ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-12-10613-2012 Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone Colette A. 1 Granier C. 2 3 4 5 Hodnebrog Ø. 6 15 Jakobs H. 7 Maurizi A. 8 Nyiri A. 9 Rao S. 10 Amann M. 10 Bessagnet B. 1 D'Angiola A. 2 Gauss M. 9 Heyes C. 10 Klimont Z. 10 Meleux F. 1 Memmesheimer M. 7 Mieville A. 12 Rouïl L. 1 Russo F. 8 Schucht S. 1 Simpson D. 9 13 Stordal F. 6 Tampieri F. 11 Vrac M. 14 Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Verneuil-en-Halatte, France Université Paris 6 Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS-INSU, LATMOS-IPSL, Paris, France NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Universitetet i Oslo (UiO), Oslo, Norway FRIUUK, Köln, Germany Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche, Bologna, Italy Meteorologisk institutt (met.no), Oslo, Norway International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria ENEA, Bologna, Italy Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA, CNRS-INSU, UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France now at: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway 13 11 2012 12 21 10613 10630 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/10613/2012/acp-12-10613-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/10613/2012/acp-12-10613-2012.pdf

In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models. <br><br> A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the modelled projection. Last, the modelling experiment is related to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented. <br><br> The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NO<sub>x</sub> will drop down to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O<sub>3</sub> will slightly increase in NO<sub>x</sub> saturated areas but the overall O<sub>3</sub> burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O<sub>3</sub> levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximum O<sub>3</sub> is higher than 120 μg m<sup>−3</sup> more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8%. <br><br> We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by the climate policy.

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