Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics www.atmos-chem-phys.net 1680-7316 1680-7324 10 3 2010 10.5194/acp-10-1385-2010 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1385/2010/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1385/2010/acp-10-1385-2010.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1385/2010/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf 1385 1400 2010-02-08 Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations A. Yu. Karpechko alexey.karpechko@fmi.fi N. P. Gillett B. Hassler K. H. Rosenlof E. Rozanov Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, UK Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Canada National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland Physical-Meteorological Observatory/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland now at: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Arctic Research, Helsinki, Finland Stratospheric ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere is expected to drive pronounced trends in atmospheric temperature and circulation from the stratosphere to the troposphere in the 21st century; therefore ozone changes need to be accounted for in future climate simulations. Many climate models do not have interactive ozone chemistry and rely on prescribed ozone fields, which may be obtained from coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations. However CCMs vary widely in their predictions of ozone evolution, complicating the selection of ozone boundary conditions for future climate simulations. In order to assess which models might be expected to better simulate future ozone evolution, and thus provide more realistic ozone boundary conditions, we assess the ability of twelve CCMs to simulate observed ozone climatology and trends and rank the models according to their errors averaged across the individual diagnostics chosen. According to our analysis no one model performs better than the others in all the diagnostics; however, combining errors in individual diagnostics into one metric of model performance allows us to objectively rank the models. The multi-model average shows better overall agreement with the observations than any individual model. 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