11</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Dee,~D P., Uppala,~S M., Simmons,~A J., Berrisford,~P., Poli,~P., Kobayashi,~S., Andrae,~U., Balmaseda,~M A., Balsamo,~G., Bauer,~P., Bechtold,~P., Beljaars,~A C M., van~de Berg,~L., Bidlot,~J., Bormann,~N., Delsol,~C., Dragani,~R., Fuentes,~M., Geer,~A J., Haimberger,~L., Healy,~S B., Hersbach,~H., Hólm,~E V., Isaksen,~L., Kållberg,~P., Köhler,~M., Matricardi,~M., McNally,~A P., Monge-Sanz,~B M., Morcrette,~J.-J., Park,~B.-K., Peubey,~C., de Rosnay,~P., Tavolato,~C., Thépaut,~J.-N., and Vitart,~F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.82810.1002/qj.828, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref12">
<label>12</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Donner,~L J., Wyman,~B L., Hemler,~R S., Horowitz,~L W., Ming,~Y., Zhao,~M., Golaz,~J.-C., Ginoux,~P., Lin,~S J., Schwarzkopf,~M D., Austin,~J., Alaka,~G., Cooke,~W F., Delworth,~T L., Freidenreich,~S M., Gordon,~C T., Griffies,~S M., Held,~I M., Hurlin,~W J., Klein,~S A., Knutson,~T R., Langenhorst,~A R., Lee,~H.-C., Lin,~Y., Magi,~B I., Malyshev,~S L., Milly,~P C D., Naik,~V., Nath,~M J., Pincus,~R., Ploshay,~J J., Ramaswamy,~V., Seman,~C J., Shevliakova,~E., Sirutis,~J J., Stern,~W F., Stouffer,~R J., Wilson,~R J., Winton,~M., Wittenberg,~A T., and Zeng,~F.: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3, J. Climate, 24, 3484–3519, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3955.110.1175/2011JCLI3955.1, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref13">
<label>13</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> EPA,~US: Air Quality Criteria for Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants, Tech. rep., US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref14">
<label>14</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Fiore,~A M., Naik,~V., Spracklen,~D V., Steiner,~A., Unger,~N., Prather,~M., Bergmann,~D., Cameron-Smith,~P J., Cionni,~I., Collins,~W J., Dals\oren,~S., Eyring,~V., Folberth,~G A., Ginoux,~P., Horowitz,~L W., Josse,~B., Lamarque,~J.-F., MacKenzie,~I A., Nagashim,~T., O`Connor,~F M., Righi,~M., Rumbold,~S., Shindell,~D T., Skeie,~R B., Sudo,~K., Szopa,~S., Takemura,~T., and Zeng,~G.: Global Air Quality and Climate, Chemical Society Reviews, 41, 6663–6683,~2012. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref15">
<label>15</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Fyfe,~J C.: Extratropical Southern Hemisphere cyclones: Harbingers of climate change?, J. Climate, 16, 2802–2805, 2003. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref16">
<label>16</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Golaz,~J.-C., Salzmann,~M., Donner,~L J., Horowitz,~L W., Ming,~Y., and Zhao,~M.: Sensitivity of the aerosol indirect effect to subgrid variability in the cloud parameterization of the GFDL Atmosphere General Circulation Model AM3, J. Climate, 24, 3145–3160, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3945.110.1175/2010JCLI3945.1, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref17">
<label>17</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Griffies,~S M., Winton,~M., Donner,~L J., Horowitz,~L W., Downes,~S M., Farneti,~R., Gnanadesikan,~A., Hurlin,~W J., Lee,~H C., Liang,~Z., Palter,~J B., Samuels,~B L., Wittenberg,~A T., Wyman,~B., Yin,~J., and Zadeh,~N.: The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations, J. Climate, 24, 3520–3544, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3964.110.1175/2011JCLI3964.1, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref18">
<label>18</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> % Guenther,~A., Karl,~T., Harley,~P., Wiedinmyer,~C., Palmer,~P I., and Geron,~C.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEAGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181–3210, 2006. % ### SELF-REFERENCE ### Guenther,~A., Karl,~T., Harley,~P., Wiedinmyer,~C., Palmer,~P I., and Geron,~C.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181–3210, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3181-200610.5194/acp-6-3181-2006, 2006 ~ </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref19">
<label>19</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Hodges,~K I., Lee,~R W., and Bengtsson,~L.: A comparison of extratropical cyclones in recent reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25, J. Climate, 24, 4888–4906, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref20">
<label>20</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Horowitz,~L W., Walters,~S., Mauzerall,~D L., Emmons,~L K., Rasch,~P J., Grainer,~C., Tie,~X., Lamarque,~J F., Schultz,~M G., Tyndall,~G S., Orlando,~J J., and Brasseur,~G P.: A~global simulation of tropospheric ozone and related tracers: Description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4784, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD00285310.1029/2002JD002853, 2003. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref21">
