References

ACP

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

ACP

1680-7324

Copernicus GmbH

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/acp-11-1101-2011

Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005

Smith

S. J.

¹ van Aardenne

² ⁵ Klimont

³ Andres

R. J.

⁴ Volke

¹ Delgado Arias

Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA

European Commission Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via E. Fermi 2749, TP 290, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria

Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6335, USA

current address: European Environment Agency, Kongens Nytorv 6, 1050 Copenhagen K, Denmark

09 02 2011

11 3 1101 1116

This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/1101/2011/acp-11-1101-2011.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/1101/2011/acp-11-1101-2011.pdf

Sulfur aerosols impact human health, ecosystems, agriculture, and global and regional climate. A new annual estimate of anthropogenic global and regional sulfur dioxide emissions has been constructed spanning the period 1850–2005 using a bottom-up mass balance method, calibrated to country-level inventory data. Global emissions peaked in the early 1970s and decreased until 2000, with an increase in recent years due to increased emissions in China, international shipping, and developing countries in general. An uncertainty analysis was conducted including both random and systemic uncertainties. The overall global uncertainty in sulfur dioxide emissions is relatively small, but regional uncertainties ranged up to 30%. The largest contributors to uncertainty at present are emissions from China and international shipping. Emissions were distributed on a 0.5° grid by sector for use in coordinated climate model experiments.

References 1

Andreae, M. O. and Merlet, P.: Emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning: Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 955–966, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000GB001382doi:10.1029/2000GB001382, 2001.

Andres, R. J., Fielding, D. J., Marland, G., Boden, T. A., and Kumar, N.: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use, 1751–1950, Tellus, 51, 759–765, 1999.

Arndt, R. L., Carmichael, G. R., Streets, D. G., and Bhatti, N.: Sulfur dioxide emissions and sectorial contributions to sulfur deposition in Asia, Atmos Environ., 31, 1553–2310, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(96)00236-1doi:10.1016/S1352-2310(96)00236-1, 1997.

Benkovitz, C. M., Scholtz, M. T., Pacyna, J., Tarrason, L., Dignon, E. C., Voldner, P. A., Spiro, Logan, J. A., and Graedel, T. A.: Global gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen, J. Geophys. Res., 101(D22), 29239–29253, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96JD00126doi:10.1029/96JD00126, 1996.

Bond, T. C., Streets, D. G., Yarber, K. F., Nelson, S. M., Woo, J.-H., and Klimont, Z.: A technology-based global inventory of black and organic carbon emissions from combustion, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D14203, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003697doi:10.1029/2003JD003697, 2004.

Bond, T. C., Bhardwaj, E., Dong, R., Jogani, R., Jung, S., Roden, C., Streets, D. G., and Trautmann, N. M.: Historical emissions of black and organic carbon aerosol from energy-related combustion, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB2018, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002840doi:10.1029/2006GB002840, 2007.

Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University; and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Gridded Population of the World Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Density Grids. Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University, available at: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw, 2005.

Cofala, J., Amann, M., Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., and Höglund-Isaksson, L.,: Scenarios of Global Anthropogenic Emissions of Air Pollutants and Methane Until 2030, Atmos. Environ., 38, 4769–4778, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.07.010doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.07.010, 2007.

Corbett, J. J. and Köhler, H. W.: Updated emissions from ocean shipping, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D20), 4650, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003751doi:10.1029/2003JD003751, 2003.

Corbett, J. J. and Köhler, H. W.: Considering alternative input parameters in an activity-based ship fuel consumption and emissions model: Reply to comment by Øyvind Endresen et al., on "Updated emissions from ocean shipping", J. Geophys. Res., 109, D23303, doi:10.1029/2004JD005030, 2004, 2004.

Corbett, J. J., Fischbeck, P. S., and Pandis, S. N.: Global nitrogen and sulfur inventories for oceangoing ships, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D3), 3457–3470, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1998JD100040doi:10.1029/1998JD100040, 1999.

Eggleston, S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., and Tanabe, K. (Eds): 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IGES, Japan, 2006.

Endresen, Ø., Sørgard, E., Behrens, H.L., Brett, P.O., and Isaksen, I.S.A.: A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12301, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007630doi:10.1029/2006JD007630, 2007.

Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2008): International Energy Annual 2006, Washington, DC, available at: www.eia.doe.gov), 2004.

Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2009): Annual Energy Review 2008, Washington, DC, DOE/EIA-0384, 2009.

Environment Canada 1985–2006: Historical SOx emissions for Canada (version 2, 8~April~2008), available at: http://www.ec.gc.ca/, 2008.

European Environment Agency (EEA, 2002): Anthropogenic emissions of sulphur (1980–2010) in the ECE region (September 2000).

Eyring, V., Köhler, H. W., van Aardenne, J., and Lauer, A.: Emissions from international shipping: 1. The last 50 years, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D17305, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005619doi:10.1029/2004JD005619, 2005.

Eyring, V., Isaksen, I. S. A., Berntsen, T., Collins, W. J., Corbett, J. J., Endresen, O., Grainger, R. G., Moldanova, J., Schlager, H., and Stevenson, D. S.: Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping, Atmos. Environ., 44, 4735–4771, 2010.

Fernandes, S. D., Trautmann, N. M., Streets, D. G., Roden, C. A., and Bond, T. C.: Global biofuel use, 1850–2000, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB2019, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002836doi:10.1029/2006GB002836, 2007.

Fletcher, M. E.: "From coal to oil in British shipping" in: Williams, David, M., The World of Shipping, by Aldershot, Hants, England, Ashgate, Brookfield VT, 1997.

Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D. W., Haywood, J., Lean, J., Lowe, D. C., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga, G., Schulz, M., and van Dorland, R.: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing, In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B. M., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 129–234, 2007.

Fujita, S.: Sanseiu kenkyu 100 nen no rekishi to sono hensen, J. Res. Environ., 29, 82–88, 1993.

Garg, A., Shukla, P. R., and Kapshe, M.: The sectoral trends of multigas emissions inventory of India, Atmos. Environ., 40, 4608–4620, 2006.

Goldewijk, K. K: Three Centuries of Global Population Growth: A Spatial Referenced Population (Density) Database for 1700–2000 Population and Environment, 26, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-005-3346-7doi:10.1007/s11111-005-3346-7, 2005.

Gottwald, M. and Bovensmann, H. (Eds): SCIAMACHY, Exploring the Changing Earth's Atmosphere; 1st edition, Springer, ISBN 978-90-481-9895-5., 2011.

Gregg, J. S., Andres, R. J., and Marland, G.: China: the emissions pattern of the world leader in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08806, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032887doi:10.1029/2007GL032887, 2008. Gschwandtner, G., Gschwandtner, K., Eldridge, K., Mann, C., and Mobley, D.: Historic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides in the United States from 1900 to 1980, Journal of Air Pollution Control Association, 36, 139–149, 1986.

International Energy Agency/Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (IEA/OECD) Energy Statistics and Balances, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2006.

International Maritime Organization (IMO): Prevention of Air Pollution From Ships. Sulphur monitoring for 2007 (Marine Environment Protection Committee, 57th session, MEPC 57/4/24), 2007.

European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) release version 4.1., available at: http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu, 2010.

Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Schöpp W., Amann, M., Streets, D. G., Ichikawa, Y., and Fujita, S.: Projections of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030, J. Water Air Soil Poll., 130, 193–198, 2001.

Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Xing, J., Wei, W., Zhang, C., Wang, S., Kejun, J., Bhandari, P., Mathur, R., Purohit, P., Rafaj, P., Chambers, A., Amann, M., and Hao, J.: Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia, Tellus B, 61, 602–617, 2009.

Konovalov, I. B., Beekmann, M., Burrows, J. P., and Richter, A.: Satellite measurement based estimates of decadal changes in European nitrogen oxides emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 2623–2641, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-2623-2008doi:10.5194/acp-8-2623-2008, 2008.

Krotkov, N. A., McClure, B., Dickerson, R. R., Carn, S. A., Li, C., Bhartia, P. K., Yang, K., Krueger, A. J., Li, Z., Levelt, P. F., Chen, H., Wang, P., and Lu, D.: Validation of SO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument over NE China, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16S40, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008818doi:10.1029/2007JD008818, 2008.

Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., McConnell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017–7039, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010.

Lefohn, A. S., Husar, J. D., and Husar, R. B.: Estimating historical anthropogenic global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850–1990, Atmos. Environ., 33, 3435–3444, 1999.

Li, C., Zhang, Q. N., Krotkov, D. G., Streets, K., He, S.-C., Tsay, and Gleason, J. F.: Recent large reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions from Chinese power plants observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument GRL 37, L08807, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042594doi:10.1029/2010GL042594, 2010.

Logan, J: Diverging energy and economic growth in China: where has all the coal gone?, Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 11, 1–13, 2001.

Lu, Z., Streets, D. G., Zhang, Q., Wang, S., Carmichael, G. R., Cheng, Y. F., Wei, C., Chin, M., Diehl, T., and Tan, Q.: Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6311–6331, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6311-2010doi:10.5194/acp-10-6311-2010, 2010.

Mieville, A., Granier, C., Liousse, C., B. Guillaume, Mouillot, F., Lamarque, J.-F.,. Gre�goire, J.-M, and Pe�tron, G.: Emissions of gases and particles from biomass burning using satellite data and an historical reconstruction, Atmos Environ, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.01.011, 2010.

Miola, A. Ciuffo, B., Giovine, E., and Marra, M.: The State of the Art on Methodologies, Technologies and Policy Options, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2010.

Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K., Carter, T., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Manning, M., Meehl, J., Mitchell, J., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Rose, S., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R., Thomson, A. M., van Vuuren, D., Weyant, J., and Wilbanks, T.: Representative Concentration Pathways: A New Approach to Scenario Development for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Nature, 463, 747–756, 2010.

Mylona, S.: Sulphur dioxide emissions in Europe 1880–1991 and their effect on sulphur concentrations and depositions, Tellus B, 48, 662–689, 1996.

Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (Eds.): Emissions Scenarios 2000: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

National Institute of Environmental Research-Korea (NIER), available at: http://airemiss.nier.go.kr/ Downloaded 09-11-2008, 2008.

Ohara, T., Akimoto, H., Kurokawa, J., Horii, N., Yamaji, K., Yan, X., and Hayasaka, T.: An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 4419–4444, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-4419-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-4419-2007, 2007.

Olivier, J. G. J. and Berdowski, J. J. M.: Global emissions sources and sinks, in: The Climate System, edited by: Berdowski, J., Guicherit, R., and Heij, B. J., 33–78, A A. Balkema Publishers/Swets & Zeitlinger Publishers, Lisse, The Netherlands, ISBN: 90 5809 255 0, 2001.

Olivier, J. G. J., Bouwman, A. F., van der Maas, C. W. M., Berdowski, J. J. M., Veldt, C., Bloos, J. P. J., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Zandveld, P. Y. J., and Haverlag, J. L.: Description of EDGAR Version 2.0: A set of global emission inventories of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances for all anthropogenic and most natural sources on a per country basis and on 1 × 1 degree grid. National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) report no. 771060 002/TNO-MEP report no. R96/119, 1996.

Olivier, J. G. J., van Aardenne, J. A., Dentener, F., Pagliari, V., Ganzeveld, L. N., and J. A. H. W., Peters: Recent trends in global greenhouse gas emissions: regional trends 1970–2000 and spatial distribution of key sources in 2000, Environ. Sci., 2(2–3), 81–99, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15693430500400345doi:10.1080/15693430500400345, 2005.

Öm, G., Hansson U., and Rodhe, H.: Historical worldwide emissions of anthropogenic sulfur: 1860–1985, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Report CM-91, 1996.

Schöpp, W., Klimont, Z., Suutari, R., and Cofala, J.: Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model, Environmental Science and Policy, 8, 601–613, 2005.

Schultz, M. G., Heil, A., Hoelzemann, J. J., Spessa, A., Thonicke, K., Goldammer, J., Held, A .C., Pereira, J. M., and van het Bolscher, M.: Global Wildland Fire Emissions from 1960 to 2000, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, GB2002, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003031doi:10.1029/2007GB003031, 2008.

