ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-12-7453-2012 Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change Mahmud A. 1 Hixson M. 1 Kleeman M. J. 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California at Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis CA 95616, USA 17 08 2012 12 16 7453 7463 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/7453/2012/acp-12-7453-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/7453/2012/acp-12-7453-2012.pdf

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM<sub>0.1</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub>, and PM<sub>10</sub> total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. <br><br> The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM<sub>2.5</sub> mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3%) and organic carbon (OC; −3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3%) and food cooking (−4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM<sub>2.5</sub> mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH<sub>4</sub>NO<sub>3</sub>). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood combustion particles (+14%) when averaging across the population of the entire state. Enhanced stagnation also isolated populations from distant sources such as shipping (−61%) during extreme events. The combination of these factors altered the statewide population-averaged composition of particles during extreme events, with EC increasing by 23 %, nitrate increasing by 58%, and sulfate decreasing by 46%.

 References Aw, J. and Kleeman, M. J.: Evaluating the first-order effect of intraannual temperature variability on urban air pollution, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4365, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002688doi:10.1029/2002JD002688, 2003. Brabson, B. B. and Palutikof, J. P.: Tests of the Generalized Pareto Distribution for Predicting Extreme Wind Speeds, J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 1627–1640, 2000. Bell, M. L, Goldberg, R., Hogrefe. C., Kinney, P. L., Knowlton, K., Lynn, B., Rosenthal, J., Rosenzweig, C., and Patz, J. A.: Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities, Clim. Change, 82, 61–76, 2007. Brook, R. D., Franklin, B., Cascio, W. E., Hong, Y., Howard, G., Lipsett, M., Luepker, R., Mittleman, M., Samet, J., Smith Jr., S., and Tager, I.: Air pollution and cardiovascular disease: a statement of the health care professionals from the expert panel on population and prevention science of the Am. Heart Assoc., Circ., 109, 2655–2671, 2004. California Air Resources Board: The emissions factor (EMFAC) calculation model, available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/onroad/latest_version.htm, 2007. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.: Modelling extreme multivariate events, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 53, 377–392, 1991. Coles, S.: An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, Springer, London, 210 pp., 2001. Dockery, D. W., Arden Pope, C., Xu, X., Spengler, J. D., Ware, J., H., Fay, M. E., Ferris Jr., B. G., and Speizer, F. E.: An Association between Air-Pollution and Mortality in 6 United-States Cities, New Engl. J. Med., 329, 1753–1759, 1993. Ebelt, S., Petkau, A., Vedal, S., Fisher, T., and Brauer, M.: Exposure of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients to Particulate Matter: Relationships between Personal and Ambient Air Concentrations, J. Air Waste Manage., 50, 1081–1094, 2000. Fountoukis, C. and Nenes, A.: ISORROPIA II: a computationally efficient thermodynamic equilibrium model for K$^+$-Ca$^2+$-Mg$^2+$-NH$_4^+$-Na$^+$-SO$_4^2-$-NO$_3^-$-Cl$^-$-H<sub>2</sub>O aerosols, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4639–4659, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-4639-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-4639-2007, 2007. Held, T., Ying, Q., Kaduwela, A., and Kleeman, M.: Modeling particulate matter in the San Joaquin Valley with a source-oriented externally mixed three-dimensional photochemical grid model, Atmos. Environ., 38, 3689-3711, 2004. Jacobson, M. Z.: A solution to the problem of nonequilibrium acid/base gas-particle transfer at long time step, Aerosol Sci. Technol., 39, 92–103, 