ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-11-3119-2011 Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020 Xing J. 1 Wang S. X. 1 Chatani S. 2 Zhang C. Y. 1 Wei W. 1 Hao J. M. 1 Klimont Z. 3 Cofala J. 3 Amann M. 3 Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China Technology and Systems Analysis Laboratory, Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc, Nagakute, Aichi 480-1192, Japan Atmospheric Pollution & Economic Development, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria 04 04 2011 11 7 3119 3136 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/3119/2011/acp-11-3119-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/3119/2011/acp-11-3119-2011.pdf

Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment; therefore, it is important to understand how China's air pollutant emissions will change and how they will affect regional air quality in the future. Emission scenarios in 2020 were projected using forecasts of energy consumption and emission control strategies based on emissions in 2005, and on recent development plans for key industries in China. We developed four emission scenarios: REF[0] (current control legislations and implementation status), PC[0] (improvement of energy efficiencies and current environmental legislation), PC[1] (improvement of energy efficiencies and better implementation of environmental legislation), and PC[2] (improvement of energy efficiencies and strict environmental legislation). Under the REF[0] scenario, the emission of SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, VOC and NH<sub>3</sub> will increase by 17%, 50%, 49% and 18% in 2020, while PM<sub>10</sub> emissions will be reduced by 10% over East China, compared to that in 2005. In PC[2], sustainable energy polices will reduce SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> emissions by 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg and 1.8 Tg, respectively; better implementation of current control policies will reduce SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> emission by 2.9 Tg, 1.8 Tg, and 1.4 Tg, respectively; strict emission standards will reduce SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> emissions by 3.2 Tg, 3.9 Tg, and 1.7 Tg, respectively. Under the PC[2] scenario, SO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>10</sub> emissions will decrease by 18% and 38%, while NO<sub>x</sub> and VOC emissions will increase by 3% and 8%, compared to that in 2005. Future air quality in China was simulated using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Under REF[0] emissions, compared to 2005, the surface concentrations of SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>2</sub>, hourly maximum ozone in summer, PM<sub>2.5</sub>, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will increase by 28%, 41%, 8%, 8%, 19% and 25%, respectively, over east China. Under the PC[2] emission scenario, the surface concentrations of SO<sub>2</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub>, total sulfur depositions will decrease by 18%, 16% and 15%, respectively, and the surface concentrations of NO<sub>2</sub>, nitrate, hourly maximum ozone in summer, total nitrogen depositions will be kept as 2005 level, over east China. The individual impacts of SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, NH<sub>3</sub>, NMVOC and primary PM emission changes on ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations have been analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that NO<sub>x</sub> emission control need to be enhanced during the summertime to obtain both ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> reduction benefits. NH<sub>3</sub> emission controls should also be considered in order to reduce both nitrate concentration and total nitrogen deposition in the future.

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