ACP Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ACP 1680-7324 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acp-10-3813-2010 Radiosonde stratospheric temperatures at Dumont d'Urville (Antarctica): trends and link with polar stratospheric clouds David C. 1 3 Keckhut P. 1 Armetta A. 1 Jumelet J. 1 Snels M. 2 Marchand M. 1 Bekki S. 1 LATMOS-IPSL, UVSQ, Univ. UPMC Paris 6, Paris, France ISAC-CNR, Rome, Italy also at: Institut Polaire Français Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV), Plouzané, France 23 04 2010 10 8 3813 3825 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/3813/2010/acp-10-3813-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/3813/2010/acp-10-3813-2010.pdf

Temperature profiles measurements are performed daily (00:00 UT) in Dumont d'Urville (66°40' S, 140°01' E) by Météo-France, using standard radiosondes, since the International Geophysical Year in 1957. Yet, due to a 16 years data gap between 1963 and 1978, the entire dataset is only used for a qualitative overview. Only the most recent series, between 1979 and 2008, is used to investigate the inter-annual stratospheric temperatures variability. Over Dumont d'Urville, at the edge of the vortex, the annual mean temperature cooling of about 1 K/decade at 20 km is the result of the cooling trends between 0.5 and 1.4 K/decade, in summer and autumn and a warming of about 1.1 K/decade in spring. These values are consistent with values obtained using data from inner vortex stations, but with smaller amplitude. No statistically significant trend is detected in winter. We propose here the first attempt to link stratospheric temperature trends to Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) trends in Antarctica based on the only continuous 20 years database of PSC lidar detection. Despite the absence of mean temperature trend during winter, the occurrence of temperatures below the NAT threshold between 1989 and 2008 reveals a significant trend of about +6%/decade. The PSCs occurrences frequency exhibits a concomitant trend of about +3%/decade, although not statistically significant. Yet, this is consistent with results obtained in the Northern Hemisphere. Such a possible positive trend in PSC occurrence has to be further explored to be confirmed or invalidated. If confirmed, this PSC trend is likely to have strong impacts, both on ozone recovery and climate evolution in Antarctica. The study also reveals the importance of trends on extreme temperatures, and not only on mean temperatures.

 References ASAP, Assessment on Stratospheric Aerosol Properties: WCRP-124, WMO/TD-No.\ 1295, SPARC Report No. 4, 2006. Austin, J., Wilson, R. J., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Claud, C., Fomichev, V. I., Forster, P., Garcia, R. R., Gillett, N. P., Keckhut, P., Langematz, U., Manzini, E., Nagashima, T., Randel, W. J., Rozanov, E., Shibata, K., Shine, K. P., Struthers, H., Thompson, D. W. J., Wu, F., and Yoden, S.: Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13809, doi:10.1029/2009GL038462, 2009. Beig, G., Keckhut, P., Lowe, R. P., Roble, R. G., Mlynczak, M. G., Scheer, J., Fomichev V. I., Offermann D., French W. J. R., Shepherd, M. G., Semenov, A. I., Remsberg, E. E., She, C. Y., Lübken, F. J., Bremer J., Clemesha, B. R., Stegman, J., Sigernes, F., and Fadnavis, S.: Review of mesospheric temperature trends, Rev. Geophys., 41(4), 1015, doi:10.1029/2002RG000121, 2003. Butchart, N., Scaife, A. A., Bourqui M., de Grandpr\'e, J., Hare, S. H. E., Kettleborough, J., Langematz, U., Manzoni, E., Sassy, F., Shibata, K., Shindell, D., and Sigmund, M.: Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, Clim. Dinam., 27, 727–741, 2006. Cordero, E. C. and de Forster P. M.: Stratospheric variability and trends on models used for the IPCC AR4, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 5369–5380, 2006. Dameris, M., Grew, V., Ponater, M., Deckert, R., Eyring, V., Mager, F., Matthes, S., Schnadt, C., Stenke, A., Steil, B., Brühl, C., and