<label>21</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Isaksen,~I., Granier,~C., Myhre,~G., Berntsen,~T., Dals\oren,~S., Gauss,~M., Klimont,~Z., Benestad,~R., Bousquet,~P., Collins,~W., Cox,~T., Eyring,~V., Fowler,~D., Fuzzi,~S., Jöckel,~P., Laj,~P., Lohmann,~U., Maione,~M., Monks,~P., Prevot,~A., Raes,~F., Richter,~A., Rognerud,~B., Schulz,~M., Shindell,~D., Stevenson,~D., Storelvmo,~T., Wang,~W.-C., van Weele,~M., Wild,~M., and Wuebbles,~D.: Atmospheric composition change: climate-chemistry interactions, Atmos. Environ., 43, 5138–5192, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.00310.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.003, 2009. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref22">
<label>22</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Jacob,~D J. and Winner,~D A.: Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmos. Environ., 43, 51–63, 2009. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref23">
<label>23</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Jacob,~D J., Logan,~J A., Gardner,~G M., Yevich,~R M., Spivakovsky,~C M., Wofsy,~S C., Sillman,~S., and Prather,~M J.: Factors regulating ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 14817–14826, 1993. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref24">
<label>24</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> John, J. G., Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., and Dunne, J. P.: Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime from 1860–2100, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 18067–18105, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-18067-2012doi:10.5194/acpd-12-18067-2012, 2012. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref25">
<label>25</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Kalnay,~E., Kanamitsu,~M., Collins,~W., Deaven,~D., Gandin,~L., Iredell,~M., Saha,~S., White,~G., Woollen,~J., Zhu,~Y., Chelliah,~M., Ebisuzaki,~W., Higgins,~W., Janowiak,~J., Mo,~K C., Ropelewski,~C., Wang,~J., Leetmaa,~A., Reynolds,~R., Jenne,~R., and Joseph,~D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project,~B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, 1996. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref26">
<label>26</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Kanamitsu,~M., Ebisuzaki,~W., Woollen,~J., Yang,~S K., Hnilo,~J J., Fiorino,~M., and Potter,~G L.: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2),~B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1631–1643, 2002. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref27">
<label>27</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> % Lamarque,~J.-F., Bond,~T C., Eyring,~V., Granier,~C., Heil,~A., Klimont,~Z., Lee,~D., Liousse,~C., Mieville,~A., Owen,~B., Schultz,~M G., Shindell,~D., Smith,~S J., Stehfest,~E., Van Aardenne,~J., Cooper,~O R., Kainuma,~M., Mahowald,~N., McConnell,~J R., Naik,~V., Riahi,~K., and van Vuuren,~D P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-201010.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010. % ### SELF-REFERENCE ### Lamarque,~J.-F., Bond,~T C., Eyring,~V., Granier,~C., Heil,~A., Klimont,~Z., Lee,~D., Liousse,~C., Mieville,~A., Owen,~B., Schultz,~M G., Shindell,~D., Smith,~S J., Stehfest,~E., Van~Aardenne,~J., Cooper,~O R., Kainuma,~M., Mahowald,~N., McConnell,~J R., Naik,~V., Riahi,~K., and van~Vuuren,~D P.: Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-201010.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010 ~ </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref28">
<label>28</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Lamarque,~J.-F., Kyle,~G P., Meinshausen,~M., Riahi,~K., Smith,~S J., van Vuuren,~D P., Conley,~A J., and Vitt,~F.: Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosools in the Representative Concentration Pathways, Climatic Change, 109, 191–212, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0155-010.1007/s10584-011-0155-0, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref29">
<label>29</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Lambert,~S J. and Fyfe,~J C.: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise, Clim. Dynam., 26, 713–728, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0110-310.1007/s00382-006-0110-3, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref30">
<label>30</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Lambert,~S., Sheng,~J., and Boyle,~J.: Winter cyclone frequencies in thirteen models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP1), Clim. Dynam., 19, 1–16, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-001-0206-810.1007/s00382-001-0206-8, 2002. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref31">
