ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-11-4689-2011 The 2009 stratospheric major warming described from synergistic use of BASCOE water vapour analyses and MLS observations Lahoz W. A. 1 2 Errera Q. 3 Viscardy S. 3 Manney G. L. 4 5 Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning, NILU, Norway CNRM-GAME, URA1357, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique, BIRA-IASB, Belgium Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, NM, USA 20 05 2011 11 10 4689 4703 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/4689/2011/acp-11-4689-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/4689/2011/acp-11-4689-2011.pdf

The record-breaking major stratospheric warming of northern winter 2009 (January–February) is studied using BASCOE (Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvation) stratospheric water vapour analyses and MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) water vapour observations, together with meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and potential vorticity (PV) derived from ECMWF meteorological data. We focus on the interaction between the cyclonic wintertime stratospheric polar vortex and subsidiary anticyclonic stratospheric circulations during the build-up, peak and aftermath of the major warming. We show dynamical consistency between the water vapour analysed fields and the meteorological and PV fields. Using various approaches, we use the analysed water vapour fields to estimate descent in the polar vortex during this period of between ~0.5 km day<sup>−1</sup> and ~0.7 km day<sup>−1</sup>. New results include the analysis of water vapour during the major warming and demonstration of the benefit of assimilating MLS satellite data into the BASCOE model.

 References % vor jede Referenz Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001. Bernath, P. F., McElroy, C. T., Abrams, M. C., Boone, C. D., Butler, M., Camy-Peyret, C., Carleer, M., Clerbaux, C., Coheur, P.-F., Colin, R., DeCola, P., DeMazière, M., Drummond, J. R., Dufour, D., Evans, W. P. J., Fast, H., Fussen, D., Gilbert, K., Jennings, D. E., Llewellyn, E. J., Lowe, R. P., Mahieu, E., McConnell, J. C., McHugh, M., McLeod, S. D., Michaud, R., Midwinter, C., Nassar, R., Nichitiu, F., Nowlan, C., Rinsland, C. P., Rochon, Y. J., Rowlands, N., Semeniuk, K., Simon, P., Skelton, R., Sloan, J. J., Soucy, M.-A., Strong, K., Tremblay, P., Turnbull, D., Walker, K. A., Walkty, I., Wardle, D. A., Wehrle, V., Zander, R., and Zou, J.: Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE): Mission overview, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15S01, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022386doi:10.1029/2005GL022386, 2005. Charlton, A. J. and Polvani, L. M.: A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part I: Climatology and Modeling Benchmarks, J. Climate, 20, 449–469, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3996.1doi:10.1175/JCLI3996.1, 2007. Charlton-Perez, A. J., Polvani, L. M., Austin, J., and Li, F.: The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16116, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009571doi:10.1029/2007JD009571, 2008. Dethof, A. and Hólm, E.: Ozone assimilation in the ERA-40 reanalysis project, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 2851–2872, 2004. Eckermann, S. D., Hoppel, K. W., Coy, L., McCormack, J. P., Siskind, D. E., Nielsen, K., Kochenash, A., Stevens, M. H., Englert, C. R., Singer, W., and Hervig, M.: High-altitude data assimilation experiments for the northern summer mesosphere season of 2007, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 7, 531–551, 2009. El Amraoui, L., Semane, N., Peuch, V.