ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010 The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century Charlton-Perez A. J. 1 Hawkins E. 1 Eyring V. 2 Cionni I. 2 Bodeker G. E. 3 Kinnison D. E. 4 Akiyoshi H. 5 Frith S. M. 6 Garcia R. 4 Gettelman A. 4 Lamarque J. F. 4 Nakamura T. 5 Pawson S. 7 Yamashita Y. 5 Bekki S. 8 Braesicke P. 9 Chipperfield M. P. 10 Dhomse S. 10 Marchand M. 8 Mancini E. 11 Morgenstern O. 12 Pitari G. 11 Plummer D. 13 Pyle J. A. 9 Rozanov E. 14 15 Scinocca J. 13 Shibata K. 16 Shepherd T. G. 17 Tian W. 10 Waugh D. W. 18 University of Reading, Dept. of Meteorology, Reading, UK Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany Bodeker Scientific, The Elms, Alexandra, New Zealand National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham MD 20706, USA NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA Service d'Aeronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge, UK University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, UK Universit� L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, Italy National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Reasearch, Lauder, New Zealand Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zurich, Switzerland Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan University of Toronto, Department of Physics, Canada Johns Hopkins University, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Baltimore, Maryland, USA 07 10 2010 10 19 9473 9486 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9473/2010/acp-10-9473-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9473/2010/acp-10-9473-2010.pdf

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

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