ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-12-1597-2012 Impacts of changes in land use and land cover on atmospheric chemistry and air quality over the 21st century Wu S. 1 Mickley L. J. 2 Kaplan J. O. 3 Jacob D. J. 2 Atmospheric Sciences Program, Dept. of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA ARVE Group, Environmental Engineering Institute, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Station 2, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland 14 02 2012 12 3 1597 1609 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/1597/2012/acp-12-1597-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/1597/2012/acp-12-1597-2012.pdf

The effects of future land use and land cover change on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and air quality are largely unknown. To investigate the potential effects associated with future changes in vegetation driven by atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, climate, and anthropogenic land use over the 21st century, we performed a series of model experiments combining a general circulation model with a dynamic global vegetation model and an atmospheric chemical-transport model. Our results indicate that climate- and CO<sub>2</sub>-induced changes in vegetation composition and density between 2100 and 2000 could lead to decreases in summer afternoon surface ozone of up to 10 ppb over large areas of the northern mid-latitudes. This is largely driven by the substantial increases in ozone dry deposition associated with increases in vegetation density in a warmer climate with higher atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> abundance. Climate-driven vegetation changes over the period 2000–2100 lead to general increases in isoprene emissions, globally by 15% in 2050 and 36% in 2100. These increases in isoprene emissions result in decreases in surface ozone concentrations where the NO<sub>x</sub> levels are low, such as in remote tropical rainforests. However, over polluted regions, such as the northeastern United States, ozone concentrations are calculated to increase with higher isoprene emissions in the future. Increases in biogenic emissions also lead to higher concentrations of secondary organic aerosols, which increase globally by 10% in 2050 and 20% in 2100. Summertime surface concentrations of secondary organic aerosols are calculated to increase by up to 1 μg m<sup>−3</sup> and double for large areas in Eurasia over the period of 2000–2100. When we use a scenario of future anthropogenic land use change, we find less increase in global isoprene emissions due to replacement of higher-emitting forests by lower-emitting cropland. The global atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosols changes little by 2100 when we account for future land use change, but both secondary organic aerosols and ozone show large regional changes at the surface.

 References Alexander, B., Park, R .J., Jacob D. J., Li, Q. B., Yantosca, R. M., Savarino, J., Lee, C. C. W., and Thiemens, M. H.: Sulfate formation in sea-salt aerosols: Constraints from oxygen isotopes, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D10307, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005659doi:10.1029/2004JD005659, 2005. %Arneth, A., Niinemets, U., Pressley, S., et al.\blackbox\textbfplease name all authors, Process-based estimates of %terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions: incorporating the effects of a %direct CO<sub>2</sub>–isoprene interaction, Atmos. Chem. Phys, 7, 31–53, 2007. Arneth, A., Niinemets, Ãœ., Pressley, S., Bäck, J., Hari, P., Karl, T., Noe, S., Prentice, I. C., Serça, D., Hickler, T., Wolf, A., and Smith, B.: Process-based estimates of terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions: incorporating the effects of a direct CO<sub>2</sub>-isoprene interaction, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 31–53, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-31-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-31-2007, 2007. Bachelet, D., Neilson, R. P., Lenihan, J. M., and Drapek, R. J.: Climate change effects on the vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the United States, Ecosystems, 4, 164–185, 2001. Bachelet, D., R P Neilson, T., Hickler, R J., Drapek, J M., Lenihan, M T., Sykes, B., Smith, S., Sitch, and Thonicke, K.: Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1045, doi:1029/2001GB001508, 2003. Bey, I., Jacob, D. J., Yantosca R. M., Logan, J. A., Field, B. D., Fiore, A. M., Li, Q., Liu, H., Mickley, L. J., and Schultz, M.: Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology: Model description and evaluation, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23073–23096, 2001. Brasseur, G. P., Schultz, M., Granier, C., Saunois, M., Diehl, T., Botzet, M., Roeckner, E., and Walters, S.: Impact of climate change on the future chemical composition of the global troposphere, J. Clim., 19, 3932–3951, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3832.1doi:10.1175/JCLI3832.1, 2006. Centritto, M., Nascetti, P., Petrilli, L., Raschi, A., and Loreto, F.: Profiles of isoprene emission and photosynthetic parameters in hybrid poplars exposed to free-air CO<sub>2</sub> enrichment, Plant Cell Environ, 27, 403–412, 2004. Chung, S. H. and Seinfeld, J. H.: Global distribution and climate forcing of carbonaceous aerosols, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4407, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001397doi:10.1029/2001JD001397, 2002. Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A., and Totterdell, I. J.: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184–187, 2000. Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., and Jones, C. D.: Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 137–156, 2004. Cramer, W., Bondeau, A., Woodward, F. I., Prentice, I. C., Betts, R. A., Brovkin, V., Cox, P. M., Fisher, V., Foley, J. A., Friend, A. D., Kucharik, C., Lomas, M. R., Ramankutty, N., Sitch, S., Smith, B., White, A., and Young-Molling C.: Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO<sub>2</sub> and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models, Glob. Change. Biol., 7, 357–373, 2001. Cramer, W., A. Bondeau, S. Schaphoff, W. Lucht, B. Smith, and S. Sitch, Tropical forests and the global carbon cycle: impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate change, and rate of deforestation, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B, 359, 331–343, 2004. DeLucia, E. H., Moore, D. J., and Norby, R. J.: Contrasting responses of forest ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>: implications for the global C cycle, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB3006, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002346doi:10.1029/2004GB002346, 2005. Fairlie, T. D., Jacob, D. J., and Park, R. J.: The impact of transpacific transport of mineral dust in the United States, Atmos. Environ., 41, 1251–1266, 2007. FAO: Global Forest Resources Assessment, Rome, http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/y1997e/y1997e00.HTM, last access: 13 February 2012, 2000. Felzer, B., Kicklighter, D., Melillo, J., Wang, C., Zhuang, Q., and Prinn, R.: Effects of ozone on net primary production and carbon sequestration in the conterminous United States using a biogeochemistry model, Tellus B, 56, 230–248, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2004.00097.xdoi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2004.00097.x, 2004. Fiore, A. M., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., Streets, D. G., Fernandes, S. D., and Jang, C.: Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1919, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015601doi:10.1029/2002GL015601, 2002a. Fiore, A. M., Jacob, D. J., Bey, I., Yantosca, R. M., Field, B. D., Fusco, A. C., and Wilkinson, J. G.: Background ozone over the United States in summer: Origin, trend, and contribution to pollution episodes, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4275, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000982doi:10.1029/2001JD000982, 2002b. Fiore, A. M., Jacob, D. J., Mathur, R., and Martin, R. V.: Application of empirical orthogonal functions to evaluate ozone simulations with regional and global models, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4431, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003151doi:10.1029/2002JD003151, 2003. Fiore, A. M., Horowitz, L. W., Purves, D. W., Levy II, H., Evans, M. J., Wang, Y., Li, Q., and Yantosca, R. M.: Evaluating the contribution of changes in isoprene emissions to surface ozone trends over the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D12303, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005485doi:10.1029/2004JD005485, 2005. Flannigan, M. D. and Harrington, J. B.: A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953–80), J. Appl. Meteorol., 27, 441–452, 1988. Ganzeveld, L. and Lelieveld, J.: Impact of Amazonian deforestation on atmospheric chemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06105, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019205doi:10.1029/2003GL019205, 2004. Ganzeveld, L., Bouwman, L., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Eickhout, B., and Lelieveld, J.: Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D23301, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014041doi:10.1029/2010JD014041, 2010. Gao, W. and Wesely, M. L.: Modeling gaseous dry deposition over regional scales with satellite observations, 1. Model development, Atmos. Environ, 29, 727–737, 1995. Giacopelli, P., Ford, K., Espada, C., and Shepson, P. B.: Comparison of the measured and simulated isoprene nitrate distributions above a forest canopy, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D01304, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005123doi:10.1029/2004JD005123, 2005. Guenther, A., Hewitt, C. N., Erickson, D., Fall, R., Geron, C., Graedel, T., Harley, P., Klinger, L., Lerdau, M., McKay, W., Pierce, T., Scholes, B., Steinbrecher, R., Tallamraju, R., Taylor, J., and Zimmerman, P.: A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 8873–8892, 1995. Guenther, A., Karl, T., Harley, P., Wiedinmyer, C., Palmer, P. I., and Geron, C.