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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACP</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACP</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7324</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acp-11-5365-2011</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Bayesian statistical modeling of spatially correlated error structure in atmospheric tracer inverse analysis</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mukherjee</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kasibhatla</surname>
<given-names>P. S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>West</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>09</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2011</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<issue>11</issue>
<fpage>5365</fpage>
<lpage>5382</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
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<abstract>
<p>We present and discuss the use of Bayesian modeling and computational methods for
      atmospheric chemistry inverse analyses that incorporate evaluation of spatial structure in
      model-data residuals. Motivated by problems of refining bottom-up estimates of
      source/sink fluxes of trace gas and aerosols based on satellite retrievals of atmospheric chemical
      concentrations, we address the need for  formal modeling of spatial residual error structure in global
      scale inversion models. We do this using analytically and
      computationally tractable  conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial models as components of a global
      inversion framework.  We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to
      explore and fit these spatial structures in an overall statistical
      framework that simultaneously estimates source fluxes.  Additional
      aspects of the study extend the statistical framework to utilize
      priors on source fluxes in a physically realistic manner, and to formally address
      and deal with missing data in satellite retrievals.  We demonstrate
      the analysis in the context of inferring carbon monoxide (CO) sources
      constrained by satellite retrievals of column CO from the Measurement
      of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument on the TERRA
      satellite, paying special attention to evaluating performance of the
      inverse approach using various statistical diagnostic metrics.  This
      is developed using synthetic data generated to resemble MOPITT data to
      define a proof-of-concept and model assessment, and then in analysis
      of real MOPITT data.  These studies demonstrate the ability of these simple
      spatial models  to substantially improve over  standard non-spatial models in terms of
      statistical fit, ability to recover  sources in  synthetic examples, and predictive match with
      real data.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="18"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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