Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
04 Dec 2012
Received: 21 Jul 2012 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 16 Aug 2012Abstract. Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosols
were simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 to
the present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventories
used by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were
applied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in the
atmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and North
America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol
loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century.
Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained
high loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs.
Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects over
time generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable future
pathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect for
different RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustrial
level by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuous
increases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated with
reduced aerosol negative forcing.
Revised: 21 Nov 2012 – Accepted: 30 Nov 2012 – Published: 04 Dec 2012
Citation: Takemura, T.: Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11555-11572, doi:10.5194/acp-12-11555-2012, 2012.