Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 599-609, 2011
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/599/2011/
doi:10.5194/acp-11-599-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
N. P. Gillett1, H. Akiyoshi2, S. Bekki3, P. Braesicke4, V. Eyring5, R. Garcia6, A. Yu. Karpechko7, C. A. McLinden8, O. Morgenstern4,9, D. A. Plummer1, J. A. Pyle4, E. Rozanov10,11, J. Scinocca1, and K. Shibata12
1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
2National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
3Service d'Aéronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France
4University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge/National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK
5Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
6National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
7Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
8Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada
9National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand
10Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
11Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
12Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

Citation: Gillett, N. P., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Eyring, V., Garcia, R., Karpechko, A. Yu., McLinden, C. A., Morgenstern, O., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., and Shibata, K.: Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 599-609, doi:10.5194/acp-11-599-2011, 2011.
 
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