Giorgetta, M. A.: Long-term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry-climate model employing realistic forcing, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2121–2145, 2005. David, C., Bekki, S., Godin, S., Mégie, G., and Chipperfield, M. P.: Polar Stratospheric Clouds climatology over Dumont d'Urville between 1989 and 1993 and the influence of volcanic aerosols on their formation, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 22163–22180, 1998. Drdla, K. and M. R. Schoeberl, Microphysical modeling of the 1999–2000 Arctic winter 2. Chlorine activation and ozone depletion, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8319, doi:10.1029/2001JD001159, 2003. Engel, A., Mobius, T., Bonisch, H., Schmidt, U., Heinz, R., Levin, I., Atlas, E., Aoki, S., Nakazawa, T., Sugawara, S., Moore, F., Hurst, D., Elkins, J., Schauffler, S., Andrews, A., and Boering, K.: Age of stratospheric air unchanged within uncertainties over the past 30 years, Nat. Geosci., 2, 28–31, 2009. Forster, P. and Shine K. P.: Radiative forcing and temperature trends from stratospheric ozone changes, J. Geophys. Res., $102$, 10,841–10,855, 1997. Gaffen, D. J., Sargent, M. A., Habermann, R. E., and Lanzante, J. R.: Sensitivity of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature trends to radiosonde data quality, J. Clim., 13, 1776–1796, 2000. Godin, S., Bergeret, V., Bekki, S., David, C., and Mégie, G.: Study of the interannual ozone loss and the permeability of the Antarctic polar vortex from aerosol and ozone lidar measurements in Dumont d'Urville (66,4&deg;S, 140&deg; E), J. Geophys. Res., 106, 1311–1330, 2001. Hansen, J., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., and Sato, M.: Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19(2), 215–218, 1992. Hanson, D. R. and Mauersberger, K.: Laboratory studies of the nitric acid trihydrate: Implications for the South Polar Stratosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 15, 855–858, 1988. Hauchecorne, A., Chanin, M. L., and Keckhut, P.: Climatology and trends of the middle atmospheric temperature (33–87 km) as seen by Rayleigh lidar over the south of France, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 15297–15309, 1991. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, edited by: Pachauri, R. K. and Reisinger, A., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp., 2007. Jiang, X., Eichelberger, S. J., Hartmann, D. L., Shia, R., and Yuan, Y. L.: Influence of doubled CO<sub>2</sub> on ozone via changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2751–2755, 2007. Keckhut, P., Hauchecorne, A., and Chanin, M. L.: Mid-latitude long-term variability of the middle atmosphere trends, and cyclic and episodic changes, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 18887–18897, 1995. Keckhut, P., Schmidlin, F. J., Hauchecorne, A., and Chanin, M. L.: Stratospheric and mesospheric cooling trend estimates from us rocketsondes at low latitude stations (8&deg; S–34&deg; N), taking into account instrumental changes and natural variability, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 61, 447-459, 1999. Kerzenmacher, T. E., Keckhut, P., Hauchecorne, A., and Chanin, M. L.: Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series, J. Environ. Monit., 8, 682–690, doi:10.1039/b603750j, 2006. Kurylo, M. J. and Solomon, S.: Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change: a status and implementation report, NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Program and NOAA Climate and Global Change Program (NASA), Washington DC, USA, 1990. Labitzke, K. and McCormick, M. P.: Stratospheric temperature increases due to Pinatubo aerosols, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 207–210, 1992. Lachlan-Cope, T. A., Connolley, W. M., Turner, J., Roscoe, H., Marshall, G. J., Colwell, S. R., Höpfner, M., and Ingram, W.: Antarctic winter tropospheric warming – the potential role of polar stratospheric clouds, a sensitivity study, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 10, 262–266, doi:10.1002/asl.238, 2009. Langematz, U., Kunze, M., Krüger, K., Labitzke, K., and Roff, G. L.: Thermal and dynamical changes of the stratosphere since 1979 and their link to ozone and CO<sub>2</sub> changes, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4027, doi:10.1029/2002JD002069, 2003. Li, F., Austin, J., and Wilson, J.: The strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in a changing climate: Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations, J. Climate, 21, 40–57, 2008. Li, F., Stolarski R. S., and Newman, P. A.: Stratospheric ozone in the post-CFC era, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2207–2213, 2009. Logan, J. A.: Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone: An analysis of ozonesonde data, J. Geophys. Res., 99(D12), 25553–25586, 1994. Lowe, D. and MacKenzie, A. R.: Polar stratospheric cloud microphysics and chemistry, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phy., 70, 13–40, 2008. Mayewski, P.A., Meredith M.P., Summerhayes C.P., Turner J., Worby A., Barrett P.J., Casassa G., Bertler N.A.N., Bracegirdle T., Naveira Garabato A.C., Bromwich D., Campbell H., Hamilton G.S., Lyons W.B., Maasch K.A., Aoki S., Xiao C., and van Ommen T.: State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, Rev. Geophys., 47, RG1003, doi:10.1029/2007RG000231, 2009. Newman, P. A, Nash E. R.: The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter of 2002, J. Atmosph. Sci., 62, 3, 614–628, 2005. Parker, D. E., and Cox D. I.: Toward a consistent global climatological rawinsonde data base, Int. J. Climatology, 15, 473–496, 1995. Peter, T.: Microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds, Ann. Rev. Phys. Chem., 48, 779–816, 1997. Pitts, M. C., Thomason, L. W., Poole, L. R., and Winker, D. M.: Characterization of polar stratospheric clouds with spaceborne lidar: CALIPSO and the 2006 Antarctic season, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5207–-5228, 2007. Ramaswamy, V., Chanin, M. L., Angell, J., Barnett, J., Gaffen, D., Gelman, M., Keckhut, P., Koshelkov, Y., Labitzke, K., Lin, R., O'Neill, A., Nash, J., Randel, W., Rood, R., Shine, K., Shiotani, M. and Swinbank, R.: Stratospheric temperature trends: observations and model simulations, Rev. Geophys., 39, 71–122, 2001. Ramaswamy, V. and Schwarzkopf, M. D.: Effects of ozone and well-mixed gases on annual-mean stratospheric temperature trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2064, doi:10.1029/2002GL015141, 2002. Ramaswamy, V., Schwarzkopf M. D., Randel W. J., Santer B. D., Soden B. J., and Stenchikov, G. L.: Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling, Science, 311, 1138–1141, 2006. Randel, W. J. and Wu, F.: Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic polar stratospheres due to ozone depletion, J. Climate, 12, 1467–1479, 1999. Randel, W.J, Shine, K. P., Austin, J., Barnett, J., Claud, C., Gillett, N. P., Keckhut, P., Langematz, U., Lin, R., Long, C., Mears, C., Miller, A., Nash, J., Seidel, D. J., Thompson, D. W. J., Wu F., and Yoden, S.: An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends, J. Geopys. Res., 114, D02107, doi:10.1029/2008JD010421, 2009. Rex, M., Salawitch, R. J., von der Gathen, P., Harris, N. R. P., Chipperfield, M. P., and Naujokat, B.: Arctic ozone loss and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L04116, doi:10.1029/2003GL018844, 2004. Rind, D., Suozzo, R., Balanchandra, N. K. and Prather, M. J.: Climate change and the middle atmosphere. Part I: The doubled CO<sub>2</sub> climate, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 475–494, 1990. Rind, D., Blachandran, N. K., and Suozzo, R.: Climate change and the Middle Atmosphere. Part II: The impact of Volcanic aerosols, J. Climate, 5, 189–208, 1992. Robock, A.: Volcanic eruptions and climate, Rev. Geophys., 38, 191–219, 2000. Robock, A., Adams, T., Moore, M., Oman, L., and Stenchikov, G.: Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031403, 