References

ACP

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

ACP

1680-7324

Copernicus GmbH

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/acp-11-4915-2011

The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO2 doubling

Hinssen

Y. B. L.

¹ ⁴ Bell

C. J.

² ⁵ Siegmund

P. C.

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, The Netherlands

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute – KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands

current address: Meteo Consult bv, P.O. Box 617, 6700 AP Wageningen, The Netherlands

deceased, June 2010

26 05 2011

11 10 4915 4927

This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/4915/2011/acp-11-4915-2011.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/4915/2011/acp-11-4915-2011.pdf

The influence of a CO2 doubling on the stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) is examined in two climate models. Subsequently, the influence of changes in the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response is investigated, by inverting the stratospheric PV. Radiative effects seem to dominate the stratospheric response to CO2 doubling in the Southern Hemisphere. These lead to a stratospheric PV increase at the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in an increased westerly influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere, increasing the midlatitude tropospheric westerlies in late winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, dynamical effects are also important. Both models show a reduced polar PV and an enhanced midlatitude PV in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. These PV changes are likely related to an enhanced wave forcing of the winter stratosphere, as measured by an increase in the 100 hPa eddy heat flux, and result in a reduced westerly influence of the stratosphere on the high latitude tropospheric winds. In one model, the high latitude PV decreases are, however, restricted to higher altitudes, and the tropospheric response due to the stratospheric changes is dominated by an increased westerly influence in the midlatitudes, related to the increase in midlatitude PV in the lower stratosphere. The tropospheric response in zonal wind due to the stratospheric PV changes is of the order of 0.5 to 1 m s−1. The total tropospheric response has a somewhat different spatial structure, but is of similar magnitude. This indicates that the stratospheric influence is of importance in modifying the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO2 doubling.

References 1

Baldwin, M P., Dameris, M., and Shepherd, T G.: How will the stratosphere affect climate change?, Science, 316, 1576–1577, 2007.

Bell, C J., Gray, L J., and Kettleborough, J.: Changes in Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability under increased CO2 concentrations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1181–1190, 2010.

Black, R X.: Stratospheric forcing of surface climate in the Arctic Oscillation, J. Climate, 15, 268–277, 2002.

Black, R X. and McDaniel, B A.: Diagnostic case studies of the Northern Annular Mode, J. Climate, 17, 3990–4004, 2004.

Butchart, N. and Scaife, A A.: Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate, Nature, 410, 799–802, 2001.

Butchart, N., Austin, J., Knight, J R., Scaife, A A., and Gallani, M L.: The response of the stratospheric climate to projected changes in the concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1992 to 2051, J. Climate, 13, 2142–2159, 2000.

Charlton, A J., Polvani, L M., Perlwitz, J., Sassi, F., Manzini, E., Shibata, K., Pawson, S., Nielsen, J E., and Rind, D.: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part II: Evaluation of numerical model simulations, J. Climate, 20, 470–488, 2007.

Davis, C A.: Piecewise potential vorticity inversion, J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 1397–1411, 1992.

Edouard, S., Vautard, R., and Brunet, G.: On the maintenance of potential vorticity in isentropic coordinates, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 2069–2094, 1997.

Eichelberger, S J. and Hartmann, D L.: Changes in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in a simple AGCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15807, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022924doi:10.1029/2005GL022924, 2005.

Fels, S B., Mahlman, J D., Schwarzkopf, M D., and Sinclair, R W.: Stratospheric sensitivity to perturbations in ozone and carbon dioxide: Radiative and dynamical response, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2265–2297, 1980.

Gillett, N P., Allen, M R., McDonald, R E., Senior, C A., Shindell, D T., and Schmidt, G A.: How linear is the Arctic Oscillation response to greenhouse gases?, J. Geophys. Res., 107, D3, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000589doi:10.1029/2001JD000589, 2002.

Gillett, N P., Allen, M R., and Williams, K D.: Modelling the atmospheric response to doubled CO2 and depleted stratospheric ozone using a stratosphere-resolving coupled GCM, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 947–966, http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.102doi:10.1256/qj.02.102, 2003.