-H., and Santee, M. L.: Investigation of dynamical processes in the polar stratospheric vortex during the unusually cold winter 2004/2005, Geophys. Res., Lett., 35, L03803, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031251doi:10.1029/2007GL031251, 2008. Errera, Q. and Fonteyn, D.: Four-dimensional variational chemical data assimilation of CRISTA stratospheric measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 12253–12265, 2001. Errera, Q., Daerden, F., Chabrillat, S., Lambert, J. C., Lahoz, W. A., Viscardy, S., Bonjean, S., and Fonteyn, D.: 4D-Var assimilation of MIPAS chemical observations: ozone and nitrogen dioxide analyses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 6169–6187, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-6169-2008doi:10.5194/acp-8-6169-2008, 2008. Feist, D. G., Geer, A. J., Müller, S., and Kämpfer, N.: Middle atmosphere water vapour and dynamical features in aircraft measurements and ECMWF analyses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5291–5307, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5291-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-5291-2007, 2007. Fisher, M. and Lary, D. J.: Lagrangian 4-Dimensional variational data assimilation of chemical species, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 1681–1704, 1995. Geer, A. J., Lahoz, W. A., Bekki, S., Bormann, N., Errera, Q., Eskes, H. J., Fonteyn, D., Jackson, D. R., Juckes, M. N., Massart, S., Peuch, V.-H., Rharmili, S., and Segers, A.: The ASSET intercomparison of ozone analyses: method and first results, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 5445–5474, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-5445-2006doi:10.5194/acp-6-5445-2006, 2006. Geer, A. J., Lahoz, W. A., Jackson, D. R., Cariolle, D., and McCormack, J. P.: Evaluation of linear ozone photochemistry parametrizations in a stratosphere-troposphere data assimilation system, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 939–959, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-939-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-939-2007, 2007. Harvey, V. L., Pierce, R. B., Fairlie, T. D., and Hitchman, M. H.: A climatology of stratospheric polar vortices and anticyclones, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4442, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001471doi:10.1029/2001JD001471, 2002. Harvey, V. L., Pierce, R. B., Hitchman, M. H., Randall, C. E., and Fairlie, T. D.: On the distribution of ozone in stratospheric anticyclones, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D24308, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004992doi:10.1029/2004JD004992, 2004. Harvey, V. L., Randall, C. E., and Hitchman, M. H.: Breakdown of potential vorticity-based equivalent latitude as vortex-centered coordinate in the polar winter mesosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D22105, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012681doi:10.1029/2009JD012681, 2009. Jackson, D. R.: Assimilation of EOS MLS ozone observations in the Met Office Data Assimilation System, Q. J. Roy. Meteor.Soc., 133, 1771–1788, 2007. Jackson, D. R. and Orsolini, Y. J.: Estimation of Arctic ozone loss in winter 2004/2005 based on assimilation of EOS MLS and SBUV/2 observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1833–1841, 2008. Juckes, M. N.: An annual cycle of long lived stratospheric gases from MIPAS, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1879–1897, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-1879-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-1879-2007, 2007. Kalnay, E.: Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 341~pp., 2003. Khattatov, B. V., Lamarque, J.-F., Lyjak, L. V., Ménard, R., Levelt, P., Tie, X., Brasseur, G. P., and Gille, J. C.: Assimilation of satellite observations of long-lived chemical species in global chemistry transport models, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 29135–29144, 2000. Labitzke, K. and Kunze, M.: On the remarkable Arctic winter in 2008/2009, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00102, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012273doi:10.1029/2009JD012273, 2009. Lahoz W. A. and Errera, Q.: Constituent Assimilation, in Data Assimilation: Making Sense of Observations, edited by: Lahoz, W. A., Khattatov, B., and Ménard, R., Springer, 449–490, 2010. Lahoz W. A., O'Neill, A., Carr, E. S., Harwood, R. S., Froidevaux, L., Read, W. G., Waters, J. W., Kumer, J. B., Mergenthaler, J. L., Roche, A. E., Peckham, G. E., and Swinbank, R.: Three-dimensional evolution of water vapor distributions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere as observed by the MLS, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2914–2930, 1994. Lahoz