2005. Jacobson, M. Z.: On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L03809, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031101doi:10.1029/2007GL031101, 2008. Jagger, T. H. and Elsner, J. B.: Climatology models for extreme hurricane near the United States, J. Climate, 19, 3220–3236, 2006. Kinney, P. L.: Climate Change, Air Quality, and Human Health, Am. J. Prev. Med., 35, 459–467, 2008. Kleeman, M. J.: A preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of air quality in California to global change, Climatic Change, 87, S273–S292, 2008. Kleeman, M. J., Cass, G. R., and Eldering, A.: Modeling the airborne particle complex as a source-oriented external mixture, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 102, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/97JD01261doi:10.1029/97JD01261, 21355–21372, 1997. Kleeman, M. J. and Cass, G. R.: A 3D Eulerian source-oriented model for an externally mixed aerosol, Environ. Sci. Technol., 35, 4834–4848, 2001. Knowlton K., Rosenthal J. E., Hogrefe, C., Lynn, B., Gaffin, S., Goldberg, R., Rosenzweig, C., Civerolo, K., Ku, J., and Kinney, P.: Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate, Environ. Health Perspect., 112, 1557–1563, 2004. Liao, H., Chen, W.-T., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Role of climate change in global predictions of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols, \it J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12304, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006852doi:10.1029/2005JD006852, 2006. Li, Y., Cai, W., and Campbell, E. P.: Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall in southwest Western Australia, J. Climate, 18, 852–863, 2005. Mahmud, A., Hixson, M., Hu, J., Zhao, Z., Chen, S.-H., and Kleeman, M. J.: Climate impact on airborne particulate matter concentrations in California using seven year analysis periods, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11097–11114, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11097-2010doi:10.5194/acp-10-11097-2010, 2010. Mar, T., Larson, T. V., Stier, R. A., Claiborn, C., and Koenig, J.: An Analysis of the Association Between Respiratory Symptoms in Subjects with Asthma and Daily Air Pollution in Spokane, Washington, Inhal. Toxicol., 16, 809–815, 2004. Mokdad, A. H., Marks, J. S., Stroup, D. F., and Gerberding, J. L.: Actual causes of death in the United States, 2000, J. Amer., Med. Assoc., 291, 1238–1245, 2004. Mysliwiec, M. J. and Kleeman, M. J.: Source apportionment of secondary airborne particulate matter in a polluted atmospbere, Environ. Sci. Technol., 36, 5376–5384, 2002. Nenes, A., Pandis, S. N., and Pilinis, C.: ISORROPIA: A new thermodynamic equilibrium model for multiphase multicomponent inorganic aerosols, Aquat. Geochem., 4, 123–152, 1998. Norris, G., Young Pong, S. N., Koenig, J. Q., Larson, T. V., Sheppard, L., and Stout, J. W.: An association between fine particles and asthma emergency department visits for children in Seattle., Environ Health Perspect., 107, 489–493, 1999. Peters, A., Wichmann, H., Tuch, T., Heinrich, J., and Heyder J.: Respiratory effects are associated with the number of ultrafine particles$, $Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med.$,$ 155, 1376-1383, 1997. Peters, A., Dockery, D. W., Muller, J. E., and Mittleman, M. A.: Increased Particulate Air Pollution and the Triggering of Myocardial Infarction, Circulation, 103, 2810–2815, 2001. Pickands, J.: Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics, Ann. Stat., 3, 119–131, 1975. Pisarenko, V. F. and Sornette, D.: Characterization of the frequency of extreme earthquake events, Pure Appl. Geophys., 160, 2343–2364, 2003. Pope III, C. A., Thun, M. J., Namboodiri, M. M., Dockery, D. W., Evans, J. S., Speizer, F. E., and Heath Jr., C. W.: Particulate Air-Pollution as a Predictor of Mortality in a Prospective-Study of Us Adults, Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med., 151, 669–674, 1995. Pope III, C. A., Burnett, R. T., Krewski, D., Jerrett, M., Shi, Y., Calle, E., and Thun, M. J.: Cardiovascular mortality and exposure to airborne fine particulate matter and cigarette smoke: shape of the exposure-response relationship, Circulation, 120, 941–948, 