Haklander, A J., Siegmund, P C., Sigmond, M., and Kelder, H M.: How does the northern-winter wave driving of the Brewer-Dobson circulation increase in an enhanced-CO2 climate simulation?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07702, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL033054doi:10.1029/2007GL033054, 2008.

Hartley, D E., Villarin, J T., Black, R X., and Davis, C A.: A new perspective on the dynamical link between the stratosphere and troposphere, Nature, 391, 471–474, 1998.

Hartmann, D L., Wallace, J M., Limpasuvan, V., Thompson, D. W J., and Holton, J R.: Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 97, 1412–1417, 2000.

Haynes, P.: Stratospheric dynamics, Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, 37, 263–293, http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.fluid.37.061903.175710doi:10.1146/annurev.fluid.37.061903.175710, 2005.

Haynes, P H., Marks, C J., McIntyre, M E., Shepherd, T G., and Shine, K P.: On the "downward control" of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces, J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 651–678, 1991.

Hinssen, Y. B L. and Ambaum, M. H P.: Relation between the 100-hPa heat flux and stratospheric potential vorticity, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 4017–4027, 2010.

Hinssen, Y., van Delden, A., Opsteegh, T., and de~Geus, W.: Stratospheric impact on tropospheric winds deduced from potential vorticity inversion in relation to the Arctic Oscillation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 20–29, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.542doi:10.1002/qj.542, 2010.

Hoskins, B J., McIntyre, M E., and Robertson, A W.: On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 111, 877–946, 1985.

Kleinschmidt, E.: Über aufbau und entstehung von zyklonen, Meteorol. Rundsch., 3, 1–6, 1950.

Kushner, P J. and Polvani, L M.: Stratosphere-troposphere coupling in a relatively simple AGCM: The role of eddies, J. Climate, 17, 629–639, 2004.

McIntyre, M E. and Palmer, T N.: Breaking planetary waves in the stratosphere, Nature, 305, 593–600, 1983.

McIntyre, M E. and Palmer, T N.: The "surf zone" in the stratosphere, J. Atmos. Terr. Phys., 46, 825–849, 1984.

Moritz, R E., Bitz, C M., and Steig, E J.: Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic, Science, 297, 1497–1502, 2002.

Perlwitz, J. and Harnik, N.: Observational evidence of a stratospheric influence on the troposphere by planetary wave reflection, J. Climate, 16, 3011–3026, 2003.

Polvani, L M. and Waugh, D W.: Upward wave activity flux as a precursor to extreme stratospheric events and subsequent anomalous surface weather regimes, J. Climate, 17, 3548–3554, 2004.

Schnadt, C., Dameris, M., Ponater, M., Hein, R., Grewe, V., and Steil, B.: Interaction of atmospheric chemistry and climate and its impact on stratospheric ozone, Clim. Dynam., 18, 501–517, 2002.

Shepherd, T G.: Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change, Atmos. Ocean, 46, 117–138, http://dx.doi.org/10.3137/ao.460106doi:10.3137/ao.460106, 2008.

Shindell, D T., Miller, R L., Schmidt, G A., and Pandolfo, L.: Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing, Nature, 399, 452–455, 1999.

Shindell, D T., Schmidt, G A., Miller, R L., and Rind, D.: Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7193–7210, 2001.

Sigmond, M. and Scinocca, J F.: The influence of the basic state on the northern hemisphere circulation response to climate change, J. Climate, 23, 1434–1446, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3167.1doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3167.1, 2010.

Sigmond, M., Siegmund, P C., Manzini, E., and Kelder, H.: A simulation of the separate climate effects of middle-atmospheric and tropospheric CO2 doubling, J. Climate, 17, 2352–2367, 2004.

Sigmond, M., Scinocca, J F., and Kushner, P J.: Impact of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12706, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033573doi:10.1029/2008GL033573, 2008.

Thompson, D. W J., Furtado, J C., and Shepherd, T G.: On the tropospheric response to anomalous stratospheric wave drag and radiative heating, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2616–2629, 2006.

van Delden, A.: Adjustment to heating, potential vorticity and cyclogenesis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 3305–3322, 2003.

Waugh, D W., Randel, W J., Pawson, S., Newman, P A., and Nash, E R.: Persistence of the lower stratospheric polar vortices, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 27191–27201, 1999.