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181–3210, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006doi:10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006, 2006. Hauglustaine, D. A., Lathiére J., Szopa, S., and Folberth, G. A.: Future tropospheric ozone simulated with a climate-chemistry-biosphere model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24807, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024031doi:10.1029/2005GL024031, 2005. Heald, C. L., Henze, D. K., Horowitz, L. W., Feddema, J., Lamarque, J. F., Guenther, A., Hess, P. G., Vitt, F., Seinfeld, J. H., Goldstein, A. H., and Fung, I.: Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D05211, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009092doi:10.1029/2007JD009092, 2008. Heald, C. L., Wilkinson, M. J., Monson, R. K., Alo, C. A., Wang, G., and Guenther, A.: Response of isoprene emission to ambient CO<sub>2</sub> changes and implications for global budgets, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 4, 1127–1140, 2009. Henze, D. K. and Seinfield, J. H.: Global secondary organic aerosol from isoprene oxidation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L09812, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025976doi:10.1029/2006GL025976, 2006. Henze, D. K., Seinfeld, J. H., Ng, N. L., Kroll, J. H., Fu, T.-M., Jacob, D. J., and Heald, C. L.: Global modeling of secondary organic aerosol formation from aromatic hydrocarbons: high- vs. low-yield pathways, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 2405–2420, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-2405-2008doi:10.5194/acp-8-2405-2008, 2008. Hogrefe, C., Lynn, B., Civerolo, K., Ku, J.-Y., Rosenthal, J., Rosenzweig, C., Goldberg, R., Gaffin, S., Knowlton, K., and Kinney, P. L.: Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D22301, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004690doi:10.1029/2004JD004690, 2004. Houghton, R. A., Skole, D. L., Nobre, C. A., Hackler, J. L., Lawrence, K. T., and Chomentowski, W. H.: Annual fluxes of carbon from deforestation and regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon, Nature, 403, 301–304, 2000. Houweling, S., Dentener, F., and Lelieveld, J.: The impact of nonmethane hydrocarbon compounds on tropospheric photochemistry, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 10673–10696, 1998. Hudman, R. C., Jacob, D. J., Turquety, S., Leibensperger, E. M., Murray, L. T., Wu, S., Gilliland, A. B., Avery, M., Bertram, T. H., Brune, W., Cohen, R. C., Dibb, J. E., Flocke, F. M., Fried, A., Holloway, J. S., Neuman, J. A., Orville, R., Perring, A., Ren, X., Sachse, G. W., Singh, H. B., Swanson, A., and Wooldridge, P. J.: Surface and lightning sources of nitrogen oxides over the United States: magnitudes, chemical evolution, and outflow, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12S05, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007912doi:10.1029/2006JD007912, 2007. IMAGE-Team: The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios: A comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century, RIVM CD-ROM publication 481508018, Natl. Inst. for Public Health & the Environment, Bilthoven, 2001. IPCC: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der, P. J. Linden, Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881~pp., 2001. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Solomon, S. S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996~pp., 2007. Jacob, D. J. and Winner, D. A.: Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmos. Environ., 43, 51–63, 2009. Jiang, X., Wiedinmyer, C., Chen, F., Yang, Z.-L., and Lo, J. C.-F.: Predicted impacts of climate and land use change on surface ozone in the Houston, Texas, area, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20312, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009820doi:10.1029/2008JD009820, 2008. Johnson, C. E., Collins, W. J., Stevenson, D. S., and Derwent, R. G.: The relative roles of climate and emissions changes on future oxidant concentrations, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 18631–18645, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999JD900204doi:10.1029/1999JD900204, 1999. Kaplan, J. O., Prentice, I. C., Knorr, W., and Valdes, P. J.: Modeling the dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage since the Last Glacial Maximum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2074, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015230doi:10.1029/2002GL015230, 2002. Kaplan, J. O., Bigelow, N. H., Prentice, I. Colin, Harrison, Sandy P., Bartlein, Patrick J., Christensen, T. R., Cramer, W., Matveyeva, N. V., McGuire, A. D., Murray, D. F., Razzhivin, V. Y., Smith, B., Walker, Donald A., Anderson, P. M., Andreev, A. A., Brubaker, L. B., Edwards, M. E., and Lozhkin, A. V. