ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-10-6873-2010 Effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on fire activity in the North American boreal forest: implications for fire weather forecasting Peterson D. 1 Wang J. 1 2 Ichoku C. 2 Remer L. A. 2 Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 23 07 2010 10 14 6873 6888 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/6873/2010/acp-10-6873-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/6873/2010/acp-10-6873-2010.pdf

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000–2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-km gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above ~5700 m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts.

 References Amiro, B. D., Logan, K. A., Wotton, B. M., Flannigan, M. D., Todd, J. B., Stocks, B. J., and Martell, D. L.: Fire weather index system components for large fires in the Canadian boreal forest, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 13, 391–400, 2004. Anderson, K.: A model to predict lightning-caused fire occurrences, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 11, 163–172, 2002. Boles, S. H. and Verbyla, D. L.: Comparison of three AVHRR-based fire detection algorithms for interior Alaska, Remote Sens. Environ., 72, 1–16, 2000. Burgan, R. E., Klaver, R. W., and Klaver, J. M.: Fuel models and fire potential from satellite and surface observations, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 8, 159–170, 1998. Burrows, W. R., King, P., Lewis, P. J., Kochtubajda, B., Snyder, B., and Turcotte, V.: Lightning occurrence patterns over Canada and adjacent United States from Lightning Detection Network observations, Atmos.-Ocean, 40, 59–80, 2002. Choi, W., Kim, S. J., Rasmussen, P. F., and Moore, A. R.: Use of the North American Regional Reanalysis for Hydrological Modeling in Manitoba, Can. Water Resour. J., 34, 17–36, 2009. Cummins, K. L., Krider, E. P., and Malone, M. D.: The US National Lightning Detection Network (TM) and applications of cloud-to-ground lightning data by electric power utilities, IEEE T. Electromagn. C., 40, 465–480, 1998. Dissing, D. and Verbyla, D. L.: Spatial patterns of lightning strikes in interior Alaska and their relations to elevation and vegetation, Can. J. Forest Res., 33, 770–782, 2003. Ebisuzaki, W.: National Climatic Data Center Data Documentation for NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) North American Regional Reanalysis, National Climatic Data Center, Ashville, NC, 11 pp., 2004. Fauria, M. M. and Johnson, E. A.: Large-scale climatic patterns control large lightning fire occurrence in Canada and Alaska forest regions, J. Geophys. Res., 111, G04008, doi:10.1029/2006jg000181, 2006. Flannigan, M. D. and Harrington, J. B.: A Study of the Relation of Meteorological Variables to Monthly Provincial Area Burned by Wildfire in Canada, J. Appl. Meteorol., 27, 441–452, 1988. Flannigan, M. D. and Wotton, B. M.: Lightning-Ignited Forest Fires in Northwestern Ontario, Can. J. Forest Res., 21, 277–287, 1991. Gao, B. C., Xiong, X. X., Li, R. R., and Wang, D. Y.: Evaluation of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer special 3.95-mu m fire channel and implications on fire channel selections for future satellite instruments, J. Appl. Remote Sens., 1, 013516, doi:10.1117/1.2757715, 2007. Giglio, L., Descloitres, J., Justice, C. O., and Kaufman, Y. J.: An enhanced contextual fire detection algorithm for MODIS, Remote Sens. Environ., 87, 273–282, doi:10.1016/s0034-4257(03)00184-6, 2003. Haines, D. A.: A lower atmosphere severity index for wildland fire, National Weather Digest, 13, 23–27, 1988. Hall, B. L.: Precipitation associated with lightning-ignited wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 16, 242–254, 2007. Ichoku, C., Giglio, L., Wooster, M. J., and Remer, L. A.: Global characterization of biomass-burning patterns using satellite measurements of fire radiative energy, Remote Sens. Environ., 112, 2950–2962, 2008a. Ichoku, C., Martins, J. V., Kaufman, Y. J., Wooster, M. J., Freeborn, P. H., Hao, W. M., Baker, S., Ryan, C. A., and Nordgren, B. L.: Laboratory investigation of fire radiative energy and smoke aerosol emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D14S09, doi:10.1029/2007jd009659, 2008b. Ichoku, C. and Kaufman, Y. J.: A method to derive smoke emission rates from MODIS fire radiative energy measurements, Ieee T. Geosci. Remote, 43, 2636–2649, 2005. Jordan, N. S., Ichoku, C., and Hoff, R. M.: Estimating smoke emissions over the US Southern Great Plains using MODIS fire radiative power and aerosol observations, Atmos. Environ., 42, 2007–2022, 2008. Justice, C. O., Giglio, L., Korontzi, S., Owens, J., Morisette, J. T., Roy, D., Descloitres, J., Alleaume, S., Petitcolin, F., and Kaufman, Y.: The MODIS fire products, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 244–262, 2002. Kaufman, Y. J., Ichoku, C., Giglio, L., Korontzi, S., Chu, D. A., Hao, W. M., Li, R. R., and Justice, C. O.: Fire and smoke observed from the Earth Observing System MODIS