W. A., O'Neill, A., Heaps, A., Pope, V. D., Swinbank, R., Harwood, R. S., Froidevaux, L., Read, W. G., Waters, J. W., and Peckham, G. E.: Vortex dynamics and the evolution of water vapour in the stratosphere of the Southern Hemisphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 423–450, 1996. Lahoz, W. A., Geer, A. J., and O'Neill, A.: Dynamical evolution of the 2003 Southern Hemisphere stratospheric winter using Envisat trace gas observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1985–2008, 2006. Lahoz, W. A., Errera, Q., Swinbank, R., and Fonteyn, D.: Data assimilation of stratospheric constituents: a review, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5745–5773, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5745-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-5745-2007, 2007a. Lahoz, W. A., Geer, A. J., Bekki, S., Bormann, N., Ceccherini, S., Elbern, H., Errera, Q., Eskes, H. J., Fonteyn, D., Jackson, D. R., Khattatov, B., Marchand, M., Massart, S., Peuch, V.-H., Rharmili, S., Ridolfi, M., Segers, A., Talagrand, O., Thornton, H. E., Vik, A. F., and von Clarmann, T.: The Assimilation of Envisat data (ASSET) project, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1773–1796, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-1773-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-1773-2007, 2007b. Lahoz, W. A., Orsolini, Y. J., Geer, A. J., Choi, W., and Allen, D.: Mesosphere-stratosphere transport during southern hemisphere autumn deduced from MIPAS observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 681–694, 2009. Lahoz, W. A., Khattatov, B., and Ménard, R.: Data Assimilation and Information, in Data Assimilation: Making Sense of Observations, edited by: Lahoz, W. A., Khattatov, B., and Ménard, R., Springer, 3–12, 2010. Lambert, A., Read, W. G., Livesey, N. J., Santee, M. L., Manney, G. L., Froidevaux, L., Wu, D. L., Schwartz, M. J., Pumphrey, H. C., Jimenez, C., Nedoluha, G. E., Cofield, R. E., Cuddy, D. T., Daffer, W. H., Drouin, B. J., Fuller, R. A., Jarnot, R. F., Knosp, B. W., Pickett, H. M., Perun, V. S., Snyder, W. V., Stek, P. C., Thurstans, R. P., Wagner, P. A., Waters, J. W., Jucks, K. W., Toon, G. C., Stachnik, R. A., Bernath, P. F., Boone, C. D., Walker, K. A., Urban, J., Murtagh, D., Elkins, J. W., and Atlas, E.: Validation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder middle atmosphere water vapor and nitrous oxide measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S36, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008724doi:10.1029/2007JD008724, 2007. Lee, J. N., Wu, D. L., Manney, G. L., Schwartz, M. J., Lambert, A., Livesey, N. J., Minschwaner, K. R., Pumphrey, H. C., and Read, W. G.: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations of the Polar Middle Atmosphere: Dynamics and transport of CO and H<sub>2</sub>O, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D05110, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014608doi:10.1029/2010JD014608, 2011. Livesey, N. J., Read, W. G., Lambert, A., Cofield, R. E., Cuddy, D. T., Froidevaux, L., Fuller, R. A., Jarnot, R. F., Jiang, J. H., Jiang, Y. B., Knosp, B. W., Kovalenko, L. J., Pickett, H. M., Pumphrey, H. C., Santee, M. L., Schwartz, M. J., Stek, P. C., Wagner, P. A., Waters, J. W., and Wu, D. L.: Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) Version 2.2 Level 2 data quality and description document, JPL D-33509, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91109-8099, available at: http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/data/v2-2_data_quality_document.pdf, 2007. McCormack, J. P., Hoppel, K. W., and Siskind, D. E.: Parameterization of middle atmospheric water vapor photochemistry for high-altitude NWP and data assimilation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7519–7532, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-7519-2008doi:10.5194/acp-8-7519-2008, 2008. Manney, G. L., Zurek, R. W., O'Neill, A., and Swinbank, R.: On the Motion of Air through the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2973–2994, 1994. Manney G. L., Santee, M. L., Livesey, N. J., Froidevaux, L., Read, W. G., Pumphrey, H. C., Waters, J. W., and Pawson, S.: EOS Microwave Limb Sounder observations