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparsons, and future projections, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8171, doi:1029/2002/JD002559, 2003. Kleidon, A. and Heimann, M.: Assessing the role of deep rooted vegetation in the climate system with model simulations: Mechanism, comparison to observations and implications for Amazonian deforestation, Climate Dyn., 16, 183–199, 1999. Kroll, J. H., Ng, N. L., Murphy, S. M., Flagan, R. C., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene photooxidation, Environ. Sci. Technol., 40, 1869–1877, http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es0524301doi:10.1021/es0524301, 2006. Lathi$\grave\rm e$re, J., Hauglustaine, D. A., Friend, A. D., De Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Viovy, N., and Folberth, G. A.: Impact of climate variability and land use changes on global biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 2129–2146, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-2129-2006doi:10.5194/acp-6-2129-2006, 2006. Lelieveld, J., Butler, T. M., Crowley, J. N., Dillon, T. J., Fischer, H., Ganzeveld, L., Harder, H., Lawrence, M. G., Martinez, M., Taraborrelli, D., and Williams, J.: Atmospheric oxidation capacity sustained by a tropical forest, Nature, 452, 737–740, 2008. Levy, P. E., Cannell, M. G. R., and Friend, A. D.: Modelling the impact of future changes in climate, CO<sub>2</sub> concentration and land use on natural ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon sink, Global Environ. Chang., 14, 21–30, 2004. Liao, H., Seinfeld, J. H., Adams, P. J., an Mickleyd, L. J.: Global radiative forcing of coupled tropospheric ozone and aerosols in a unified general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D16207, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004456doi:10.1029/2003JD004456, 2004. Liao, H., Henze, D. K., Seinfeld, J. H., Wu, S., and Mickley, L. J.: Biogenic secondary organic aerosol over the United States: Comparison of climatological simulations with observations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D06201, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007813doi:10.1029/2006JD007813, 2007. Logan, J. A.: An analysis of ozonesonde data for the troposphere: Recommendations for testing 3-D models and development of a gridded climatology for tropospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 16115–16149, 1999. McKenzie, D., Gedalof, Z., Peterson, D., and Mote, P.: Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation, Conserv. Biol., 18, 890– 902, 2004. McLinden, C. A., Olsen, S. C., Hannegan, B., Wild, O., Prather, M. J., and Sundet, J.: Stratospheric ozone in 3-D models: A simple chemistry and the cross-tropopause flux, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 14653–14665, 2000. Meszaros, R., Szinyei, D., Vincze, C., Lagzi, I., Turanyi, T., Haszpra, L., and Tomlin, A. S.: Effects of the soil wetness state on the stomatal ozone fluxes over Hungary, Int. J. Environ Pollut., 36, 180–194, http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJEP.2009.021825doi:10.1504/IJEP.2009.021825, 2009. MNP: Integrated modelling of global environmental change, an overview of IMAGE 2.4., edited by: Bouwman, A. F., Kram, T., and Klein Goldewijk, K., Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 2006. Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R (Eds.): Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 570~pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, USA, 2000. Nowak, R. S., Ellsworth, D. S., and Smith, S. D.: Functional responses of plants to elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> – do photosynthetic and productivity data from FACE experiments support early predictions?, New Phytol., 162, 253–280, 2004. Olson, J. S.: World Ecosystems (WE1.4). Digital Raster Data on a 10-minute Cartesian Orthonormal Geodetic 1080 × 2160 grid, in: Global Ecosystems Database, Version 2.0. Boulder, CO: National Geophysical Data Center, 1992. Park, R. J., Jacob, D. J., Field, B. D., Yantosca, R. M., and Chin, M.: Natural and transboundary pollution influences on sulfate-nitrateammonium aerosols in the United States: Implications for policy, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D15204, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004473doi:10.1029/2003JD004473, 2004. Park, R. J., Jacob, D. J., Kumar, N., and Yantosca, R. M.: Regional visibility statistics in the United States: Natural and transboundary pollution influences, and implications for the Regional Haze Rule, Atmos. Environ., 40, 5405–5423, 2006. Paulot, F., Crounse, J. D., Kjaergaard, H. G., Kroll, J. H., Seinfeld, J. H., and Wennberg, P. O.: Isoprene photooxidation: new insights into the production of acids and organic nitrates, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1479–1501, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1479-2009doi:10.5194/acp-9-1479-2009, 2009. Pickering, K. E., Wang, Y., Tao, W., Price, C., and Müller, J.: Vertical distributions of lightning NO<sub>x</sub> for use in regional and global chemical transport models, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 31203–31216, 1998. Possell, M., Hewitt, C. N., and Beerling, D. J.: The effects of glacial atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and climate on isoprene emissions by vascular plants, Global Change Biol., 11, 60–69, 2005. Price, C. and Rind, D.: A simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 9919–9933, 1992. Purves, D. W., Caspersen, J. P., Moorcorft, P. R., Hurtt, G. C., and Pacala, S. W.: Human-induced changes in U.S. biogenic volatile organic compound emissions: evidence from long-term forest inventory data, Glob. Change. Biol., 10, 1737–1755, 2004. Pye, H. O. T., Liao, H., Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Henze, D. K., and Seinfeld, J. H.: Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D01205, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010701doi:10.1029/2008JD010701, 2009. Racherla, P. N. and Adams, P. J.: Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D24103, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006939doi:10.1029/2005JD006939, 2006. Rind, D., Lerner, J., Jonas, J., and McLinden, C.: Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09315, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007476doi:10.1029/2006JD007476, 2007. Sanderson, M. G., Jones, C. D., Collins, W. J., Johnson, C. E., and Derwent, R. G.: Effect of Climate Change on Isoprene Emissions and Surface Ozone Levels, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1936, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017642doi:10.1029/2003GL017642, 2003. Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 161–185, 2003. Sitch, S., Cox, P. M., Collins, W. J., and Huntingford, C.: Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink, Nature, 448, 791–794, 2007. %Stavrakou, T., Peeters, J., and Müller, J.-F., Improved global modelling of %HOx recycling in isoprene oxidation, evaluation against the GABRIEL and %INTEX-A aircraft campaign measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9863–9878, %http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9863-2010doi:10.5194/acp-10-9863-2010, 2010. Stavrakou, T., Peeters, J., and Müller, J.-F.: Improved global modelling of HO$_\rm x$ recycling in isoprene oxidation: evaluation against the GABRIEL and INTEX-A aircraft campaign measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9863–9878, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9863-2010doi:10.5194/acp-10-9863-2010, 2010. Stevenson, D. S., Johnson, C. E., Collins, W. J., Derwent, R. G., and Edwards, J. M.: Future tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and methane turnover: The impact of climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2073–2076, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010887doi:10.1029/1999GL010887, 2000. Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Ellingsen, K., van Noije, T. P. C., Wild, O., Zeng, G., Amann, M., Atherton, C. S., Bell, N., Bergmann, D. J., Bey, I., Butler, T., Cofala, J., Collins, W.J., Derwent, R.G., Doherty R.M., Drevet, J., Eskes, H. J., Fiore, A. M., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D. A., Horowitz, L. W., Isaksen, I. S. A., Krol, M. C., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, M. G., Montanaro, V., Müller, J.-F., Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J. M., Sanderson, M. G., Savage, N. H., Shindell, D. T., Strahan, S. E., Sudo, K., and Szopa, S.: Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D08301, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006338doi:10.1029/2005JD006338, 2006. Stocks, B., Fosberg, M. A., Lynham, T. J., Mearns, L., Wotton, B. M., Yang, Q., Jin, J. Z., Lawrence, K., Hartley, G. R., Mason, J. A., and McKenney, D. W.: Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests, Clim. Change, 38, 1–13, 1998. Swetnam, T. W.: Fire history and climate change in giant sequoia groves, Science, 262, 885–889, 1993. Tsigaridisa, K. and Kanakidou, M.: Secondary organic aerosol importance in the future atmosphere, Atmos. Environ., 41, 4682–4692, 2007. Turner II., B. L., Meyer, W. B., and Skole, D. L.: Global land use/land cover change: towards an integrated study, Ambio, 23, 91–95, 1994. Turner II, B. L., Skole, D., Sanderson, S., Fischer, G., Fresco, L., and Leemans, R.: Land-use and land-cover change science/research plan, no 7, in: IHDP Report, 1995. Wang, Y., Jacob, D. J., and Logan, J. A.: Global simulation of tropospheric O<sub>3</sub>-NO<sub>x</sub>-hydrocarbon chemistry: 1 Model formulation, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 10713–10725, 1998. Wang, Y., Jacob, D. J., and Logan, J. A.: Global simulation of tropospheric O<sub>3</sub>-NO<sub>x</sub>-hydrocarbon chemistry: 1. Model formulation, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 10713–10725, 1998. Wesely, M. L. and Hicks, B. B.: Some factors that affect the deposition rates of sulfur dioxide and similar gases on vegetation, J. Air. Pollut. Control Assoc., 27, 1110–1116, 1977. Wesely, M. L.: Parameterization of surface resistance to gaseous dry deposition in regional-scale numerical models, Atmos. Environ., 23, 1293–1304, 1989. Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Logan, J. A., Yantosca, R. M., and Rind, D.: Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone?, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D05302, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007801doi:10.1029/2006JD007801, 2007. Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Leibensperger, E. M., Jacob, D. J., Rind, D., and Streets, D. G.: Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06302, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008917doi:10.1029/2007JD008917, 2008a. Wu, S., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Rind, D., and Streets, D. G.: Effects of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on global tropospheric ozone and the policy-relevant background surface ozone in the United States, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D18312, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009639doi:10.1029/2007JD009639, 2008b. Yienger, J. J. and Levy, H.: Empirical model of global soil-biogenic NO$_\rm x$ emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 11447–11464, 1995.