ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-11-5027-2011 Nonlinear response of ozone to precursor emission changes in China: a modeling study using response surface methodology Xing J. 1 Wang S. X. 1 Jang C. 2 Zhu Y. 3 Hao J. M. 1 School of Environment, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China 31 05 2011 11 10 5027 5044 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/5027/2011/acp-11-5027-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/5027/2011/acp-11-5027-2011.pdf

Statistical response surface methodology (RSM) is successfully applied for a Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) analysis of ozone sensitivity studies. Prediction performance has been demonstrated through cross validation, out-of-sample validation and isopleth validation. Sample methods and key parameters, including the maximum numbers of variables involved in statistical interpolation and training samples have been tested and selected through computational experiments. Overall impacts from individual source categories which include local/regional NO<sub>x</sub> and VOC emission sources and NO<sub>x</sub> emissions from power plants for three megacities – Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou – were evaluated using an RSM analysis of a July 2005 modeling study. NO<sub>x</sub> control appears to be beneficial for ozone reduction in the downwind areas which usually experience high ozone levels, and NO<sub>x</sub> control is likely to be more effective than anthropogenic VOC control during periods of heavy photochemical pollution. Regional NO<sub>x</sub> source categories are strong contributors to surface ozone mixing ratios in three megacities. Local NO<sub>x</sub> emission control without regional involvement may raise the risk of increasing urban ozone levels due to the VOC-limited conditions. However, local NO<sub>x</sub> control provides considerable reduction of ozone in upper layers (up to 1 km where the ozone chemistry is NO<sub>x</sub>-limited) and helps improve regional air quality in downwind areas. Stricter NO<sub>x</sub> emission control has a substantial effect on ozone reduction because of the shift from VOC-limited to NO<sub>x</sub>-limited chemistry. Therefore, NO<sub>x</sub> emission control should be significantly enhanced to reduce ozone pollution in China.

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