ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-10-9647-2010 Will climate change increase ozone depletion from low-energy-electron precipitation? Baumgaertner A. J. G. 1 Jöckel P. 1 3 Dameris M. 2 Crutzen P. J. 1 Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany now at: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany 11 10 2010 10 19 9647 9656 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9647/2010/acp-10-9647-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9647/2010/acp-10-9647-2010.pdf

We investigate the effects of a strengthened stratospheric/mesospheric residual circulation on the transport of nitric oxide (NO) produced by energetic particle precipitation. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, energetic electron precipitation (EEP) is responsible for winter time ozone loss in the polar middle atmosphere between 1 and 6 hPa. However, as climate change is expected to increase the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation including extratropical downwelling, the enhancements of EEP NO<sub>x</sub> concentrations are expected to be transported to lower altitudes in extratropical regions, becoming more significant in the ozone budget. Changes in the mesospheric residual circulation are also considered. We use simulations with the chemistry climate model system EMAC to compare present day effects of EEP NO<sub>x</sub> with expected effects in a climate change scenario for the year 2100. In years of strong geomagnetic activity, similar to that observed in 2003, an additional polar ozone loss of up to 0.4 μmol/mol at 5 hPa is found in the Southern Hemisphere. However, this would be approximately compensated by an ozone enhancement originating from a stronger poleward transport of ozone from lower latitudes caused by a strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation, as well as by slower photochemical ozone loss reactions in a stratosphere cooled by risen greenhouse gas concentrations. In the Northern Hemisphere the EEP NO<sub>x</sub> effect appears to lose importance due to the different nature of the climate-change induced circulation changes.

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