<label>31</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Lang,~C. and Waugh,~D W.: Impact of climate change on the frequency of Northern Hemisphere summer cyclones, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D04103, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD01430010.1029/2010JD014300, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref32">
<label>32</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> % Leibensperger,~E M., Mickley,~L J., and Jacob,~D J.: Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7075–7086, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-7075-200810.5194/acp-8-7075-2008, 2008. % ### SELF-REFERENCE ### Leibensperger,~E M., Mickley,~L J., and Jacob,~D J.: Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7075–7086, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-7075-200810.5194/acp-8-7075-2008, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref33">
<label>33</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Levy,~J I., Carrothers,~T J., Tuomisto,~J T., Hammitt,~J K., and Evans,~J S.: Assessing the public health benefits of reduced ozone concentrations, Environ. Health Persp., 109, 1215–1226, 2001. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref34">
<label>34</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Li,~Q B., Jacob,~D J., Park,~R., Wang,~Y X., Heald,~C L., Hudman,~R., Yantosca,~R M., Martin,~R V., and Evans,~M.: North American pollution outflow and the trapping of convectively lifted pollution by upper-level anticyclone, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D04103, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD00503910.1029/2004JD005039, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref35">
<label>35</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Logan,~J A.: Ozone in rural areas of the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 8511–8532, 1989. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref36">
<label>36</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Löptien,~U., Zolina,~O., Gulev,~S., Latif,~M., and Soloviov,~V.: Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs, Clim. Dynam., 31, 507–532, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref37">
<label>37</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> McCabe,~G J., Clark,~M P., and Serreze,~M.: Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity, J. Climate, 14, 2763–2768, 2001. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref38">
<label>38</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Meehl,~G A., Stocker,~T F., Collins,~W D., Friedlingstein,~P., Gaye,~A T., Gregory,~J M., Kitoh,~A., Knutti,~R., Murphy,~J M., Noda,~A., Raper,~S C B., Watterson,~I G., Weaver,~A J., and Zhao,~Z.-C.: Global Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Tech. rep., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref39">
<label>39</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Meleux,~F., Solomon,~F., and Giorgi,~F.: Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change, Atmos. Environ., 41, 7577–7587, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref40">
<label>40</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Ming,~Y. and Ramaswamy,~V.: Nonlinear climate and hydrological responses to aerosol effects, J. Climate, 22, 1329–1339, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2362.110.1175/2008JCLI2362.1, 2009. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref41">
<label>41</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Naik,~R.J. and Simmonds,~I.: A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data. Part I: Development and operation of the scheme, Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 39, 155–166, 2012. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref42">
<label>42</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Naik,~V., Horowitz,~L W., Fiore,~A M., Ginoux,~P., Mao,~J., Aghedo,~A., and Levy II,~H.: Preindustrial to present day changes in short-lived pollutant emissions on atmospheric composition and climate forcing, J. Geophys. Res., in review,~2013. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref43">
<label>43</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Olszyna,~K J., Luria,~M., and Meagher,~J F.: The correlation of temperature and rural ozone levels in Southeastern USA, Atmos. Environ., 31, 3011–3022, 1997. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref44">
<label>44</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Pinto,~J G., Ulbrich,~U., Leckebusch,~G C., Spangehl,~T., Reyers,~M., and Zacharias,~S.: Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM, Clim. Dynam., 29, 195–210, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0230-410.1007/s00382-007-0230-4, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref45">