of the Antarctic polar vortex breakup in 2004, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L12811, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022823doi:10.1029/2005GL022823, 2005. Manney, G. L., Daffer, W. H., Zawodny, J. M., Bernath, P. F., Hoppel, K. W., Walker, K. A., Knosp, B. W., Boone, C., Remsberg, E. E., Santee, M. L., Harvey, V. L., Pawson, S., Jackson, D. R., Deaver, L., McElroy, C. T., McLinden, C. A., Drummond, J. R., Pumphrey, H. C., Lambert, A., Schwartz, M. J., Froidevaux, L., McLeod, S., Takacs, L. L., Suarez, M. J., Trepte, C. R., Cuddy, D. C., Livesey, N. J., Harwood, R. S., and Waters, J. W.: Solar occultation satellite data and derived meteorological products: Sampling issues and comparisons with Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S50, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008709doi:10.1029/2007JD008709, 2007. Manney, G. L., Harwood, R. S., MacKenzie, I. A., Minschwaner, K., Allen, D. R., Santee, M. L., Walker, K. A., Hegglin, M. I., Lambert, A., Pumphrey, H. C., Bernath, P. F., Boone, C. D., Schwartz, M. J., Livesey, N. J., Daffer, W. H., and Fuller, R. A.: Satellite observations and modeling of transport in the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere during the 2006 major stratospheric sudden warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 4775–4795, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-4775-2009doi:10.5194/acp-9-4775-2009, 2009a. Manney, G. L., Schwartz, M. J., Krüger, K., Santee, M. L., Pawson, S., Lee, J. N., Daffer, W. H., Fuller, R. A., and Livesey, N. J.: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder Observations of Dynamics and Transport During the Record-breaking 2009 Arctic Stratospheric Major Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12815, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038586doi:10.1029/2009GL038586, 2009b. Mechoso, C. R., O'Neill, A., Pope, V. D., and Farrara, J. D.: A study of the stratospheric final warming of 1982 in the southern hemisphere, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 1365–1384, 1988. Pumphrey, H. C., Filipiak, M. J., Livesey, N. J., Schwartz, M. J., Boone, C., Walker, K. A., Bernath, P., Ricaud, P., Barret, B., Clerbaux, C., Jarnot, R. F., Manney, G. L., and Waters, J. W.: Validation of middle-atmosphere carbon monoxide retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder on Aura, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S38, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008723doi:10.1029/2007JD008723, 2007. Rösevall, J. D., Murtagh, D. P., Urban, J., Feng, W., Eriksson, P., and Brohede, S.: A study of ozone depletion in the 2004/2005 Arctic winter based on data from ODIN/SMR and Aura/MLS, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D13301, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009560doi:10.1029/2007JD009560, 2008. Simmons A. J., Hortal, M., Kelly, G., McNally, A., Untch, A., and Uppala, S.: ECMWF analyses and forecasts of stratospheric winter polar vortex breakup: September 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere and related events, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 668–689, 2005. Strahan, S. E. and Polansky, B. C.: Meteorological implementation issues in chemistry and transport models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 2895–2910, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-2895-2006doi:10.5194/acp-6-2895-2006, 2006. Thornton, H. E., Jackson, D. R., Bekki, S., Bormann, N., Errera, Q., Geer, A. J., Lahoz, W. A., and Rharmili, S.: The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 995–1016, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-995-2009doi:10.5194/acp-9-995-2009, 2009. Viscardy, S., Errera, Q., Christophe, Y., Chabrillat, S., and Lambert, J.-C.: Evaluation of ozone analyses from UARS MLS assimilation by BASCOE between 1992 and 1999, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 3, 190–202, http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2010.2040463doi:10.1109/JSTARS.2010.2040463, 2010. WMO: Scientific Assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion: 2006, U.N. Environmental Programme, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007.