ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-11-599-2011 Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature Gillett N. P. 1 Akiyoshi H. 2 Bekki S. 3 Braesicke P. 4 Eyring V. 5 Garcia R. 6 Karpechko A. Yu. 7 McLinden C. A. 8 Morgenstern O. 4 9 Plummer D. A. 1 Pyle J. A. 4 Rozanov E. 10 11 Scinocca J. 1 Shibata K. 12 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Service d'Aéronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge/National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan 20 01 2011 11 2 599 609 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/599/2011/acp-11-599-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/599/2011/acp-11-599-2011.pdf

Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

 References Akiyoshi, H., Zhou, L B., Yamashita, Y., Sakamoto, K., Yoshiki, M., Nagashima, T., Takahashi, M., Kurokawa, J., Takigawa, M., and Imamura, T.: A CCM simulation of the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex in the years 1980–2004 under the CCMVal scenarios, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D03103, \doi10.1029/2007JD009261, 2009. Allen, M R. and Stott, P A.: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, Part I: Theory, Clim. Dynam., 21, 477–491, 2003. Allen, M R. and Tett, S. F B.: Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting, Clim. Dynam., 15, 419–434, 1999. Allen, D R., Bevilacqua, R M., Nedoluha, G E., Randall, C E., and Manney, G L.: Unusual stratospheric transport and mixing during the 2002 Antarctic winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1599, \doi10.1029/2003GL017117, 2003. Cordero, E. C. and Forster, P. M. de F.: Stratospheric variability and trends in models used for the IPCC AR4, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 5369–5380, doi:10.5194/acp-6-5369-2006, 2006. Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Kinnison, D. E., Scinocca, J. F., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Kubin, A., Langematz, U., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Nakamura, T., Oman, L. D., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Tian, W., Braesicke, P., Hardiman, S. C., Lamarque, J. F., Morgenstern, O., Pyle, J. A., Smale, D., and Yamashita, Y.: Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9451–9472, doi:10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010, 2010. Fomichev, V I., Jonsson, A I., de Grandpré, J., Beagley, S. R., McLandress, C., Semeniuk, K., and Shepherd, T G.: Response of the middle atmosphere to CO<sub>2</sub> doubling: Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 20, 1121–1144, 2007. Forster, P. M. de F. and Joshi, M.: The role of halocarbons in the climate change of the troposphere and stratosphere, Clim. Change, 71, 249–266, 2005. Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Bernsten, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D W., Haywood, J., Lean, J., Lowe, D C., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga, G., Schulz, M., and Van Dorland, R.: Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing, in: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., chap 2, Cambridge Univ. Press, 129–234, 2007. Garcia, R R., Marsh, D R., Kinnison, D E., Boville, B A., and Sassi, F.: Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09301, \doi10.1029/2006JD007485, 2007. Haigh, J D. and Pyle, J A.: Ozone perturbation experiments in a two-dimensional circulation model, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 108, 551–574, 1982. Hegerl, G C., Zwiers, F. W., Braconnot, P., Gillett, N. P., Luo, Y., Marengo Orsini, J. A., Nicholls, N., Penner, J. E., and Stott, P. A.: Understanding and attributing climate change, in: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., chap 9, Cambridge Univ. Press, 663–745, 2007. Jonsson, A I., de~Grandpré, J., Fomichev, V I., McConnell, J C., and Beagley, S R.: Doubled CO<sub>2</sub>-induced cooling in the middle atmosphere: Photochemical analysis of the ozone radiative feedback, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24103, \doi10.1029/2004JD005093, 2004. Jonsson, A. I., Fomichev, V. I., and Shepherd, T. G.: The effect of nonlinearity in CO<sub>2</sub> heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 8447–8452, doi:10.5194/acp-9-8447-2009, 2009. Jourdain, L., Bekki, S., Lott, F., and Lefèvre, F.: The coupled chemistry-climate model LMDz-REPROBUS: description and evaluation of a transient simulation of the period 1980–1999, Ann. Geophys., 26, 1391–1413, doi:10.5194/angeo-26-1391-2008, 2008. Karpechko, A. Yu., Gillett, N. P., Hassler, B., Rosenlof, K. H., and Rozanov, E.: Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1385–1400, doi:10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010, 2010. Lin, P., Fu, Q., Solomon, S., and Wallace, J M.: Temperature Trend Patterns in Southern Hemisphere High Latitudes: Novel Indicators of Stratospheric Change, J. Climate, 22, 6325–6341, 2009. McLandress, C., Jonsson, A I., Plummer, D A., Reader, M C., Scinocca, J F., and Shepherd, T G.: Separating the effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part 1: Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, J. Climate, 23, 5002–5020, 2010. McLinden, C. A., Tegtmeier, S., and Fioletov, V.: Technical Note: A SAGE-corrected SBUV zonal-mean ozone data set, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 7963–7972, doi:10.5194/acp-9-7963-2009, 2009. Mears, C A. and Wentz, F J.: Construction of the Remote Sensing Systems V3.2 Atmospheric Temperature Records from the MSU and AMSU Microwave Sounders, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 26, 1040–1056, 2009. Mitchell, J. F. B., Karoly, D. J., Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Allen, M. R., and Marengo, J.: Detection of climate change and attribution of causes, in: Climate change 2001, The scientific basis, edited by Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge Univ. Press, chap 12, 695–738, 2001. Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., O'Connor, F. M., Bushell, A. C., Johnson, C. E., Osprey, S. M., and Pyle, J. A.: Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 1: The stratosphere, Geosci. Model Dev., 2, 43–57, doi:10.5194/gmd-2-43-2009, 2009. Morgenstern, O., Giorgetta, M. A., Shibata, K., Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W., Shepherd, T. G., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C, Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Hegglin, M. I., Jöckel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E., Olivié, D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Smale, D., Teyssèdre, H., Toohey, M., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.: Review of the formulation of present generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M02, \doi10.1029/2009JD013728, 2010. Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J. F., Shepherd, T. G., Reader, M. C., and Jonsson, A. I.: Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 8803–8820, doi:10.5194/acp-10-8803-2010, 2010. Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf, M D., Randel, W J., Santer, B D., Soden, B J., and Stenchikov, G L.: Anthropogenic and natural infleunces in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling, Science, 311, 1138–1141, 2006. Randel, W J., Shine, K P., Austin, J., Barnett, J., Claud, C., Gillett, N P., Keckhut, P., Langematz, U., Lin, R., Long, C., Mears, C., Miller, A., Nash, J., Seidel, D J., Thompson, D. W J., Wu, F., and Yoden, S.: An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02107, \doi10.1029/2008JD010421, 2009. Santer, B D., Sausen, R., Wigley, T. M L., Boyle, J S., AchutaRao, K., Doutriaux, C., Hansen, J E., Meehl, G A., Roeckner, E., Ruedy, R., Schmidt, G., and Taylor, K E.: Behaviour of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses and observations: Decadal changes, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4002, \doi10.1029/2002JD002258, 2003. Schraner, M., Rozanov, E., Schnadt Poberaj, C., Kenzelmann, P., Fischer, A. M., Zubov, V., Luo, B. P., Hoyle, C. R., Egorova, T., Fueglistaler, S., Brönnimann, S., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Technical Note: Chemistry-climate model SOCOL: version 2.0 with improved transport and chemistry/microphysics schemes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5957–5974, doi:10.5194/acp-8-5957-2008, 2008. Scinocca, J. F., McFarlane, N. A., Lazare, M., Li, J., and Plummer, D.: Technical Note: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7055–7074, doi:10.5194/acp-8-7055-2008, 2008. Shepherd, T G. and Jonsson, A I.: On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1435–1444, doi:10.5194/acp-8-1435-2008, 2008. Shibata, K. and Deushi, M.: Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute, Ann. Geophys., 26, 1299–1326, doi:10.5194/angeo-26-1299-2008, 2008. Shine, K P., Bourqui, M S., Forster, P. M. de F., Hare, S. H E., Langematz, U., Braesicke, P., Grewe, V., Ponater, M., Schnadt, C., Smith, C A., Haigh, J D., Austin, J., Butchart, N., Shindell, D T., Randel, W J., Nagashima, T., Portmann, R W., Solomon, S., Seidel, D J., Lanzante, J., Klein, S., Ramaswamy, V., and Schwarzkopf, M D.: A comparison of model-simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 1565–1588, 2003. SPARC CCMVal: SPARC CCMVal report on the evaluation of chemistry-climate models, edited by: Eyring, V., Shepherd, T. G., and Waugh, D. W., WCRP-132, WMO/TD No. 1526, 2010. Staehelin, J. and Schnadt Poberaj, C.: Long-term tropospheric ozone trends: A critical review, in: Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years, edited by: Brönnimann, S., Luterbacher, J., Ewen, T., Diaz, H. F., Stolarski, R. S., and Neu, U., Adv. Global Change Res., 33, 271–282, doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-6766-2_18, 2008. Steinbrecht, W., Claude, H., Schönenborn, F., McDermid, I. S., Leblanc, T., Godin-Beekmann, S., Keckhut, P., Hauchecorne, A., Van Gijsel, J. A. E., Swart, D. P. J., Bodeker, G. E., Parrish, A., Boyd, I. S., Kampfer, N., Hocke, K., Stolarski, R. S., Frith, S. M., Thomason, L. W., Remsberg, E. E., Von Savigny, C., Rozanov, A., and Burrows, J. P.: Ozone and temperature trends in the upper stratosphere at five stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change, Int. J. Remote Sens., 30, 3875–3886, 2009. Stolarski, R S., Douglass, A R., Newman, P A., Pawson, P., and Schoeberl, M R.: Relative contribution of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances to temperature trends in the stratosphere: A Chemistry-Climate Model study, J. Climate, 23, 28–42, 2010. Stone, D A., Allen, M R., Selten, F., Kliphuis, M., and Stott, P A.: The detection and attribution of climate change using an ensemble of opportunity, J. Climate, 20, 504–516, 2007. Varotsos, C.: The Southern Hemisphere ozone hole split in 2002, Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res., 6, 375–376, 2002. Waugh, D W., Oman, L., Kawa, S R., Stolarski, R S., Pawson, S., Douglass, A R., Newman, P A., and Nielsen, J E.: Impacts of climate change on stratospheric ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03805, \doi10.1029/2008GL036223, 2009. WMO: Scientific assessment of ozone depletion: 1999, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, 1999. WMO: Scientific assessment of ozone depletion: 2006, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, 2007. WMO: Scientific assessment of ozone depletion: 2010, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, 2011. Ziemke, J R., Chandra, S., and Bhartia, P K.: Two new methods for deriving tropospheric column ozone from TOMS measurements: The assimilated UARS MLS/HALOE and convective-cloud differential techniques, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 22115–22127, 1998.