<label>45</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Raible,~C C., Della-Marta,~P M., Schwierz,~C., Wernli,~H., and Blender,~R.: Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones: a~comparison of detection and tracking methods and different reanalyses, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 880–897, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2143.110.1175/2007MWR2143.1, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref46">
<label>46</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Rasmussen,~D J., Fiore,~A M., Naik,~V., Horowitz,~L W., McGinnis,~S J., and Schultz,~M G.: Surface ozone-temperature relationships in the Eastern US: a~monthly climatology for evaluating chemistry-climate models, Atmos. Environ., 47, 142–153, 2012. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref47">
<label>47</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Riahi,~K., Gröbler,~A., and Nakicenovic,~N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technol. Forecast. Soc., 74, 887–935, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.02610.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026, 2007. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref48">
<label>48</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Riahi,~K., Rao,~S., Krey,~V., Cho,~C., Chirkov,~V., Fischer,~G., Kindermann,~G., Nakicenovic,~N., and Rafaj,~P.: A~scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 109, 33–57, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref49">
<label>49</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Sanchez-Ccoyollo,~O R., Ynoue,~R Y., Martins,~L D., and Andradede,~M de~F.: Impacts of ozone precursor limitation and meteorological variables on ozone concentrations in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Atmos. Environ., 40, S552–S562, 2006. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref50">
<label>50</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Serreze,~M C., Carse,~F., Barry,~R G., and Rogers,~J C.: Icelandic low cyclone activity: Climatological features, linkages with the NAO, and relationships with recent changes in the northern hemisphere circulation, J. Climate, 10, 453–464, 1997. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref51">
<label>51</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Shevliakova,~E., Pacala,~S W., Hurtt,~S M G C., Milly,~P C D., Caspersen,~J P., Sentman,~L T., Fisk,~J P., Wirth,~C., and Crevoisier,~C.: Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: importance of the secondary vegetation sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2022, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GB00317610.1029/2007GB003176, 2009. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref52">
<label>52</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Sillman,~S. and Samson,~P J.: Impact of temperature on oxidant photochemistry in urban, polluted rural and remote environments, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 11497–11508, 1995. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref53">
<label>53</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Steiner,~A L., Tonse,~S., Cohen,~R C., Goldstein,~A H., and Harley,~R A.: Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D18303, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006935doi:10.1029/2005JD006935, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref54">
<label>54</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> % Tai,~A P K., Mickley,~L J., Jacob,~D J., Leibensperger,~E M., Zhang,~L., Fischer,~J A., and Pye,~H O T.: Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM$_2.5$) air quality in the United States: implications for \chemPM_2.5 sensitivity to climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3131–3145, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3131-201210.5194/acp-12-3131-2012, 2012. % ### SELF-REFERENCE ### Tai,~A P K., Mickley,~L J., Jacob,~D J., Leibensperger,~E M., Zhang,~L., Fisher,~J A., and Pye,~H O T.: Meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (\chemPM_2.5) air quality in the United States: implications for \chemPM_2.5 sensitivity to climate change, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3131–3145, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3131-201210.5194/acp-12-3131-2012, 2012a. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref55">
<label>55</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Tai, A. P. K., Mickley, L. J., and Jacob, D. J.: Impact of 2000–2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM$_2.5$) air quality inferred from a multi-model analysis of meteorological modes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11329–11337, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11329-2012doi:10.5194/acp-12-11329-2012, 2012b. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref56">