2007. Rosier, S. M. and Shine K. P.: The effect of two decades of ozone change on stratospheric temperature, as indicated by a general circulation model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2617–2620, 2000. Santacesaria, V., MacKenzie, A. R., and Stefanutti, L.: A climatological study of polar stratospheric clouds (1989–1997) from lidar measurements over Dumont d'Urville (Antarctica), Tellus (B), 53, 306–321, 2001. Sato, M., Hansen, J. E., McCormick, M. P. and Pollack, J. B.: Stratospheric aerosol optical depth, 1850–1990, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22987–22994, 1993. Shepherd, T. G.: Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change, Atmos.-Ocean, 46, 117–138, 2008. Shindell, D. T., and Schmidt, G. A.: Southern hemisphere climate response to ozone changes and greenhouse gas increase, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18209, doi~:101029/2004GL020724, 2004. Shine, K.P., Bourqui M.S. , de F. Forster P.M., Hare S.H.E., Langematz U., Braesicke P., Grewe V., Ponater M., Schnadt C., Smith C.A., Haigh J.D., Austin J., Butchart N., Shindell D.T., Randel W.J., Nagashima T., Portmann R.W., Solomon S., Seidel D.J., Lanzante J., Klein S., Ramaswamy V., and Schwarzkopf M.D.: A comparison of model-simulated trends in stratospheric temperatures, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 129, 1565–1588, DOI: 10.1256/qj.02.186, 2003. Simmons, A., Hortal, M., Kelly, G., McNally, A., Untch, A., and Uppala, S.: ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts of Stratospheric Winter Polar Vortex Breakup: September 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere and Related Events, J. Atmosph. Sci., 62, 3, 668–689, 2005. Solomon, S.: Stratospheric ozone depletion: A review of concepts and history, Rev. Geophys., 37, 275–316, 1999. Steig, E. J., Schneider, D. P., Rutherford, S. D., Mann, M. E., Comiso, J. C., and Shindell, D. T.: Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year, Nature, 457, 459–463, 2009. Stolarski, R. S., McPeters, R. D., and Newman, P. A.: The Ozone Hole of 2002 as Measured by TOMS, J. Atmosph. Sci., 62, 3, 716–720, 2005. Tiao, G. C., Xu, D., Pedrick, J. H., Zhu, X., and Reinsel, G. C.: Effect of autocorrelation and temporal schemes on estimates of trend and spatial correlation, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 20507–20517, 1990. Tiefenau, H. K. E. and Gebbeken, A.: Influence of meteorological balloons on temperature measurements with radiosondes: nighttime cooling and daylight heating, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 6, 36–42, 1989. Thompson, D. W. J. and Solomon, S.: Interpretation of recent southern hemisphere climate change, Science, 296, 895–899, 2002. Thompson, D. W. J. and Solomon, S.: Recent Stratospheric Climate Trends as Evidenced in Radiosonde Data: Global Structure and Tropospheric Linkages, J. Climate, 18, 4785–4795, 2005. Thompson, D. W. J. and Solomon, S.: Understanding Recent Stratospheric Climate Change, J. Climate, 22, 1934–1943, 2009. Trenberth, K. E. and Olson J. G.: Temperature trends at the South Pole and McMurdo Sound, J. Clim., 2, 1196–1206, 1989. Turner, J., Lachlan-Cope, T. A., Colwell, S., Marshall, G. J., and Connolley, W. M.: Significant Warming of the Antarctic Winter Troposphere, Science, 311, 1914–1917, 2006. Turner, J., Colwell, S. R., Marshall, G. J., Lachlan-Cope, T. A., Carleton, A. M., Jones, P. D., Lagun, V., Reid, P. A., and Iagovkinaf, S.: Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 279–294, 2005. Waugh, D. W., Randel, W. J., Pawson, S., Newman, P. A., and Nash, E. R.: Persistence of the lower stratospheric polar vortices, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D22), 27191–27201, 1999. WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 37, 584 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, 1995. WMO (World Meteorological Organization), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 50, 572 pp., Geneva, Switzerland, 2007.