ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-12-10097-2012 European summer surface ozone 1990–2100 Langner J. 1 Engardt M. 1 Andersson C. 1 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76, Norrköping, Sweden 05 11 2012 12 21 10097 10105 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/10097/2012/acp-12-10097-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/10097/2012/acp-12-10097-2012.pdf

The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emission on summer surface ozone in Europe was studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April–September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O<sub>3</sub> and reduced European emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations. The European O<sub>3</sub> precursor emission reductions in RCP4.5 are substantial and it remains to be seen if these reductions can be achieved. There is substantial decadal variability in the simulations forced by climate variability which is important to consider when looking at changes in surface O<sub>3</sub> concentrations, especially until the first half of the 21st century. In order to account for changes in background O<sub>3</sub> future regional model studies should couple global (hemispheric) and regional CTMs forced by a consistent set of meteorological and precursor emission data.

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