<label>56</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Thomson,~A M., Calvin,~K V., Smith,~S J., Kyle,~G P., Volke,~A., Patel,~P., Delgao-Arias,~S., Bond-Lamberty,~B., Wise,~M A., Clarke,~L E., and Edmonds,~J A.: RCP4.5: a~pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Climatic Change, 109, 77–94, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-410.1007/s10584-011-0151-4, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref57">
<label>57</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Ulbrich,~U., Pinto,~J G., Kupfer,~H., Leckebusch,~G C., Spangehl,~T., and Reyers,~M.: Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 117–131, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref58">
<label>58</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Ulbrich,~U., Leckebusch,~G C., and Pinto,~J G.: Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a~review, J. Climate, 21, 1669–1679, 2009. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref59">
<label>59</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Uppala,~S M., Kållberg,~P W., Simmons,~A J., Andrae,~U., Bechtold,~V D C., Fiorino,~M., Gibson,~J K., Haseler,~J., Hernandez,~A., Kelly,~G A., Li,~X., Onogi,~K., Saarinen,~S., Sokka,~N., Allan,~R P., Andersson,~E., Arpe,~K., Balmaseda,~M A., Beljaars,~A C M., Berg,~L V D., Bidlot,~J., Bormann,~N., Caires,~S., Chevallier,~F., Dethof,~A., Dragosavac,~M., Fisher,~M., Fuentes,~M., Hagemann,~S., Hólm,~E., Hoskins,~B J., Isaksen,~L., Janssen,~P A E M., Jenne,~R., Mcnally,~A P., Mahfouf,~J.-F., Morcrette,~J.-J., Rayner,~N A., Saunders,~R W., Simon,~P., Sterl,~A., Trenberth,~K E., Untch,~A., Vasiljevic,~D., Viterbo,~P., and Woollen,~J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.17610.1256/qj.04.176, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref60">
<label>60</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> van Vuuren,~D P., Edmonds,~J A., Kainuma,~M., Riahi,~K., Thomson,~A M., Hibbard,~K., Hurtt,~G C., Kram,~T., Krey,~V., Lamarque,~J.-F., Masui,~T., Nakicenovic,~M M N., Smith,~S J., and Rose,~S.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref61">
<label>61</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Vukovich,~F M.: Regional-scale boundary layer ozone variations in the Eastern United States and their association with meteorological variations, Atmos. Environ., 29, 2259–2273, 1995. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref62">
<label>62</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Weaver,~C., Liang,~X.-Z., Zhu,~J., Adams,~P., Amar,~P., Avise,~J., Caughey,~M., Chen,~J., Cohen,~R., Cooter,~E., Dawson,~J., Gilliam,~R., Gilliland,~A., Goldstein,~A., Grambsch,~A., Grano,~D., Guenther,~A., Gustafson,~W., Harley,~R., He,~S., Hemming,~B., Hogrefe,~C., Huang,~H.-C., Hunt,~S., Jacob,~D., Kinney,~P., Kunkel,~K., Lamarque,~J.-F., Lamb,~B., Larkin,~N., Leung,~L., Liao,~K.-J., Lin,~J.-T., Lynn,~B., Manomaiphiboon,~K., Mass,~C., McKenzie,~D., Mickley,~L., O`Neill,~S., Nolte,~C., Pandis,~S., Racherla,~P., Rosenzweig,~C., Russell,~A., Salathé,~E., Steiner,~A., Tagaris,~E., Tao,~Z., Tonse,~S., Wiedinmyer,~C., Williams,~A., Winner,~D., Woo,~J.-H., Wu,~S., and Wuebbles,~D.: A~preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on~US regional ozone concentrations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1843–1863, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2568.110.1175/2009BAMS2568.1, 2009. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref63">
<label>63</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Whittaker, L M. and Horn, L H.: Geographical and seasonal distribution of North American cyclogenesis, Mon Weather~Rev., 109, 2312–2322, 1981. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref64">
<label>64</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Wu,~S., Mickley,~L J., Leibensperger,~E M., Jacob,~D J., Rind,~D., and Streets,~D G.: Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, L18701, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD00891710.1029/2007JD008917, 2008. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref65">
<label>65</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Yin,~J H.: A~consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 2300–2317, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL02368410.1029/2005GL023684, 2005. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref66">
<label>66</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Zhang,~X. and Walsh,~J E.: Climatology and interannual variability of arctic cyclone activity: 1948–2002, J. Climate, 17, 2300–2317, 2004. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref67">
<label>67</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple"> Zishka,~K M. and Smith,~P J.: The climatology of cyclones and anticyclones over North America and surrounding ocean environs for January and July, 1950–77, Mon. Weather Rev., 108, 387–401, 1980. </mixed-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>