ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-12-2615-2012 Projected change in atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea towards 2020 Geels C. 1 Hansen K. M. 1 Christensen J. H. 1 Ambelas Skjøth C. 1 2 Ellermann T. 1 Hedegaard G. B. 1 3 Hertel O. 1 4 Frohn L. M. 1 Gross A. 1 Brandt J. 1 Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark Faculty of Science, Lund University, Sweden Danish Climate Center, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark Department for Environmental, Social and Spatial Change, Roskilde University, Denmark 08 03 2012 12 5 2615 2629 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/2615/2012/acp-12-2615-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/2615/2012/acp-12-2615-2012.pdf

The ecological status of the Baltic Sea has for many years been affected by the high input of both waterborne and airborne nutrients. The focus here is on the airborne input of nitrogen (N) and the projected changes in this input, assuming the new National Emission Ceilings directive (NEC-II), currently under negotiation in the EU, is fulfilled towards the year 2020. With a set of scenario simulations, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used to estimate the development in nitrogen deposition based on present day meteorology combined with present day (2007) or future (2020) anthropogenic emissions. Applying a so-called tagging method in the DEHM model, the contribution from ship traffic and from each of the nine countries with coastlines to the Baltic Sea has been assessed. The annual deposition to the Baltic Sea is estimated to 203 k tonnes N for the present day scenario (2007) and 165 k tonnes N in the 2020 scenario, giving a projected reduction of 38 k tonnes N in the annual load in 2020. This equals a decline in nitrogen deposition of 19%. The results from 20 model runs using the tagging method show that of the total nitrogen deposition in 2007, 52% came from emissions within the bordering countries. By 2020, this is projected to decrease to 48%. For some countries the projected decrease in nitrogen deposition arising from the implementation of the NEC-II directive will contribute significantly to compliance with the reductions agreed on in the provisional reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This underlines the importance of including projections like the current in future updates of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

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