instrument – products, validation, and operational use, Int. J. Remote Sens., 24, 1765–1781, 2003. Kaufman, Y. J., Justice, C. O., Flynn, L. P., Kendall, J. D., Prins, E. M., Giglio, L., Ward, D. E., Menzel, W. P., and Setzer, A. W.: Potential global fire monitoring from EOS-MODIS, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 32215–32238, 1998a. Kaufman, Y. J., Kleidman, R. G., and King, M. D.: SCAR-B fires in the tropics: Properties and remote sensing from EOS-MODIS, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 31955–31968, 1998b. Kelha, V., Rauste, Y., Hame, T., Sephton, T., Buongiorno, A., Frauenberger, O., Soini, K., Venalainen, A., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., and Vainio, T.: Combining AVHRR and ATSR satellite sensor data for operational boreal forest fire detection, Int. J. Remote Sens., 24, 1691–1708, 2003. Kim, S. J., Lee, M., Choi, W., and Rasmussen, P. F.: Utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis for climate change impact assessment on water resources in central Canada, Proceedings for the 13th World Water Congress, Montpellier, France, 14, 1–4, 2008. Mesinger, F., DiMego, G., Kalnay, E., Mitchell, K., Shafran, P. C., Ebisuzaki, W., Jovic, D., Woollen, J., Rogers, E., Berbery, E. H., Ek, M. B., Fan, Y., Grumbine, R., Higgins, W., Li, H., Lin, Y., Manikin, G., Parrish, D., and Shi, W.: North American Regional Reanalysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 343–360, 2006. Potter, B. E., Winkler, J. A., Wilhelm, D. F., and Shadbolt, R. P.: Computing the low-elevation variant of the Haines index for fire weather forecasts, Weather Forecast., 23, 159–167, 2008. Reap, R. M.: Climatological characteristics and objective prediction of thunderstorms over Alaska, Weather Forecast., 6, 309–319, 1991. Roberts, G., Wooster, M. J., and Lagoudakis, E.: Annual and diurnal african biomass burning temporal dynamics, Biogeosciences, 6, 849–866, doi:10.5194/bg-6-849-2009, 2009. Roberts, G., Wooster, M. J., Perry, G. L. W., Drake, N., Rebelo, L. M., and Dipotso, F.: Retrieval of biomass combustion rates and totals from fire radiative power observations: Application to southern Africa using geostationary SEVIRI imagery, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D21111, doi:10.1029/2005jd006018, 2005. Rorig, M. L. and Ferguson, S. A.: Characteristics of Lightning and Wildland Fire Ignition in the Pacific Northwest, J. Appl. Meteorol., 38, 1565–1575, 1999. Rorig, M. L. and Ferguson, S. A.: The 2000 fire season: Lightning-caused fires, J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 786–791, 2002. Skinner, W. R., Flannigan, M. D., Stocks, B. J., Martell, D. L., Wotton, B. M., Todd, J. B., Mason, J. A., Logan, K. A., and Bosch, E. M.: A 500 hPa synoptic wildland fire climatology for large Canadian forest fires, 1959–1996, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 71, 157–169, 2002. Skinner, W. R., Stocks, B. J., Martell, D. L., Bonsal, B., and Shabbar, A.: The association between circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere and area burned by wildland fire in Canada, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 63, 89–105, 1999. Solaiman, T. and Simonovic, S. P.: NCEP-NCAR Reanalyses Hydroclimatic Data for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling on a Watershed Scale, CD Rom Proceedings, 33rd IAHR Congress: Water Engineering for a Sustainable Environment, 1100–1107, 978-94-90365-01-1, 2009. Spracklen, D. V., Logan, J. A., Mickley, L. J., Park, R. J., Yevich, R., Westerling, A. L., and Jaffe, D. A.: Wildfires drive interannual variability of organic carbon aerosol in the western US in summer, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16816, doi:10.1029/2007gl030037, 2007. Stocks, B. J., Mason, J. A., Todd, J. B., Bosch, E. M., Wotton, B. M., Amiro, B. D., Flannigan, M. D., Hirsch, K. G., Logan, K. A., Martell, D. L., and Skinner, W. R.: Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8149, doi:10.1029/2001jd000484, 2002. Werth, P. and Ochoa, R.: The evaluation of Idaho wildfire growth using the Haines Index, Weather Forecast., 8, 223–234, 1993. Wooster, M. J.: Small-scale experimental testing of fire radiative energy for quantifying mass combusted in natural vegetation fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2027, doi:10.1029/2002gl015487, 2002. Wooster, M. J., Roberts, G., Perry, G. L. W., and Kaufman, Y. J.: Retrieval of biomass combustion rates and totals from fire radiative power observations: FRP derivation and calibration relationships between biomass consumption and fire radiative energy release, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D24311, doi:10.1029/2005jd006318, 2005. Wooster, M. J., Zhukov, B., and Oertel, D.: Fire radiative energy for quantitative study of biomass burning: derivation from the BIRD experimental satellite and comparison to MODIS fire products, Remote Sens. Environ., 86, 83–107, 2003. Wotton, B. M. and Martell, D. L.: A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario, Can. J. Forest Res., 35, 1389–1401, 2005.