Smith, S. J., Pitcher, H., and Wigley, T. M. L: Global and Regional Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, Global Planet. Change, 29(1–2), 99–119, 2001.

Smith, S. J., Andres, R., Conception, E., and Lurz, J.: Sulfur Dioxide Emissions: 1850–2000 (JGCRI Report. PNNL-14537), 2004.

Smith, S. J., Pitcher, H., and Wigley, T.M.L.: Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, Clim. Change, 73(3), 267–318, 2005.

Spiro, P. A., Jacob, D. J., and Logan, J. A.: Global inventory of sulfur emissions with a $1^\circ \times 1^\circ$ resolution, J. Geophys. Res, 97, 6023–6036, 1992.

Stern, D.I .: Reversal of the trend in global anthropogenic sulfur emissions, Global Environ. Change, 16, 207–220, 2006.

Streets, D. G. and Waldhoff, S. T.: Present and future emissions of air pollutants in China: SO2, NOx, and CO Atmos. Environ., 34, 363–374, 2000.

Streets, D. G., Tsai, N. Y., Akimoto, H., and Oka, K.: Sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia in the period 1985–1997, Atmos. Environ., 34, 4413–4424, 2000.

Streets, D., Bond, T. C., Carmichael, G. R., Fernandes, S. D., Fu, Q., He, D., Klimont, Z., Nelson, S. M., Tsai, N. Y., Wang, M. Q., Woo, J.-H., and Yarber, K. F.: An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8809, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003093doi:10.1029/2002JD003093, 2003.

US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1996), National Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900–1995, EPA-454/R-96-007, Washington, DC, 1996.

UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, available at: http://www.naei.org.uk/, 2009.

UNFCCC: National Inventory Submissions of Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC, available at: http://unfccc.int/, 2008.

United Nations: The United Nations Energy Statistics Database (UN, 1996) (United Nations Statistics Division, New York, June, 1996.

United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP): Sulphur Levels in Diesel Fuel Matrix tables, various regions, Partnership for Clean Fuel and Vehicles, downloaded 10/9/2008, 2008.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, 2008 Country submissions, Downloaded 1/2/2009, available at: http://unfccc.int/, 2009.

van Aardenne, J. A., Dentener, F. J., Olivier, J. G. J., Klein Goldewijk, C. G. M., and Lelieveld, J.: A 1 × 1 degree resolution dataset of historical anthropogenic trace gas emissions for the period 1890–1990, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 909–928, 2001.

van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Kasibhatla, P. S., and Arellano Jr., A. F.: Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3423–3441, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3423-2006doi:10.5194/acp-6-3423-2006, 2006.

van Vuuren, D., Smith, S. J., and Riahi, K.: Downscaling Drivers of Global Environmental Scenarios, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, Climate Change, 1(3), 393–404, http://dx.doi:10.1002/wcc.50doi:10.1002/wcc.50, 2010.

van Vuuren, D. P., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Joos, F., Strassmann, K. M., Smith, S. J., Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., de la Chesnaye, F., den Elzen, M., Fujino, J., Jiang, K., Nakicenovic, N., Paltsev, S., and Reilly, J. M.: Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios. P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 15258–15262, 2008.

Vestreng, V., Myhre, G., Fagerli, H., Reis, S., and Tarrasón, L.: Twenty-five years of continuous sulphur dioxide emission reduction in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 3663–3681, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-3663-2007doi:10.5194/acp-7-3663-2007, 2007.

Xu, Y., Williams, R. H., and Socolow, R. H.: China's rapid deployment of SO2 scrubbers, Energy Environ. Sci., 2, 459–465,2009.

Yevich, R. and Logan, J.: An assessment of biofuel use and burning of agricultural waste in the developing world, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1095–1034, 2003.

Zhang, Q., Streets, D. G., Carmichael, G. R., He, K. B., Huo, H., Kannari, A., Klimont, Z., Park, I. S., Reddy, S., Fu, J. S., Chen, D., Duan, L., Lei, Y., Wang, L. T., and Yao, Z. L.: Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 5131–5153, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5131-2009doi:10.5194/acp-9-5131-2009, 2009.