2009. Pye, H. O. T., Liao, H., Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Henze, D. K., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States, J. Geophys. Res. 114, D01205, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010701doi:10.1029/2008JD010701, 2009. Racherla, P. N., and Adams, P. J.: Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D24103, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006939doi:10.1029/2005JD006939, 2006. Samet, J. M., Dominici, F., Curriero, F. C., Coursac, I., and Zeger, S. L.: Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 US Cities, 1987–1994, New Engl. J. Med., 343, 1742–1749, 2000. Schulz, H., Harder, V., Ibald-Mulli, A., Khandoga, A., Koenig, W., Krombach, F., Radykewicz, R., Stampfl, a., Thorand, B., and Peters., A.: Cardiovascular effects of fine and ultrafine particles, J. Aerosol Med., 18, 1–22, 2005. Schwartz, J. and Neas, L. M.: Fine Particles Are More Strongly Associated than Coarse Particles with Acute Respiratory Health Effects in School children, Epidemiology, 11, 6–10, 2000. Scott, K. and Benjamin, M.: Development of a biogenic volatile organic compounds emission inventory for SCOS97-NARSTO domain, Atmos. Environ., 37, 39–49, 2003. Seaton, A., Godden, D., McNee, W., and Donaldson, K.: Particulate air pollution and acute health effects, The Lancet, 345, 176–178, 1995. Sillman, S. and Samson, F. J.: Impact of Temperature on Oxidant Photochemistry in Urban, Polluted Rural and Remote Environments, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 100, 11497–11508, 1995. Skamarock, W. C.: Evaluating mesoscale NWP models using kinetic energy spectra, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 3019–3032, 2004. Tagaris, E., Manomaiphiboon, K., Liao, K. J., Leung, L. R., Woo, J. H., He, S., Amar, P., and Russell, A. G.: Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D14312, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD008262doi:10.1029/2006JD008262, 2007. Tagaris, E., Liao, K. J., Delucia, A. J., Deck, L., Amar, P., and Russell, A. G.: Potential Impact of Climate Change on Air Pollution-Related Human Health Effects, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43, 4979–4988, 2009. Tran, H. T., Alvarado, A., Garcia, C., Motallebi, N., Miyasato, L., and Vance, W.: Methodology for Estimating Premature Deaths Associated with Long-term Exposure to Fine Airborne Particulate Matter in California, California Environmental Protection Agency, Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, USA, 2008. Unger, N., Shindell, D. T., Koch, D. M., Amann, M., Cofala, J., and Streets, D. G.: Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12313, 2006. United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Latest Findings on National Air Quality: Status and Trends through 2007, Office of the Air Quality Planning, 2008. Washington, W. M., Weatherly, J. W., Meehl, G. A., Semtner, A. J., Bettge, T. W., Craig, A. P., Strand, W. G., Arblaster, J., Wayland, V. B., James, R., and Zhang, Y.: Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations, Clim. Dynam., 16, 755–774, 2000. Welty, L. and Zeger, S.: Are the Acute Effects of Particulate Matter on Mortality in the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study the Result of Inadequate Control for Weather and Season? A Sensitivity Analysis using Flexible Distributed Lag Models, Am. J. Epidemiol., 162, 80–88, 2005. West, J. J., Szopa, S, Hauglustaine, D. A.: Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone, CR Geoscience, 339, 775-783, 2007. Wexler, A. S. and Seinfeld, J. H.: Analysis of Aerosol Ammonium-Nitrate – Departures from Equilibrium during Scaqs, Atmos. Environ. A-Gen., 26, 579–591, 1992. Ying, Q., Lu, J., Allen, P., Livingstone, P., Kaduwela, A., and Kleeman, M.: Modeling air quality during the California Regional PM$_10$/PM$_2.5$ Air Quality Study (CRPAQS) using the UCD/CIT source-oriented air quality model – Part I: Base case model results, Atmos. Environ., 42, 8954–8966, 2008. Ying, Q. and Kleeman, M. J.: Effects of aerosol UV extinction on the formation of ozone and secondary particulate matter, Atmos. Environ., 37, 5047–5068, 2003. \hack Ying, Q. and Kleeman, M. J.: Source contributions to the regional distribution of secondary particulate matter in California, Atmos. Environ., 40, 736–752, 2006.