ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011 Earth's energy imbalance and implications Hansen J. 1 2 Sato M. 1 2 Kharecha P. 1 2 von Schuckmann K. 3 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10027, USA Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LOCEAN Paris, hosted by Ifremer, Brest, France 22 12 2011 11 24 13421 13449 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13421/2011/acp-11-13421-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13421/2011/acp-11-13421-2011.pdf

Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.58 ± 0.15 W m<sup>−2</sup> during the 6-yr period 2005–2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be −1.6 ± 0.3 W m<sup>−2</sup>, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade.

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